The Chicago Cubs (11-7) and San Diego Padres (13-3) clash on Monday night at Petco Park. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET on Marquee Sports Network and Padres.TV.
The Cubs are roaring after winning their series against the Dodgers over the weekend, while the Padres enter Monday on a four-game winning streak after sweeping the Rockies.
What can we expect from Monday's series opener? Find my Cubs vs Padres prediction and pick below.
My Cubs vs Padres Prediction
- Cubs vs Padres picks: Over 7.5 (+100) | Play to Over 8 (-110)
My Cubs vs Padres best bet is Over 7.5 (+100). Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres Odds
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 7.5 +100o / -120u | +125 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 7.5 +100o / -120u | -150 |
- Cubs vs Padres Moneyline: Cubs +125, Padres -150
- Cubs vs Padres Total: 7.5 (+100o/ -120u)
- Cubs vs Padres Spread: Cubs +1.5 (-170), Padres -1.5 (+145)
Cubs vs Padres Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Jameson Taillon (CHC) | Stat | RHP Dylan Cease (SD) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | W-L | 1-1 |
| 0.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.4 |
| 6.06 / 5.31 | ERA /xERA | 7.98 / 3.65 |
| 5.19 / 4.04 | FIP / xFIP | 2.65 / 3.34 |
| 1.35 | WHIP | 1.57 |
| 14.1% | K-BB% | 18.2% |
| 32.7% | GB% | 35.7% |
| 96 | Stuff+ | 107 |
| 113 | Location+ | 107 |
Cubs vs Padres Preview & Prediction
Cubs Betting Preview: Cubs Need Taillon To Improve
The Cubs are fresh off an improbable series win over the Dodgers in Los Angeles, picking up consecutive wins with the back end of their rotation.
Now, they'll turn it over to Jameson Taillon, who has been off to a rocky start in 2025.
Taillon came home with a 3.27 ERA a season ago, backed by an excellent walk rate and a decent-enough .256 Expected Batting Average (xBA) on an even distribution of ground and fly balls. This season, he's allowed more contact in the air, which has led to a .289 xBA and unsightly .542 Expected Slugging (xSLG) — despite actually carrying a lower hard-hit rate through three outings.
The trajectory off the bat is what to note here, considering his line-drive rate has spiked eight points to 30.2%. Keeping the ball in the air or on the ground will be the key to righting the ship.
Offensively, the Cubs are rockin'.
Despite slow starts from Ian Happ and top prospect Matt Shaw, they rank second in wRC+ and continue to exhibit some of the best plate discipline in the league with an 11.4% walk rate and a low 19.9% strikeout rate.
Their strikeout-to-walk ratio is the second-best in the league, and they have a spicy .183 Isolated Power (ISO) to boot.
Padres Betting Preview: Cease Under Pressure
The Padres have a similar offense, sitting just a few spots lower than Chicago in K/BB% — but that's been largely due to another stellar year in terms of limiting strikeouts.
The Friars are walking at a below-average clip, and their .140 ISO isn't the mark they'd be hoping for early in the season, but the good news is that all those swings are turning into baserunners with a beefy .283 batting average.
That's more than enough to support a pitching staff that will have the second-best ERA in the big leagues on Monday, though they'll certainly be holding their breath with Dylan Cease stepping to the mound.
It's true that I've been one of Cease's biggest critics — his tendency to sell out for Ks carries with it a high degree of volatility — but this is a nightmarish matchup when you consider the Cubs aren't chasing, and they're slugging the ball on top of that.
Cease has started off the year on a sour note with a 7.98 ERA, and while his 3.66 xERA will entice some folks to bet on a rebound, there's a little trouble brewing beneath the surface.
Cease's strikeout rate is down two points to 27.3%, and his walk rate remains a concern at 9.1%. He's not only taken a step backward in those areas, but he's rolling up fewer ground balls and conceding a ton more line drives.
In order for Cease to operate at the high level we know he's capable of, he needs to get opponents to chase their way into two-strike counts and induce fly balls inside his pitcher-friendly park.
So far, he's failed to do so — and it's not even excusable considering he allowed a season-high three walks last time out against the Athletics, who rank 22nd in walk rate.
Cubs vs Padres Prediction, Betting Analysis
I couldn't think of a worse matchup for both starting pitchers considering each offense ranks top-four in line drives this season, and each has shown sustainable production in their own ways.
Taillon has been a strike-throwing machine, but he's struggled mightily when it comes to recording outs — and now he meets a team ranked fourth in xBA this season.
Cease, meanwhile, should only see his strikeout and walk numbers head the wrong way against the second-most disciplined team in the league after Arizona, and the Cubs have managed to rise into fifth place in ISO with an even distribution of extra-base hits and home runs. A larger ballpark shouldn't slow their roll, and Cease certainly shouldn't, given how he's started the year — and how he's worked historically.
This is about the most glorious spot you could ask for to play an Over.
While I'd normally opt for the first five innings (F5) to avoid this Padres bullpen, Chicago's stable ranks 21st through the first couple of weeks and its offense just torched a very capable Dodgers bullpen.
Pick: Over 7.5 (+100)
Moneyline
We're tracking some sharp money hitting the Cubs, and I can't blame them. I'd certainly take Chicago at this price as the better of the two sides, and on top of that, it's received a hefty 16% more of the handle than the tickets.
Run Line (Spread)
The Cubs and Padres are both 11-5 to the run line in their past 16 games. While the Padres are an excellent 9-1 at home, the Cubs are just 4-3-1 as road underdogs. Still, they're 7-3 ATS in their last 10.
Over/Under
The sharps are also targeting the Under here with the majority of the money on the Over.
It's cashed in just one of the Cubs' last three games, but they've all gone 12-5-1 to the Over.
Cubs vs Padres Betting Trends
- 74% of bets and 67% of the money are on the Padres moneyline
- 97% of bets and 97% of the money are on the game total to go OVER
- 79% of bets and 88% of the money are on the Padres to cover the run line (-1.5)
Cubs Betting Trends
- Cubs are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Cubs are 7-3 in their road games against the spread
Padres Betting Trends
- Padres are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Padres' 10 last games at home
