Mets vs. Cardinals Odds & Betting Predictions - April 1, 2026

Not shying away from laying some juice after yesterday’s rough day. Today is the first slate where most pitchers have a start under their belt, which makes me a lot more confident in my projections and overall process. Peralta grades out as a “moderate sell” in my stock report, and I’m showing value on his under here. He struck out 7 Pirates in his opening start, but that was a pretty soft matchup and graded out closer to 6 adjusted Ks. This is a tougher test against the Cardinals, and St. Louis typically grades as one of the tougher parks to rack up Ks year over year. On top of that, Peralta spent years pitching in Milwaukee, which is one of the more K-friendly parks. That has likely helped inflate his K% a bit over time. Does this mean he can’t get to 7+ Ks today? Of course not. But there are enough subtle factors like that baked into my model that I have this closer to -200.

#EV Pinny -173 BO -154

Luis Robert has a + stolen base matchup vs Matthew Liberatore who allowed 18 steals on 21 attempts last season. He allowed big jumps to baserunners & a high xBA (.272) in 2025. Robert is much better vs LHP as he had a .369 OBP in 2025 (vs .272 vs RHP). Love the price at +400.