The Pittsburgh Pirates host the Atlanta Braves on July 7, 2026. First pitch from PNC Park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SportsNet PT.
The Pirates are -126 on the moneyline. The Braves are +108 on the moneyline. The total is set at 9 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Braves vs Pirates prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Braves vs Pirates Prediction
Braves vs Pirates Picks:
- Over 8 (-108, .54u | Bet through 8)
- Pirates TT Over 4.5 (+108, 0.5u | Bet to -130)
Braves vs Pirates Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -188 | 9 -112o / -108u | +108 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 9 -112o / -108u | -126 |
Braves vs Pirates Probable Pitchers
| Hurston Waldrep (RHP, ATL) | Stat | Paul Skenes (RHP, PIT) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | W-L | 6-8 |
| -0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.7 |
| 3.68 / NA | ERA / xERA | 3.62 / 2.76 |
| 5.43 / 4.49 | FIP / xFIP | 3.03 / 3.15 |
| 5.9% | K-BB% | 24.6% |
| 71.4% | GB% | 40.7% |
| .300 | BABIP | .275 |
| 91 | Stuff+ | 98 |
| 75 | Location+ | 111 |
Braves vs Pirates MLB Betting Preview
Atlanta Braves Betting Preview
Hurston Waldrep has made 12 major league starts and two relief appearances (his first outings this year and last year), covering 70 2/3 innings for the Braves over parts of three seasons.
He graduated with a 45 Future Value grade from the Fangraphs prospect list last season and showed signs of being better with a 14.4 K-BB%, just six barrels and a 38.9 HardHit% plus 49.3% of his contact on the ground.
However, after posting a 20.2 K-BB%, 50 GB% and 30.5 HardHit% with two barrels over his first four outings of 2025, Waldrep finished with a 10.7 K-BB%, 48.9 GB% and 44.4 HardHit% with four barrels over his last six starts before missing the first half of the 2026 season on the injured list.
After throwing two relief innings, Waldrep made his first 2026 start last Thursday, allowing three runs over 5 1/3 innings to the Cardinals. He’s struck out seven of the 34 batters he’s faced this year, while walking five with a single barrel, just seven hard-hit batted balls (33%), and a 71.4 GB%.
Waldrep is a sinkerballer (42.7% this year, 18.3% last season) with his velocity on that pitch down 1.2 MPH so far. He is now using his curveball (17.6% 2026, 13.2% last year), cutter (17.6%, 22%), and splitter (16.8%, 32.4%) equally as secondaries.
Interesting that he’s chosen to cut his splitter usage in half, as it was labeled his best pitch in Fangraphs scouting reports (70), while the only other pitch they graded with above-average future aspirations is a slider he’s thrown just 5.3% of the time so far.
That slider is the only offering either pitch-modeling system gives an above-average overall grade to this year (103 Pitching+). Waldrep has earned a 6.17 BotERA and 76 Pitching+ overall. It’s basically below average stuff with terrible command.
Most projection systems rate him as a slightly below-average pitcher, between 4.25 and 4.5. You can see his current 4.43 projection via BARTOLO.
I can’t find much reason to suggest that Waldrep will once again reach his early-rookie-season heights, but perhaps that’s because of the small sample size. There may be some positive volatility here, but for now, I’m forced to rely on the projections.
If the Pirates are struggling at all, it’s certainly not because of their offense, which has an 119 wRC+ at home, 117 wRC+ against RHP and 133 wRC+ over the last seven days (all stats through Sunday).
A projected lineup that’s mostly healthy outside of Oneil Cruz averages a 127 wRC+ and .187 ISO against RHP, 147 wRC+ at home and 127 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
Konnor Griffin’s 99 wRC+ against RHP is the lowest in that projected lineup (via BARTOLO), Nick Gonzales’s 99 wRC+ at home is the lowest, and Brandon Lowe (85) is the only projected batter below an 85 wRC+ over the last month.
The Pirates went out and spent modestly to upgrade their offense to a level of competence, believing the pitching might carry them into the post-season for the first time in over a decade, yet it’s the offense carrying the load while the pitching struggles more than expected.
Only the Dodgers have a higher wRC+ overall or against RHP than the Pirates this year.
