Brewers vs. Diamondbacks Odds & Betting Predictions - September 14, 2024

Brewers at Diamondbacks

1:40 am • BSWI
2 - 1
Starting Pitchers
pitcherteameraw-l
Eduardo Rodriguez logoE.RodriguezArizona Diamondbacks logo5.043-4
Freddy Peralta logoF.PeraltaMilwaukee Brewers logo3.6811-9

Brewers at Diamondbacks Odds

Spread, Total, Moneyline

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Brewers
1-2
-1.5
+1.5-185
o8.5-116
+110
Diamondbacks
0-0
u8.5
-1.5+157
u8.5-103
-130
location pinSaturday 1:40 a.m.
September 14, 2024
Chase FieldPhoenix
Brewers vs. Diamondbacks Expert Picks
Picks  Office
Picks Office
60d ago
Last 30d: 82-114-3 (-39.0u)
Over 8.5-115
1u
It's a great setup to go over with both Freddy Peralta and Eduardo Rodriguez starting, as recent performances and the overall offensive strength of both lineups suggest a higher-scoring game. Peralta has been inconsistent, sporting a 3.38 ERA over his last three starts, but his underlying numbers tell a more concerning story. In just 16 innings, he's allowed 15 hits and 6 earned runs. Demonstrating that even with a respectable ERA, he's still more than vulnerable, particularly against lineups like Arizona that prey on even the tiny mistakes. His habit of yielding home runs-maybe his most concerning trait-is especially concerning against an Arizona team that sits 4th in all of MLB with 191 home runs this year. The power hitters like Ketel Marte-who launched 31 homers-can make one mistake pitch an early run. In his last start against Arizona on October 4, he gave up 4 earned runs over 5 innings, proving this strong Diamondback lineup can get to him often and early in the game. Eduardo Rodriguez's recent form also makes the over all the more tantalizing. Over his last three starts, ERA is an inflated 8.10, as he's allowed 13 earned runs in just 13.1 innings. The Brewers sport a very respectable 4.79 runs per game, a number that's good for 6th in all of MLB, and are more than capable of capitalizing on his recent struggles. He's also given up a lot of hits-35 in his last 29.1 innings-which means runners are always on base and can easily translate into runs, especially given Milwaukee's aggressive style of base running. Ranked 3rd in stolen bases with 187, even when Rodriguez can manage to minimize big hits, the Brewers can still push across extra runs thanks to their speed on the basepaths. Offensively, the Arizona club has been absolutely on fire. They presently lead the league in runs per game at 5.49, batting average at .263, and OPS at .778, as they are fully capable of putting up runs in bunches. They've scored in double digits on multiple occasions of late, including a 14-run outburst against Texas back on September 11th and 12 runs against Houston on September 8th. This, of course, spells trouble for Milwaukee's pitching, as night in and night out Arizona finds ways to get runners on base and cash them in. Arizona's recent trend of running up high scores - like their 14-4 and 14-3 wins - is also a good indicator that they're in excellent form, and another crucial factor in this over bet.
Top Shelf Action 🥃
Top Shelf Action 🥃
60d ago
Last 30d: 211-223-1 (-0.6u)
Over 8.5-110
1u
#ProSystem . hot overs Overall: 369-267-32,58% (ROI:12%) Season:34-23-1,60% (ROI:16%)

PRO Insights

Brewers logo

Brewers

MIL Insights
  • Brewers logoThe Brewers are batting .270 with RISP since last season -- tied for second best in MLB. Opponents are hitting .277 (329-for-1,189) against Diamondbacks RPs with RISP since last season -- fourth worst in MLB.
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Diamondbacks logo

Diamondbacks

ARI Insights
  • Diamondbacks logoDiamondbacks hitters have a groundball rate of 45% over the last two weeks -- tied for fifth highest in MLB. Opponents have a groundball rate of just 37% against Brewers over the last two weeks -- lowest in MLB.
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Brewers vs. Diamondbacks Previews & Analysis

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Brewers vs. Diamondbacks Notes

