For Wednesday, September 17, I'm on four MLB home run props: Riley Greene, Kyle Manzardo, Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh.
Continue below for my MLB home run prop bets and HR parlay for Wednesday.
Editor's Note: A home run parlay is not the author's formal recommendation. These home run picks have value as straight bets.
MLB Home Run Props, Picks, Odds ā Wednesday, September 17
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 6:40 p.m. | |
| 6:40 p.m. | |
| 7:40 p.m. | |
| 7:40 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
MLB Home Run Picks for September 17
Riley Greene (+500)
vs Guardians (SP: RHP Gavin Williams)
Riley Greene and the rest of the Tigers' power lefties are in a great spot today, and they're priced far too high.
Guardians starter Gavin Williams has been a plus matchup for lefty power this season, allowing a 1.29 HR/9. Additionally, the weather in Detroit is good for hitting, with a potential 13% increase in home runs according to WeatherEdge.
I have the true odds on Greene today around +400, making this a great bet.
Kyle Manzardo (+475)
at Tigers (SP: RHP Jack Flaherty)
Tigers starter Jack Flaherty has been better in the last few months, but overall, he's been a fantastic matchup for lefty power, giving up a large 1.45 HR/9 on the season.
As mentioned, the weather today is a plus for hitting homers, and Kyle Manzardo has been good this season with 26 bombs in 130 games.
I also have the true odds on him today around +400.
Aaron Judge (+262)
at Twins (SP: RHP Taj Bradley)
This is a good spot for Aaron Judge and the Yankees.
The Twins' Taj Bradley has been better at suppressing power this season, but historically, he's been a big plus matchup for power, allowing 1.19 HR/9 to lefties and 1.74 HR/9 to righties.
Given the reverse splits of Bradley, this is an excellent matchup for Judge. I have the true odds on him today around +200.
Cal Raleigh (+375)
at Royals (SP: LHP Cole Ragans)
Cal Raleigh has been the best home run hitter in the league this season, and while I don't like the stadium today, the odds are far too high.
The Mariners switch-hitting slugger has actually been better this season against lefties, hitting a homer every 8.33 at-bats compared to one every 10.8 vs. righties.
Royals starter Cole Ragans is a reverse splits pitcher, but he's still allowed around average power to righties in his career.
I have the true odds on Raleigh around +300 today, making this a great EV bet.
