Twins vs. Marlins Odds & Betting Predictions - July 2, 2025

The Twins have been shutout in back-to-back games, but it came against two tough pitchers in Skubal and Cabrera. Now they get a much easier matchup against Janson Junk who finally returned to Earth in his most recent outing (3.2 IP, 8 HA, 5 ER @ SF). His overall numbers still look very strong this season (3.73 ERA, 1.15 WHIP), but the underlying metrics point toward some serious regression. His sample is still relatively small (31.1 innings), but overall he's sporting a 13th percentile whiff rate to go along with an xBA and hard-hit rate in the 1st percentile. In short, he's getting hit harder than nearly every pitcher in the league - that's clearly not a recipe for success. He's also had a tougher time against LHH this season and the Twins will have 5 in the lineup including their 2-3-4 hitters. This should be a matchup where the Twins can take advantage of a mediocre pitcher on the other side. For Minnesota, SWR hasn't been getting deep into games but he's throwing the ball as well as he ever has at this level. Over his L3 starts, against some good competition (HOU, MIL, SEA), SWR has posted a 1.69 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, and 2.40 FIP. While he's certainly due some regression from that level of production, he's more than capable of giving us 5 solid innings here and handing the ball off to one of the better bullpen units in the league. Louie Varland tossed 19 pitches yesterday, but the rest of the Twins bullpen has had 2+ days off. Coming off 3 straight losses and having a fresh bullpen at his disposal, this is a spot where I like the price for MIN.