Prop Odds Comparison

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Line Movement Tracker

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Brewers vs. Diamondbacks Public Betting Percentages

32%

Bets%

68%

Money%

Matchup History

Against the Spread (ATS) History

overallhomeawayfavoriteunderdog
Diamondbacks
82-8037-4445-3637-4843-31
Brewers
87-7544-3743-3843-4843-26

Over/Under History

overallhome o/uaway o/ufavorite o/uunderdog o/u
Diamondbacks
92-64-650-29-242-35-450-33-241-29-4
Brewers
81-70-1140-33-841-37-341-43-740-25-4

Straight-Up (ML) History

overallhomeawayfavoriteunderdog
Diamondbacks
89-7344-3745-3652-3335-39
Brewers
93-6947-3446-3554-3738-31

Last 5 Matchups

dateopponentscorespreadover/undermoneyline
Sep 11thTEXW 14-4-1.5 WO 8.5ARI -164
Sep 11thTEXW 6-0-1.5 WU 8ARI -180
Sep 8th@HOUW 12-6+1.5 WO 8.5ARI +116
Sep 7th@HOUL 5-11+1.5 LO 8HOU +130
Sep 7th@HOUL 0-8+1.5 LO 7.5HOU +140

Brewers vs. Diamondbacks Injury Updates

Brewers Injuries

  • Christian Yelich
    OF

    Yelich is out with back

    Out

  • Brandon Woodruff
    P

    Woodruff is out with shoulder

    Out

  • Robert Gasser
    P

    Gasser is out with elbow

    Out

Diamondbacks Injuries

  • Ryne Nelson
    P

    Nelson is out with shoulder

    Out

Brewers vs. Diamondbacks Box Score
Brewers Player Stats
Projected
PITCHERPCIPKER
Freddy Peralta logoRF.Peralta, P103551
Joel Payamps logoRJ.Payamps, P15120
Jared Koenig logoLJ.Koenig, P14110
Trevor Megill logoRT.Megill, P12100
Devin Williams logoRD.Williams, P14110
HITTERSH-ABRHRRBI
Jackson Chourio logo1J.Chourio, LF1-3000
Garrett Mitchell logo2G.Mitchell, RF0-2000
Isaac Collins logo2I.Collins, PH0-0000
Sal Frelick logo2S.Frelick, RF0-1000
William Contreras logo3W.Contreras, C0-2000
Gary Sanchez logo4G.Sanchez, DH1-3100
Jake Bauers logo4J.Bauers, PH0-1000
Jake Bauers logo4J.Bauers, DH0-1000
Willy Adames logo5W.Adames, SS0-4000
Blake Perkins logo6B.Perkins, CF0-4000
Rhys Hoskins logo7R.Hoskins, 1B1-3112
Brice Turang logo8B.Turang, 2B1-4000
Joey Ortiz logo9J.Ortiz, 3B2-4000
Diamondbacks Player Stats
Projected
PITCHERPCIPKER
Eduardo Rodriguez logoLE.Rodriguez, P90572
Ryan Thompson logoRR.Thompson, P15120
Joe Mantiply logoLJ.Mantiply, P14110
Justin Martinez logoRJ.Martinez, P16110
A.J. Puk logoLA.Puk, P25110
HITTERSH-ABRHRRBI
Corbin Carroll logo1C.Carroll, RF1-3100
Ketel Marte logo2K.Marte, 2B1-4000
Joc Pederson logo3J.Pederson, DH1-4000
Christian Walker logo4C.Walker, 1B1-1000
Pavin Smith logo5P.Smith, LF0-2001
Jake McCarthy logo6J.McCarthy, CF0-4000
Eugenio Suarez logo7E.Suarez, 3B0-4000
Geraldo Perdomo logo8G.Perdomo, SS1-4000
Jose Herrera logo9J.Herrera, C1-3000

Brewers vs. Diamondbacks Odds Comparison

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Brewers at Diamondbacks Team Totals

MatchupOverUnder
Brewers
1-2
o3.5-145
u3.5+114
Diamondbacks
0-0
o4.5+100
u4.5-130