The Philadelphia Phillies host the Arizona Diamondbacks on April 10, 2026. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on NBCS-PH+.
The Phillies are favored by -188 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Diamondbacks are +158 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Diamondbacks vs Phillies prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Diamondbacks vs Phillies Predictions, Pick
- Diamondbacks vs Phillies Pick: Under 8.5 (Play to 8 -105)
My Diamondbacks vs Phillies best bet is on the Under. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Diamondbacks vs Phillies Odds, Spread, Line
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -132 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | +158 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +110 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -188 |
- Diamondbacks vs Phillies spread: Phillies -1.5 (+110), Diamondbacks +1.5 (-132)
- Diamondbacks vs Phillies over/under: 8.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Diamondbacks vs Phillies moneyline: Diamondbacks +158, Phillies -188
Diamondbacks vs Phillies Probable Pitchers
| Mike Soroka (RHP) | Stat | Jesus Luzardo (LHP) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | W-L | 1-1 |
| 0.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | TKTKTK |
| 0.90 / 5.76 | ERA / xERA | TKTKTK |
| 2.05 / 3.18 | FIP / xFIP | TKTKTK |
| 1.20 | WHIP | TKTKTK |
| 21.4% | K-BB% | TKTKTK |
| 45.8% | GB% | TKTKTK |
| 93 | Stuff+ | TKTKTK |
| 106 | Location+ | TKTKTK |
Diamondbacks vs Phillies Expert MLB Pick
How To Bet My Diamondbacks vs Phillies Pick, Best Bet
Corbin Carroll (hip tightness) was scratched from Thursday's game against the Mets, and considering his odd injury history, I'd say he's more likely to sit again on Friday than he is to play.
As a result, my above projection reflects a Carroll-free Diamondbacks lineup. If he did play, I'd upgrade their chances by more than 4%, to +144, and my projected total would increase by one-third of a run (closer to 8).
The betting market also reflects his likely absence. The Phillies opened around -165, with the Diamondbacks at +140, and the line has since ticked towards the home team (now -180).
I would take +160 or better on Arizona if Caroll happened to play.
I would have shown value on the Under regardless of his lineup status, but the edge would grow in his absence.
Take the Under to 8 (-105) assuming Carroll is out, or 8.5 (-115) if he manages to suit up.
The wind is blowing out in Philly (9-10 mph to center field). Still, I trust the quality from Jesus Luzardo (2.91 xERA, 2.90 xFIP, 25% K-BB since the second-half of 2025) and a resurgent Mike Soroka (3.72 xERA, 4.11 xFIP, 17.8% K-BB%) to hold the scoring environment in check early.
Pick: Under 8.5 (Play to 8 -105)
