The New York Yankees host the Chicago White Sox on Tuesday, June 16. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on YES and MLB.TV.
The Yankees are -144 on the moneyline and -1.5 on the run line. The White Sox are +122 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and White Sox vs Yankees prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
White Sox vs Yankees Prediction
- White Sox vs Yankees Pick: Lean Gerrit Cole Under 5.5 Strikeouts
My White Sox vs Yankees best bet is a lean on Gerrit Cole's strikeout prop. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
White Sox vs Yankees Odds
| White Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -188 | 7.5 -122o / -100u | +122 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 7.5 -122o / -100u | -144 |
- White Sox vs Yankees Moneyline: White Sox +122, Yankees -144
- White Sox vs Yankees Over/Under: 7.5 (-122 / -100)
- White Sox vs Yankees Run Line: White Sox +1.5 (-188), Yankees -1.5 (+155)
White Sox vs Yankees Probable Pitchers
| Davis Martin (RHP, CWS) | Stat | Gerrit Cole (RHP, NYY) |
|---|---|---|
| 9-2 | W-L | 1-1 |
| 2.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.4 |
| 2.41 / 3.80 | ERA / xERA | 2.45 / 2.87 |
| 2.38 / 3.15 | FIP / xFIP | 4.19 / 4.57 |
| 19.8% | K-BB% | 13.5% |
| 43.3% | GB% | 30.2% |
| .314 | BABIP | .230 |
| 91 | Stuff+ | 100 |
| 98 | Location+ | 102 |
White Sox vs Yankees MLB Betting Preview
Chicago White Sox Betting Preview
Davis Martin is having the breakout season nobody expected, and it doesn’t appear to be a fluke, with his 2.41 ERA matching a 2.39 FIP.
Yes, he’s been a bit fortunate that only three of his 13 barrels have left the yard, and the 4.5% HR/FB is not sustainable.
However, even when you consider remaining non-pitch modeling estimators ranging from a 3.15 xFIP to a 3.79 xERA, it’s been a helluva ride.
Martin has exploded his K-BB from 9.3% last season and a career high 10.9% in 2024 to 19.8% this year. He’s done that with career best marks in O-Swing (34.9%), Contact (74.4%), SwStr (12.6%), and CStr (16.4%).
Career high swinging strike rates for the slider (26%) and cutter (14.4%) have made a major difference, but partially because he’s now throwing six different pitches between 13% and 26% of the time. Martin is also allowing a career low 6.1% Barrels/BBE and is already within three pop-ups of his career high of 12.
The caveat here is that pitch modeling is not much of a fan, generating a 4.54 botERA and 90 Pitching+. If you look at his recent PitcherList game cards, you rarely see him surpassing a D for stuff.
Yet all of his PitchingBot components (Stuff, Command, Overall) are at least average (50), and I often find that pitchers who beat their pitch-modeling numbers are the ones throwing many different pitches and mixing them up well.
Also, with Aaron Judge out (and now Trent Gresham), no projected Yankees have positive pitch run value matchups against Martin’s arsenal.
While the Yankees have a booming 123 wRC+ at home and 110 against RHP, the projected lineup absent two of their best hitters has just a 101 mark against RHP since last season and averages a 24.3% strikeout rate with Jasson Dominguez (23.9%), Jazz Chisholm Jr. (28.3%), Ryan McMahon (31.8%), and Spencer Jones (40.5%) the worst offenders.
Sure, the latter has a mighty small sample size, but regularly ran strikeout rates above 30% in the minors, and that generally doesn’t decrease upon reaching the majors.
One area where Martin has not helped himself is stopping the running game. Even though runners have only taken off on 1.2% of opportunities, he’s already accumulated -2 Net Bases Prevented. Only 29 pitchers who have allowed at least one steal attempt have reached -3.
Drew Romo has only thrown out 26% of runners, but is also one of only 25 catchers in the league to have accumulated at least 1 CS Above Average.
Chisholm (20 SB, 1 Run via SB, +3 BRR) is the best Yankee base runner and stealer by far. Only McMahon (1) also has a positive Runs via SB via Statcast on this team.
The White Sox are a top 10 defense via Runs Prevented (7) and OAA (10), while their projected defense for Tuesday has a positive 15 FRV (Fielding Run Value).
Chicago only has the 20th-best bullpen estimators over the past 30 days with a 4.47 FIP, 4.40 xFIP, and 3.84 SIERA, far worse than their 3.60 ERA. As you can see, BARTOLO rates the White Sox as the second-worst bullpen in the league.
New York Yankees Betting Preview
I’ve drawn Gerrit Cole for a second consecutive start. I literally said that I don’t know what to make of it (his first three starts), and they told me to try again, so I will with an added fourth data point.
Some of this will be repeated/updated information from last Tuesday.
Cole’s first four starts back from Tommy John surgery:
- 6 IP – 0 R – 3 BB – 2 K (vs TBR): Cole’s velocity (96.2 MPH) was in line with his 2024 season (95.9 MPH), where he only threw 95 innings and had his lowest K-BB rate (17.9%) since Pittsburgh. It was a 0.8-MPH drop from 2024. He produced just a 5.4% SwStr, a 4.45 botERA, and 80 Pitching+ for the game (good results, awful underlying performance).
