Mariners vs. Royals Odds & Betting Predictions - September 17, 2025

HardRock

Cole Ragans is finally back after being out almost four months with an injury. When healthy, Ragans is one of the best pitchers in baseball. He looked sharp in his rehab starts and showed no velocity dips, tossing 6 scoreless innings with 14 strikeouts across 2 outings. It’s incredible how much better of a pitcher Ragans is than his surface numbers suggest. He carries a 5.18 ERA, but owns a 2.74 xERA, 2.47 FIP, 2.59 xFIP, and 2.67 SIERA. These are some of the best expected metrics in MLB. Now healthy, he’s a clear positive regression candidate, and is backed by an elite .201 xBA and a 36.4% strikeout rate (99th percentile). The Mariners lineup is good, but this group has been underwhelming, ranking outside the top 10 in everything except slugging over the last 30 days. They’re also in their worst split against left handed pitching. Backing a pitcher in his first start off the IL is always risky, but Ragans is the real deal. Bryce Miller, meanwhile, hasn’t looked the same this season. He owns a 5.59 ERA with a 5.38 xERA and 5.13 FIP. His Location+ is down 7 points and his Pitching+ is down 10 points from last year. His fastball has a -10 run value and he’s being hard hit 49.1% of the time. The Royals offense isn’t elite, but they’ve seen Miller well before, posting a .278 AVG and .298 xBA across 41 plate appearances. I’ll leave the bullpens out of it and take the Royals F5 moneyline.

Bet to -120