The Milwaukee Brewers host the Chicago Cubs on October 6, 2025. First pitch from American Family Field is scheduled for 9:08 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on TBS.
After a six-day layoff entering the series opener, the Brewers exhibited zero signs of rust during a convincing 9-3 win. Milwaukee is a slight favorite in Game 2, as Shota Imanaga (3.73 ERA, 144 and 2/3 IP) will face off against Aaron Ashby (2.23 ERA, 64 and 2/3 IP), who will presumably be followed by Quinn Priester (3.32 ERA, 157 and 1/3 IP).
Find my MLB betting preview and Cubs vs Brewers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Cubs vs Brewers Prediction
- Cubs vs Brewers pick: Under 7.5
My Cubs vs Brewers best bet is on the under total runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Cubs vs Brewers Odds
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | +110 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -130 |
Cubs vs Brewers Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Shota Imanaga (CHC) | Stat | LHP Aaron Ashby (MIL) |
|---|---|---|
| 9-8 | W-L | 5-2 |
| 0.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.2 |
| 3.73/4.23 | ERA /xERA | 3.62/3.37 |
| 4.86/4.51 | FIP / xFIP | 3.46/3.12 |
| 0.99 | WHIP | 1.17 |
| 16.0% | K-BB% | 25.0% |
| 29.2% | GB% | 33.3% |
| 97 | Stuff+ | 123 |
| 109 | Location+ | 103 |
Nick Martin’s Cubs vs Brewers Preview
Chicago Cubs Betting Preview: Imanaga Looks to Rebound After Uneven Postseason Start
The Brewers shelled Matthew Boyd early in Game 1, generating a massive six-run first inning and forcing Craig Counsell to employ three of their four long relievers to handle the rest of the game. After not utilizing most top relievers on Saturday and having an off-day Sunday, Counsell should be eager to allow his elite bullpen arms the opportunity to work in this matchup.
Since August 1st, the Cubs bullpen has pitched to an ERA of 3.60, ranks first with an xFIP of 3.13, and also holds the highest strikeout minus walk rate in baseball of 21.5%. Oddsmakers aren't banking on Imanaga pitching overly deep into this matchup, setting his recorded outs prop at 12.5.
Imanaga last pitched in Game 2 of the Wild Card round versus the Padres, allowing three hits and two earned runs in four innings of work. Imanaga did not enter the postseason in overly strong form, as in his last ten starts, he has pitched to an ERA of 4.38 and has been hit hard 49.4% of the time. He held a FIP of 4.98 in those outings and a Pitching+ rating of 98 compared to an average of 102 across the entirety of the season.
Imanaga will be making his fourth start of the season versus the Brewers in this matchup. He fared well in those matchups, pitching to an ERA of 3.57 across 17 and 2/3 innings of work, including a strong performance in their most recent matchup, allowing two earned runs across seven innings.
After suffering from an offensive lull following the All-Star break, the Cubs' high-powered offense found its footing once again in the final month of the season, hitting to a wRC+ of 113 with an OPS of .762.
Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview: Aim to Extend Hot Streak at Home
Ashby allowed zero hits while recording four outs in Game 1, stretching his current shutout streak to 11 and 2/3 innings. In 36 innings of work since August 1st, he has allowed an ERA of 2.25 and an xFIP of 2.90. He's struck out 29.5% of batters in that span and owns an elite Stuff+ rating of 126.
Priester also finished the season in strong form, pitching to an ERA of 3.42 and a 3.97 xFIP throughout his final 50 innings of work. He allowed a hard-hit rate of just 28.7% in that span and held a 3.99 SIERA.
The sustainability of Milwaukee's offensive style is a question mark entering this postseason, as from a statistical perspective, it fared much better than expected on infield ground balls. The Brewers possess plenty of speed up and down the lineup and did an excellent job of manufacturing runs with weak contact as a result.
Milwaukee's offensive performance regressed in the final month of the season, as it posted a wRC+ of 101 and ranked 23rd in slugging percentage. The Brewers also ranked 23rd in hard-hit rate in September. Although the team has been effective without generating much hard contact this season, the drop-off in actual production does suggest that naysayers were right in predicting negative offensive regression.
Cubs vs Brewers Prediction, Betting Analysis
While betting the under in a game featuring an opener and a fairly average starter in Imanaga, a total of 7.5 still appears to be too high, all things considered.
Imanaga will get a very short leash in this matchup, as he is backed by one of the best bullpens in baseball, and Counsell will likely be aggressive in deploying his top relievers while looking to avoid a 0-2 hole in the series. The Cubs offer one of the best infields in baseball defensively, which should prove to be a strength in this series, even if it wasn't much of a factor in Game 1, where the Brewers crushed Matthew Boyd and Mike Soroka.
Ashby has been untouchable recently and will be supported by Priester and a strong Brewers bullpen, which should allow Pat Murphy the ability to create tough matchups for Cubs hitters in this matchup.
At -115 or better, I see value in backing this game to feature under 7.5 runs.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-105, Bet365; Play to -115)
Moneyline
There does not appear to be value in backing either side at the current prices, but I will be interested in attempting to get the Cubs at close to even money if the game is tied once Imanaga exits.
Run Line (Spread)
I do not see value in betting either team to cover the run-line.
Over/Under
As outlined, backing the game to feature under 7.5 runs is my favorite play from this matchup.
Cubs vs Brewers Parlay
- Aaron Ashby Over 5.5 Outs Recorded
- Shota Imanaga Under 12.5 Outs Recorded
- Under 8.5 Runs
Parlay odds: +480 (bet365)
There is some negative correlation in backing Imanaga to record less than 13 outs as well as the game total to stay under 8.5, but that is the main reason for the long number on our parlay, and in this specific situation I'm happy with how much longer it makes our price.
Ashby has been in tremendous form recently and should be a safe bet to record six outs unless things go quite astray, at which point the under will likely be in trouble anyways.
Counsell will likely be eager to make sure all of his top relievers get into this game. Obviously if Imanaga pitches too poorly it will ruin our chances of coming in under 8.5 runs, but Imanaga certainly does not need to entirely fall apart to co
Cubs vs Brewers Betting Trends