Waldrep has been below average at holding base runners (-2 Net Bases Prevented since last season), while Drake Baldwin has been one of the worst catchers in the league at throwing out base runners (5% CS). Only two catchers are worse than Baldwin’s -4 CS Above Average via Statcast this year.
The Pirates are fifth in the majors in stolen bases with 86 and should have no trouble running on this combination. Konnor Griffin leads the active roster with 20 stolen bases. Jake Mangum (17) the only other player with more than six.
From an advanced statistical perspective, the Pirate projected lineup has accumulated 5 BRR (Base Running Runs), led by Griffin’s 4, including 2 from stolen bases. Bryan Reynolds is the only other projected starter with even 1 Run via Stolen Base (Statcast).
The Braves have the sixth-best defense via Runs Prevented (9) and OAA (11), with the projected defense accumulating 6 FRV (Fielding Run Value). However, their defensive strength is entirely tied up in three players: Michael Harris II (5 FRV), Matt Olson (4), and Mauricio Dubon (4). Nobody else in the projected Atlanta lineup has a positive FRV.
Monday night’s game against the Mets in Atlanta is still being played as of this writing, so I don’t have full usage information (while the Pirates are off), but the Braves back their relief unit’s 2.81 ERA over the last month with a 3.50 FIP, 3.93 xFIP and 3.80 SIERA. When averaged together, those are the fourth-best bullpen estimators in the league over the last 30 days, while BARTOLO ranks them the top unit in the game with a 3.40 wFIP.
Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview
We continue our Tuesday Broken Aces series with Paul Skenes this week.
Is he broken, unlucky, or pitching moderately well but just not up to his usual elite standards?
Cherry-picking endpoints, Skenes has allowed 33 runs (28 earned) over his last 47 innings (5.36 ERA).
Smack in the middle of this nine-start streak (starts five through seven, counting from the back end), Skenes has three straight six-inning, two-run outings.
During this stretch, he has a 22.9 K-BB% and a 3.35 xFIP.
However, he’s also walked at least two in five of his last seven games and has a 37.8 GB%, 8.6% Barrels/BBE, and a 45.3 HardHit% over the nine games.
That’s still a 3.64 xERA, which would land him in our third category in the question above.
If you go by his full-season numbers, Skenes has a 3.62 ERA and is the victim of a career-worst 65.8% LOB%. Aside from a 3.47 Bot ERA and 109 Pitching+, a 3.15 xFIP is his worst indicator.
The only thing that’s really misaligned with his usual numbers is a career-low 40.7 GB%.
The PitchingBot individual pitch grades are aligned with career rates. The Stuff+ is down overall (98) and specifically on his fastball (96) and sinker (96).
Paul Skenes with below-average fastballs? That doesn’t sound right.
His velocity is down 1.2 MPH from last season, still at a healthy 97. But he’s also down to 96.5 MPH over his past three starts, with an 86 Stuff+ grade on his fastball.
The slider remains an elite pitch throughout, but something does seem amiss with the fastball.
First things first, Skenes’s fastball has never been special by iVB and is just a bit above average by extension. In fact, this season’s 12.1 iVB is a career best, and it’s still below average. He averaged 12.2 inches in his last terrible start with 6.9 feet of extension and a 0.8 HAVAA (via PitcherList). All aligned with his season and career rates, none particularly impressive.
The only things that were ever impressive about his fastball were that he threw it hard and located it well. In fact, he generally locates so well that batters are swinging at 40.4% of pitches outside the zone this year, giving him a career-best 15.2 SwStr%.
The velocity is trending down, and the location wasn’t there at the last start (87 Location+), but was in the previous two at reduced velocity.
LHBs in particular have been a problem for Skenes over this nine-start stretch (.362 wOBA), but he can still succeed with his other pitches despite reduced fastball velocity, as long as he’s locating them well.
As to why his velocity is down, I don’t know pitching mechanics well enough to tell you. His arm angle is unchanged. It could just be a mid-season lull, the old dead arm, or something else.
Skene’s 14.6 SwStr% over his last three starts is fine. 15.3% over his last seven starts.
It’s part of the strand rate, which should resolve itself. I’d be more concerned with his command of the fastball than its velocity right now (unless it continues to tumble). It’s really only been one or two games with poor command.
As for whether he’s broken, unlucky, or just plain human rather than elite, I’d say 50% the second, maybe 30-35% the third, and 15-20% he's broken (injured).
