USA and Slovakia will face off on Friday for the right to compete in Sunday's gold medal game. Puck drop is set for 3:10 p.m. EST at Milano Santagiulia Ice Hockey Arena in Milan, Italy. The game will be broadcast live on USA Network and streamed on Peacock.
USA is priced at -130 to cover -2.5, with the over/under set at 5.5 (O -150/U +125). USA is a -750 favorite to win outright, while Slovakia is +525 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my USA vs Slovakia predictions and Olympics picks.
USA vs Slovakia Odds, Pick
| Slovakia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 +110 | 5.5 -150o / +125u | +525 |
| USA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -130 | 5.5 -150o / +125u | -750 |
- USA vs. Slovakia Puck Line: USA -2.5 (-130), Slovakia +2.5 (+110)
- USA vs. Slovakia Over/Under: 5.5 (O -150/U +125)
- USA vs. Slovakia Moneyline: USA -750, Slovakia +525
USA vs. Slovakia Preview
USA
Aside from Slovakia, every team remaining faced a notable gut check in the quarterfinals. Though the USA did well to squeeze the life out of the game after it broke through with the opening tally, Sweden still managed to knot it up on a well-placed shot from Mika Zibanejad with the goalie pulled. However, Quinn Hughes completely took over in three-on-three to secure the victory.
USA's performance versus Sweden could arguably be taken as both a positive and a negative regarding GM Bill Guerin's roster composition. Guerin passed on dominant scoring threats such as Jason Robertson and Cole Caufield, believing that he brought a unit that would be comfortable winning low-event, tight-checking games.
It proved itself in that regard on Wednesday, but there is a counterargument that maybe the margin for error wouldn't have been as tight if Robertson and/or Caufield were on the team. J.T. Miller and Vincent Trocheck have fared relatively well in their respective roles in this tournament, but on a night where Auston Matthews and the Tkachuk brothers were pretty quiet, it might have been better to have as many elite scoring threats as possible in the mix.
In an effort to find a little more offense, offering a greater role to Jack Hughes could be logical for Sullivan. Hughes was arguably the team's most threatening forward versus Sweden and was ultimately promoted to the third line later on in the game.
However, it may not take a ton of offense for the USA to win gold, as throughout its four matchups at the 4 Nations Face-Off and in four games this tournament, it has allowed only 1.5 goals per game. One of the games in which it allowed two goals was also a meaningless game versus Sweden in the 4 Nations, in which the USA rested skaters with the top seed already in hand.
The American blue line is absolutely stacked and could prove to be a significant edge — even in a potential gold medal game versus Canada.
While Hughes may be the best defender in this tournament, Zach Werenski has arguably been the best defender in the NHL this season, and has also been rock solid while playing alongside an excellent partner in Jake Sanderson. And as expected, Charlie McAvoy and Jaccob Slavin have been solid in more stay-at-home roles.
Reigning Hart Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck's play has looked very sound in this tournament, in which he's played to a .958 save percentage.
Slovakia
Slovakia has been a lovable underdog throughout this tournament. With only eight NHL skaters on the roster, it entered the tournament priced at +1100 to win a medal and +1600 to win Group B.
It claimed the top seed out of the group due to tiebreaker procedures, then topped Germany in the quarterfinals.
Juraj Slafkovsky has shown strong progression at the NHL level this season with 45 points in 57 games, and has elevated his game even more so with seven points in this tournament.
Dalibor Dvorsky has also had a strong tournament and has tallied six points. He was a high first-round pick thanks to his overall offensive upside, and he offers the team a little more offensive upside beyond Slafkovsky.
Still, Slovakia's offensive core appears quite modest relative to the Swedish unit that the Americans just shut down, and the units it held in check at the 4 Nations Face Off. Slafkovsky has been an absolute animal in this tournament, but will undoubtedly be facing his toughest line matches thus far, and the USA will hold last change as the home team.
Slovakia has leaned heavily on its three NHL defenders — Martin Fehervary, Simon Nemec, and Erik Cernak — and they have all played quite well. Fehervary, in particular, has been tremendous and is a key reason the defense corps has hung in respectably. He’s an underrated shutdown defender at the NHL level and is enjoying a bit of a coming-out party in the tournament.
Samuel Hlavaj is expected to get the start in goal, having played to a .932 save percentage and 2.45 GAA in the tournament.
USA vs. Slovakia Prediction
Though team USA's offensive play hasn't quite been quite at the level observers would have hoped for, that may not be a huge concern given how they seem to be coming together as a group defensively. They were also extremely stingy in the 4 Nations Face Off, and it certainly doesn't hurt having a reigning Hart Trophy winner in goal looking sharp.
Slovakia has been a lovable underdog in this tournament, but when you really break it down, it hasn't proven all that much. I'm not sold that Slovakia will manage much in this matchup. Bet365 is offering a price of -105 for the USA to win in regulation, while allowing less than 1.5 goals, and I see value in that bet.
Parlay Picks: USA to Win in Regulation, Slovakia Under 1.5 Total Goals (Play to -115)
