Brewers vs. Diamondbacks Odds & Betting Predictions - September 14, 2024
Brewers at Diamondbacks
1:40 am • BSWIStarting Pitchers
pitcher | team | era | w-l | |
---|---|---|---|---|
E.Rodriguez | 5.04 | 3-4 | ||
F.Peralta | 3.68 | 11-9 |
Brewers at Diamondbacks Odds
Spread, Total, Moneyline
MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Brewers 1-2 | -1.5 | +1.5-185 | o8.5-116 | +110 |
Diamondbacks 0-0 | u8.5 | -1.5+157 | u8.5-103 | -130 |
Saturday 1:40 a.m.
September 14, 2024Chase FieldPhoenix
Brewers vs. Diamondbacks Expert Picks
Picks Office
60d ago
Last 30d: 82-114-3 (-39.0u)
Over 8.5-115
1u
It's a great setup to go over with both Freddy Peralta and Eduardo Rodriguez starting, as recent performances and the overall offensive strength of both lineups suggest a higher-scoring game. Peralta has been inconsistent, sporting a 3.38 ERA over his last three starts, but his underlying numbers tell a more concerning story. In just 16 innings, he's allowed 15 hits and 6 earned runs. Demonstrating that even with a respectable ERA, he's still more than vulnerable, particularly against lineups like Arizona that prey on even the tiny mistakes. His habit of yielding home runs-maybe his most concerning trait-is especially concerning against an Arizona team that sits 4th in all of MLB with 191 home runs this year. The power hitters like Ketel Marte-who launched 31 homers-can make one mistake pitch an early run. In his last start against Arizona on October 4, he gave up 4 earned runs over 5 innings, proving this strong Diamondback lineup can get to him often and early in the game.
Eduardo Rodriguez's recent form also makes the over all the more tantalizing. Over his last three starts, ERA is an inflated 8.10, as he's allowed 13 earned runs in just 13.1 innings. The Brewers sport a very respectable 4.79 runs per game, a number that's good for 6th in all of MLB, and are more than capable of capitalizing on his recent struggles.
He's also given up a lot of hits-35 in his last 29.1 innings-which means runners are always on base and can easily translate into runs, especially given Milwaukee's aggressive style of base running. Ranked 3rd in stolen bases with 187, even when Rodriguez can manage to minimize big hits, the Brewers can still push across extra runs thanks to their speed on the basepaths. Offensively, the Arizona club has been absolutely on fire. They presently lead the league in runs per game at 5.49, batting average at .263, and OPS at .778, as they are fully capable of putting up runs in bunches. They've scored in double digits on multiple occasions of late, including a 14-run outburst against Texas back on September 11th and 12 runs against Houston on September 8th. This, of course, spells trouble for Milwaukee's pitching, as night in and night out Arizona finds ways to get runners on base and cash them in. Arizona's recent trend of running up high scores - like their 14-4 and 14-3 wins - is also a good indicator that they're in excellent form, and another crucial factor in this over bet.
Top Shelf Action 🥃
60d ago
Last 30d: 211-223-1 (-0.6u)
Over 8.5-110
1u
#ProSystem
. hot overs
Overall: 369-267-32,58% (ROI:12%)
Season:34-23-1,60% (ROI:16%)
PRO Insights
Brewers
MIL Insights
- Featured InsightThe Brewers are batting .270 with RISP since last season -- tied for second best in MLB. Opponents are hitting .277 (329-for-1,189) against Diamondbacks RPs with RISP since last season -- fourth worst in MLB.
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Diamondbacks
ARI Insights
- Featured InsightDiamondbacks hitters have a groundball rate of 45% over the last two weeks -- tied for fifth highest in MLB. Opponents have a groundball rate of just 37% against Brewers over the last two weeks -- lowest in MLB.
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Brewers vs. Diamondbacks Previews & Analysis
Brewers vs. Diamondbacks Notes
Keys to the Game
Matchup Contrasts
Prop Odds Comparison
Line Movement Tracker
Brewers vs. Diamondbacks Public Betting Percentages
Betting Trends
- Diamondbacks are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
- Diamondbacks are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Diamondbacks are 45-36 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Diamondbacks' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 50 of Diamondbacks' 81 last games at home
Matchup History
Against the Spread (ATS) History
overall | home | away | favorite | underdog | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Diamondbacks | 82-80 | 37-44 | 45-36 | 37-48 | 43-31 |
Brewers | 87-75 | 44-37 | 43-38 | 43-48 | 43-26 |
Over/Under History
overall | home o/u | away o/u | favorite o/u | underdog o/u | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Diamondbacks | 92-64-6 | 50-29-2 | 42-35-4 | 50-33-2 | 41-29-4 |
Brewers | 81-70-11 | 40-33-8 | 41-37-3 | 41-43-7 | 40-25-4 |
Straight-Up (ML) History
overall | home | away | favorite | underdog | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Diamondbacks | 89-73 | 44-37 | 45-36 | 52-33 | 35-39 |
Brewers | 93-69 | 47-34 | 46-35 | 54-37 | 38-31 |
Last 5 Matchups
Brewers vs. Diamondbacks Injury Updates
Brewers Injuries
- Christian YelichOF
Yelich is out with back
Out
- Brandon WoodruffP
Woodruff is out with shoulder
Out
- Robert GasserP
Gasser is out with elbow
Out
Diamondbacks Injuries
- Ryne NelsonP
Nelson is out with shoulder
Out
Brewers vs. Diamondbacks Box Score
Brewers Player Stats
ProjectedPITCHER | PC | IP | K | ER | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
RF.Peralta, P | 103 | 5 | 5 | 1 | |
RJ.Payamps, P | 15 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
LJ.Koenig, P | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
RT.Megill, P | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
RD.Williams, P | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
HITTERS | H-AB | R | HR | RBI |
---|---|---|---|---|
1J.Chourio, LF | 1-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2G.Mitchell, RF | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2I.Collins, PH | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2S.Frelick, RF | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
3W.Contreras, C | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
4G.Sanchez, DH | 1-3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
4J.Bauers, PH | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
4J.Bauers, DH | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
5W.Adames, SS | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
6B.Perkins, CF | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
7R.Hoskins, 1B | 1-3 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
8B.Turang, 2B | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
9J.Ortiz, 3B | 2-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Diamondbacks Player Stats
ProjectedPITCHER | PC | IP | K | ER | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
LE.Rodriguez, P | 90 | 5 | 7 | 2 | |
RR.Thompson, P | 15 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
LJ.Mantiply, P | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
RJ.Martinez, P | 16 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
LA.Puk, P | 25 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
HITTERS | H-AB | R | HR | RBI |
---|---|---|---|---|
1C.Carroll, RF | 1-3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
2K.Marte, 2B | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
3J.Pederson, DH | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
4C.Walker, 1B | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
5P.Smith, LF | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
6J.McCarthy, CF | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
7E.Suarez, 3B | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
8G.Perdomo, SS | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
9J.Herrera, C | 1-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Brewers vs. Diamondbacks Odds Comparison
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Brewers at Diamondbacks Team Totals
MatchupOverUnder | ||
---|---|---|
Brewers 1-2 | o3.5-145 | u3.5+114 |
Diamondbacks 0-0 | o4.5+100 | u4.5-130 |