Dodgers vs. Padres Odds & Betting Predictions - September 28, 2022

Dodgers at Padres

1:40 am • BSSD

Los Angeles Dodgers

11-5

3 - 4

San Diego Padres

4-3

pitcher		team	era	w-l
B.Snell			3.38	8-10
T.Anderson			2.57	15-5

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Dodgers 11-5	-1.5+155	o7.5-113	-106
Padres 4-3	+1.5-190	u7.5-104	-112

Wednesday 1:40 a.m.

September 28, 2022

PETCO ParkSan Diego

SD -109

0.37u

SD -115

LAD +110 (F5)

0.5u

Caesars. Need +110 or better

SD +110

1.1u

For Tuesday. Even before considering the motivation gap between the two teams, my numbers are much higher on the Padres. A lot of that stems from respect for Blake Snell, who has pitched extremely well in his 15 starts since his velocity stabilized. He did struggle against the Dodgers on September 10th, but that's his lone start against them since the All-Star break. The familiarity issue isn't too big with him. I've got this one closer to 60% for the Padres than 50%, so it's possible I'm just super far off, but it also gives me plenty of wiggle room to be too high on San Diego and still be above the market.

Dodgers-Padres: Target This Sneaky Plus-Money F5 Bet
Jules Posner•
Sep 27, 2022 UTC

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The Dodgers are 122-67 (.646) on the road since the 2020 season -- best in MLB; League Avg: .465.

Brandon Drury has 7 home runs on changeups this season -- tied for third most in MLB-- 99th Percentile. Tyler Anderson has thrown his changeup 32% of the time this season -- second highest among qualified SPs-- 97th Percentile.

Trayce Thompson has struck out in 37% of PA's this season -- fifth highest among hitters with at least 228 total PA's-- first Percentile. Blake Snell has a strikeout rate of 32% this season -- sixth highest among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP-- 96th Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Padres are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Padres are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Padres are 47-33 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Padres' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 44 of Padres' 80 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Padres	82-78	35-45	47-33	43-57	37-19
Dodgers	81-79	42-38	39-41	74-67	7-11

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Padres	81-74-5	44-34-2	37-40-3	51-44-5	28-28
Dodgers	88-67-5	45-31-4	43-36-1	79-57-5	9-9

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Padres	93-69	45-35	47-33	58-42	31-25
Dodgers	98-64	52-28	45-35	91-50	6-12

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Sep 25th	@COL	W 13-6	-1.5 W	O 10.5	SD -154
Sep 25th	@COL	W 9-3	-1.5 W	O 10.5	SD -225
Sep 24th	@COL	L 3-4	-1.5 L	U 11	COL -172
Sep 22nd	STL	L 4-5	-1.5 L	O 8	STL -159
Sep 22nd	STL	W 1-0	-1.5 L	U 7.5	SD -135

Clayton Kershaw
P
Kershaw is out with toe
Out
Dustin May
P
May is out with elbow
Out
Tony Gonsolin
P
Gonsolin is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Gavin Stone
P
Stone is out with shoulder
Out
Emmet Sheehan
P
Sheehan is out with arm
Out

Mason McCoy
IF
McCoy is out with back
Out
Ha-Seong Kim
IF
Kim is out with shoulder
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LT.Anderson, P	71	6	3	2
RE.Phillips, P	13	1	2	0
LC.Ferguson, P	15	0.1	0	0
RC.Martin, P	10	0.2	2	0
RT.Kahnle, P	19	1	2	0
RC.Kimbrel, P	19	0.2	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1M.Betts, RF	1-4	0	0
2T.Turner, SS	3-5	2	0
3F.Freeman, 1B	0-2	1	0
4W.Smith, DH	0-5	0	0
5J.Turner, 3B	0-4	0	0
6M.Muncy, 2B	0-3	0	1
7C.Taylor, LF	1-5	0	1
8T. Thompson, CF	0-3	0	0
8C.Bellinger, PH	0-2	0	0
8C.Bellinger, CF	0-2	0	0
9A.Barnes, C	1-4	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LB.Snell, P	96	5	6	0
RN.Martinez, P	26	0.2	0	2
RR.Suarez, P	32	1.1	2	0
RL.Garcia, P	21	1	1	0
LJ.Hader, P	20	1	1	0
RP.Johnson, P	12	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1H.Kim, SS	0-3	0	0
2J.Soto, RF	1-3	0	0
3M.Machado, 3B	0-5	1	0
4B.Drury, 1B	1-4	1	0
5W. Myers, LF	1-2	0	2
5J.Profar, PH	1-2	0	0
5J.Profar, LF	1-2	0	0
5J. Alfaro, C	0-0	0	1
6J.Bell, DH	0-4	0	0
7J.Cronenworth, 2B	1-4	0	0
8A.Nola, C	1-3	0	0
8T.Grisham, PR	0-1	1	0
8T.Grisham, CF	0-1	1	0
9J.Azocar, CF	0-4	1	0
9J.Azocar, LF	0-4	1	0