- 6.2 IP – 0 R – 0 BB – 10 K (@ KCR): Cole’s velocity increased to 96.4 MPH with his swinging strike rate jumping to 15.2%, as he carved through a fairly contact-prone Kansas City lineup. His pitch modeling improved to a 2.86 botERA and 112 Pitching+ (Great results, great performance).
- 5.1 IP – 4 R – 1 BB – 2 K (v CLE): Cole’s velocity increased to 96.8 MPH, and his pitch modeling improved to a 2.45 botERA and 112 Pitching+, but he allowed his first two barrels with eight of his 14 hard hit batted balls this season and just a 2.4% SwStr. In his defense, he allowed one more home run than barrels (poor results, confusing performance).
- 4 IP – 2 R – 2 BB – 4 K (@ CLE) – Cole’s velocity continued to improve (97.6 MPH), but he threw a season high 84 pitches in just four innings. His 4.25 botERA and 94 Pitching+ were better than only his first start. He produced only a 4.8% SwStr, but generated eight of his 14 batted balls on the ground with a 35.7% HardHit (below average results and performance).
Well, that certainly clears things up, right?
One thing to note is that he’s faced more than twice as many LHBs (61) as RHBs (28) because getting Cleveland in half your starts will do that to you. They only have a .268 wOBA, but a 14.8% K-BB from that side compared to .323 and 10.7% for RHBs.
Cole now has a 2.45 ERA with a 4.41 SIERA, 2.80 xERA, 3.47 botERA, and 100 Pitching+. The problem is clearly not the velocity, contact profile (30.2% HardHit), or control (6.7% BB), but his inability to miss bats so far (20.2% K, 6.9% SwStr). His 21.1% CStr is probably unsustainable (17.4% career, 19.7% career high in his second year in Pittsburgh).
His ERA projections run from 3.92 (OOPSY) to 4.53 (The BAT X). The BAT generally assumes a higher offensive environment and runs about a half run above most other projection systems, but the consensus on the rest of them is still right around four, just as it was before his last start, and that’s just about how he’s performed through four outings.
PitcherList has granted Cole B or B- stuff grades in all four of his starts on their pitcher game log cards.
The White Sox are generally running seven LHBs against RHPs, which further stacks the platoon advantage against Cole (unless he’s a legit reverse splitter now, though it’s certainly too early to tell). The career high 15.5% changeup usage is probably a result of the lineups he’s facing and should continue here.
Chicago has been average against RHP either by team numbers (101 wRC+) or projected lineup since last season (105). Only Colson Montgomery (94), Jacob Gonzalez (87), and Drew Romo (-1) have been below-average hitters over the last month overall. Andrew Benintendi (137) has been one of the team’s hottest hitters.
Runners have taken off on 1.7% of chances against Cole, who has been neutral at holding them. J.C. Escarra has been below average at throwing them out (20%, -1 CSAA).
Sam Antonacci (10 SB, 0 BRR) and Miguel Vargas (9 SB, 1 BRR and Runs via SB) are the two White Sox most likely to run. Lusangel Acuna leads the club with 12 SB, 3 BRR, and 2 Runs via SB, but does not play against RHP.
The Yankees have been a middling defense this year with -2 Runs Prevented and -2 OAA. The projected lineup has 7 FRV with all of their positive value coming from Cody Bellinger (4) and Chisholm Jr. (2), though injuries have given newer players opportunities to prove themselves, and only Ben Rice (-1 FRV) has been below average.
The Yankee bullpen has the sixth-best estimator over the last month with a 3.61 FIP/3.91 xFIP/3.69 SIERA. They are Bartolo's 11th-best-rated bullpen.
White Sox vs Yankees Pick, Betting Analysis
Though power-friendly, Yankee Stadium is only a slightly positive run environment (102 Park Run Factor). The tricky thing is that it plays more power-friendly for RHBs (120 HR Factor) than LHBs (114) now, but that may simply be a factor of Judge slapping home runs the other way.
We don’t yet have an umpire assignment for the first game of this series, and the weather is not expected to impact the game much as of this writing.
It would probably sound crazy more than a month ago, but I don’t feel I have any choice but to rate Martin a half run better than Cole. BARTOLO has the gap a bit closer, but still in favor of Martin.
Until he proves otherwise, Cole’s projections and performance are what they are. He’s only really missing the swing and miss in his game, but that’s a major thing to be missing.
I still rate the remaining Yankee offense slightly better than the White Sox (less than five points of wRC+).
If projected lineups are accurate, the White Sox will have a defensive edge and give up a few base-running runs to the Yankees. The Yankees clearly have the better bullpen.
I went into this fully expecting to be on the White Sox as at least a moderate dog, but was surprised to find the best price only +122, not far enough from the margin of error on my projected +115. Their +110 F5 line is even tighter.
I have the total closer to eight than the 7.5 offered by the market, but still within a larger margin of error, considering the small sample size, not only for Cole, but also for several Yankee fill-ins now.
If we expect Cole to continue to miss bats at the rate he has, then under 4.5 strikeouts (+108 FanDuel) would be our play, but I’m not confident enough that he will, especially with his velocity continuing to rise by the start, so I’ll keep it as a lean for now.
Pick: Lean Gerrit Cole Under 5.5 Strikeouts
