Diamondbacks vs. Rockies Odds & Betting Predictions - May 16, 2026

Something is off with Merrill Kelly. I don’t know if it’s an injury or just old age, but he has not looked like the same pitcher this season. His ERA and advanced metrics are bleak, and I certainly don’t think it’s going to get any better tonight with him having to pitch at Coors Field. Kelly currently has a brutal 7.62 ERA, but an even worse 9.92 xERA. His 6.64 FIP and 5.66 SIERA are more respectable, but still awful marks overall. Kelly is posting the lowest Stuff+, Location+, and Pitching+ grades of his career, which is another reason I think he could be dealing with an injury. Kelly is 37 years old after all, so it wouldn’t be shocking. When you look at his Savant page, it’s pretty nasty. He has the worst xBA in baseball at .346 and the worst barrel rate in the league at 19.8%. Getting barreled and hard hit at Coors Field is a disaster scenario for any pitcher. The Rockies offense is incompetent on the road, but they have no problems scoring at home. Once Kelly exits, the Rockies get to face a bullpen that ranks 21st in ERA and has been brutal all season. Kyle Freeland will get the ball for Colorado. While he does make batters chase, that’s really all you get with him. He’s talented, but has simply never been able to fully figure it out. He’s had a 4.50+ ERA in five straight seasons and has started this year with a 6.00 ERA and a 5.18 xERA. Freeland is a really hard pitcher to trust because he can go from looking great to collapsing in the blink of an eye. His .288 xBA is concerning, as is his 41.7% hard hit rate. This Diamondbacks offense has been dreadful against right handed pitching, but has been an above average unit against lefties. Let’s not forget Arizona has ranked top 10 in wRC+ against lefties in back to back seasons. The Rockies bullpen also ranks just 20th in ERA and has been worked hard over the last week. I would like this over at any stadium, but this game being at Coors Field makes it 10x better. Coors ranks first in runs scored, and there will be 12-15 MPH winds blowing out to center field tonight. Give me the over 11.5.

(B365) Seven innings of one run, three hit ball with six strikeouts means Merrill Kelly is back after a disastrous first four starts? A 4.69 Bot ERA, 4 Barrels and 64.7 HardHit% say maybe not. ARI 84 wRC+ Rd/103 v RHP/112 proj. LU v LHP since 2025/96 proj, LU L30 days COL 89/97/101/109 (pretty close). Defenses and bullpen estimators L30 days have been comparable. Splitting between F5 and full game. (Need better than even money)