Let's get into my USA vs Canada prediction and Olympics pick.
Team USA and Team Canada will face off in a heavyweight gold medal showdown on Sunday morning. Puck drop is set for 8:10 a.m. EST at Milano Santagiulia Ice Hockey Arena in Milan, Italy. The game will be broadcast live on NBC, streamed on Peacock, and on Sportsnet for Canadian observers.
Canada is currently the favorite to cover the 1.5 puck line, with the over/under set at 5.5 (+130o / -155u). Canada is a -130 favorite to win outright, while USA is priced at +110 to pull off the upset.
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USA vs Canada Odds
| USA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -250 | 5.5 +130o / -155u | +110 |
| Canada Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +205 | 5.5 +130o / -155u | -130 |
- USA vs. Canada Puck Line: USA +1.5 (-250), Canada -1.5 (+205)
- USA vs. Canada Over/Under: 5.5 (+130o / -155u)
- USA vs. Canada Moneyline: USA +110, Canada -130
USA vs. Canada Analysis, Pick
Team USA Preview
Head coach Mike Sullivan's side has outscored opponents 24-to-8 in the tournament and allowed only 5.4 shots on goal per game from the inner slot. They hold a 74% share of chances from the inner slot, compared to Canada's mark of 63.7%. Though Team USA may have been aided by a softer schedule than Canada's, its overall structure and process have looked sharper.
Canada holds the superior offensive talents at the very top of the lineup, but USA's defensive core is considerably stronger and could help to negate that advantage. The unit is very mobile and does a great job in transition and helping to generate offence.
Quinn Hughes has, at a minimum, been at the level of Cale Makar in this tournament, and his presence in this game after missing the 4 Nations Face-Off is a key reason the result could be different. Zach Werenski is priced evenly with Makar in the Norris Trophy race and has been excellent as expected, while Jake Sanderson has also been excellent in all facets of the game. Physical shutdown defenders such as Charlie McAvoy and Jaccob Slavin bring strong balance to the unit.
While the USA's offensive core is not headlined by generational talents in the same way that Canada's is, it's certainly still a stacked unit with excellent options at the critical center ice position.
Jack Eichel is one of the best two-way centers in the game and has the skating ability to keep pace with Canada's top line. Auston Matthews may not exactly look like a former Hart Trophy winner anymore, but he's still a Selke-level defender that Sullivan can match up comfortably versus elite offensive units.
The USA's third line of Dylan Larkin, Tage Thompson and Jack Hughes could be a potential x-factor in this matchup. (Jack) Hughes has been fantastic thus far in the tournament and has reminded us all just how excellent he is when at his best. Larkin is a gamer whose game has improved in the later stages of the tournament, while Thompson is one of the best shooters alive and a very intimidating option to have skating alongside a playmaker of Hughes's quality.
Team USA's defensive structure has been excellent in this tournament, specifically during the team's 2-1 win over Sweden and for the first two periods of its blowout win over Slovakia, before score effects took hold and it got a little carefree.
Including the 4 Nations Face-Off, Hellebuyck has played to a .941 SV% throughout his last seven appearances with Team USA. He's not faced an overly difficult workload in this tournament, but his positioning and movement have looked sharp.
Thompson left Friday's matchup versus Slovakia after taking a shot off his foot, but his departure was deemed precautionary as the result was inevitable at that point. He is expected to play in this game, and Sullivan is not expected to make any changes to the lineup.
Team Canada Preview
Canada showed championship mettle in authoring a pair of determined comebacks over Czechia and Finland to reach this point. The character the team has displayed has been impressive, and there certainly won't be much panic on the Canadian bench if it is to trail early in this matchup.
While the way that Canada has found its way through some extremely concerning situations is impressive, it's obviously not an ideal way to win, and at times, the team has felt surprisingly one-dimensional in the tournament.
With 13 points through five games, Connor McDavid has made another black-and-white case that he is the best player on the planet. Macklin Celebrini is the second favorite to win the Hart Trophy this season, but his level of dominance has still been hard to comprehend. Nathan MacKinnon clearly looks to be hampered by either injury or illness, but has still had some moments of individual brilliance, as you would expect from a skater with 40 goals and 93 points in 55 games this season at the NHL level.
While MacKinnon is getting by, it is a concern for Canada that he's not been able to carry his own line in this tournament. The supercharged top line is an absolute force, but it does feel logical to expect the USA to be able to defend the remaining three units effectively.
TSN's Ryan Rishaug reported Saturday that Sidney Crosby is roughly 70% likely to play in this matchup. Theoretically, Canada has the depth down the middle to manage his absence, given that all four centers are still all-star top-liners at the NHL level. Nick Suzuki was not great to start the tournament as he attempted to adjust to the wing, but he performed better when lined up with Mark Stone and Mitch Marner against Finland.
While the USA's controversial omissions mainly came up front with Jason Robertson and Cole Caufield not being included on the roster, Canada's most controversial decisions came on the blue line. GM Doug Armstrong opted to keep it conservative in running back the 4 Nations Face-Off defensive core, despite the fact that by no means did it entirely overpower the US. It seems fair to question if defenders such as Colton Parayko would have been brought back had Jordan Binnington not made some clutch saves in overtime, which is arguably a flawed process.
Binnington has played to a .914 SV% across four starts in the tournament. He's not been outright dominant, but as per his reputation, he's avoided allowing any back-breaking goals when games are truly up for grabs.
USA vs. Canada Prediction
The final of last year's 4 Nations Face-Off was about as close as it gets. Though Canada emerged victorious, the shots were 33 to 27 in favor of USA, and neither team ever led by more than one goal. At the 2014 Olympics, Canada bested the US 1-0, and in 2010, Canada beat the USA 3-2 in overtime thanks to Sidney Crosby's golden goal.
Canada has been clutch in the most important moments of this rivalry historically, but the games have all been extremely competitive. It seems likely that the trend will continue on Sunday. Both of these teams are exceptional, and it's hard to imagine either side outplaying the other by a significant margin.
The last 25 NHL Game 7s have averaged 4.68 goals. The structure and attention to detail defensively should make it quite difficult to generate meaningful chances in this matchup, which will likely keep the scoreline tight barring some fluky goals.
The under is generally an interesting look in this type of matchup, but with under 5.5 goals set at -158 or worse, pivoting to a regulation tie at +300 looks to be a superior option to me, given how likely it seems that it will be a razor-tight game where neither team pulls away on the scoreboard.
This matchup will likely come down to one missed chance/save from one side or the other, with not much clear separation between the two powerhouses. With that in mind, if I were to bet on a side, backing the USA with prices of +110 available would be my clear lean, but the tie should be very much in play at a long price of +300.
Pick: Regulation Tie +300 (Bet365, Play to +280)