Understand I just pulled those percentages out of my you know what, but like I’m going to have to trust the projections on Waldrep, I’ll just have to trust what Skenes has done in the majority of his starts and in his overall numbers rather than fear the worst because of his past two, in which he’s stranded hardly anyone.
The Atlanta offense he is projected to face is, well, they’re not the Pirates. The Braves have a team 100 wRC+ on the road and 101 against RHPs. The projected lineup has a 98 wRC+ (.158 ISO) against RHP, 103 wRC+ on the road, and 80 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
Their numbers against RHP have been dragged down by whoever’s been in the ninth spot and by injuries. Right now, it’s expected to be Jim Jarvis closing out the lineup. There’s also the absence of Ronald Acuna Jr., sometimes even when he was in the lineup.
Michael Harris, Matt Olson, and Mauricio Dubon are the only three projected Braves to be both above a 100 wRC+ over the last 30 days and against RHP. It’s no wonder they’ve been struggling since the start of June.
Some guys were playing over their heads in the absence of others, and it lasted longer than anybody really expected, but not all season.
It would seem unfair that Skenes also holds runners well (3 Net Bases Prevented). I mean, he hardly has any practice. Endy Rodriguez has been nearly as bad as Baldwin at throwing them out (7 CS%), but only has a small enough sample size to have accumulated -1 CSAA so far.
The Braves pilfered stolen-base guru Antoan Richardson from the Mets so they could steal all of 46 bases (22nd-most) over their first 90 games. They’ve been caught 16 times. They did make headlines for leading the league in pickoffs about a month ago.
No projected Atlanta starter has more than five stolen bases. Harris is the only Brave in negative BRR ground, but at -3, he brings the entire lineup down to 0. Nobody has more than 1 BRR either.
The worst part of this Pittsburgh team is the defense, ranking 22nd in Runs Prevented (-12) and OAA (- 14). The projected defense is at -10 FRV, buoyed by Brandon Lowe’s 6 FRV, but sunk by Griffin (-4), a sometimes out-of-position Ryan O’Hearn (-4), Bryan Reynolds (-3), and Nick Gonzales (-3).
Though not as bad as their 4.72 ERA over the last month, the Pirate bullpen ranks only 21st in estimators, with a 4.86 FIP, 4.37 xFIP, and 4.07 SIERA. BARTOLO ranks them middle of the pack (13th) with a 3.88 wFIP.
Braves vs Pirates Pick, Betting Analysis
Pittsburgh’s PNC Park boosts run scoring by 2% in Statcast’s three-year rolling park factors. While it slightly suppresses left-handed home runs by 4%, the park absolutely crushes right-handed power (28%). That helps you understand why Pittsburgh endeavored to add LHBs this offseason.
The current forecast suggests the game will start just above 80 degrees and dip into the 70s, with little wind impact. There is some chance of rain, and depending on your forecast of choice, weather impact could be anywhere from nothing to a 5% boost to run scoring.
We do not yet know who the umpires will be for the first game of this series.
I rate Skenes more than a run ahead of Waldrep. Close to a run and a third, to be more precise, with Skenes just a bit above three.
Where I differ most with BARTOLO is offensively. I believe in what the Pirates have done with a more than half-season sample size and have them well ahead of an Atlanta lineup still missing Acuna.
The Braves have a moderate defensive edge (16 FRV by projected lineups).
The Braves have the better bullpen whether you’re following last 30-day estimators or BARTOLO rankings. However, Raisel Iglesias just blew the save, and the game is now in extra innings in Atlanta, which could affect reliever availabilities on Tuesday, not to mention a later flight to Pittsburgh.
I thought I would be on the home favorite here, but the Pirates are getting just about the amount of respect I project they should. They’re fairly heavy favorites.
I do have this game a bit higher-scoring than the current total, mostly on the Pittsburgh side. I’m splitting a unit between the game total (8) and Pirates team total (4.5).
If forced to choose, I would favor the Pittsburgh team total more, but 8 is a great number too if you’re worried about Skenes or the potential of a rain interruption, plus a 4-4 tie gets you there too.
Picks:
- Over 8 (-108, .54u | Bet through 8)
- Pirates TT Over 4.5 (+108, 0.5u | Bet to -130)
