USA (2-0) and Turkiye (0-2) will face off today at 10:00 p.m. ET at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California.
The USA is favored at a -115 price, with the over/under set at 2.5 (-140o / +110u) goals.
Let's get into my United States vs. Turkey prediction.
Turkey vs USA Prediction
Pick: Both Teams to Score — Yes
My Turkiye vs. USA best bet is that both teams will score. Turkiye has been incredibly unlucky, generating a high volume of chances without scoring through their first two matches. Against a USA side that has already advanced and may rotate its squad, Turkiye should finally break its scoring drought, while the hosts will be motivated to score in front of their home supporters.
Turkey vs USA Odds
| United States Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -115 | 2.5 -140o / +110u | -115 |
| Turkey Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 -125 | 2.5 -140o / +110u | +290 |
USMNT vs Turkiye Kalshi Odds
Turkey vs USA World Cup Preview
This match is essentially a dead rubber, which presents a unique betting challenge. The USA has already won the group, and Turkiye has already been eliminated. History shows that teams in the USA's position often struggle to maintain a perfect record; no team won all three group stage matches at the 2022 tournament. This suggests that a dominant USA victory is not a foregone conclusion, especially with widespread squad rotation expected.
The head-to-head history between these nations adds another layer to the analysis. In five all-time meetings, four have finished with a 2-1 scoreline. This recurring result aligns perfectly with a bet on both teams scoring and the total exceeding 2.5 goals. Turkiye, despite its poor results, has dominated possession and shot creation in its previous matches, indicating the talent is there to trouble the American defense.
From the USA's perspective, this match is about maintaining momentum and giving fringe players valuable tournament experience. While they have been clinical, overperforming their xG by 3.50, they have also benefited from two own goals. Their defense was breached by Paraguay on just 0.47 xG, revealing a vulnerability that Turkiye’s high-pressure attack can exploit. With nothing on the line but pride and statistics, an entertaining, high-scoring affair seems more probable than a tense, tactical battle.
Check out the best soccer odds before making your Turkiye vs USA picks.
Turkey vs USA Picks, Parlay
- Both Teams to Score – Yes (-152)
- Over 2.5 Goals & Both Teams to Score (+100)
The primary angle for this match centers on Turkiye's baffling inability to score despite overwhelming offensive pressure. Through two games, they have taken an incredible 62 shots without a single goal to show for it. This is the highest two-game shot total without a goal since records began in 1966. Their expected goals (xG) figure of 3.53 suggests they are due for a positive regression, and a match with no stakes is the perfect environment for their talented attackers to finally convert.
For the United States, the pressure is off. Having already secured the top spot in Group D, manager Mauricio Pochettino is expected to rotate his lineup heavily. This provides an opportunity to rest key players like Christian Pulisic and protect those on yellow cards from suspension. However, as a host nation, the USMNT will not want to disappoint the home crowd at SoFi Stadium. Even a second-string lineup possesses enough quality to create chances and score against a Turkish defense that has little to play for but pride.
Given that the outcome is not critical for tournament progression, the game should be open and free-flowing. Turkiye will be desperate to score at least one goal before heading home, while the USA will look to maintain momentum. This scenario strongly supports both teams scoring and the total going over 2.5 goals.
Turkey vs USA Projected Lineups
USA Expected Lineup (4-2-3-1)
Goalkeeper: Freese
Defenders: Scally, Trusty, Robinson, Arfsen
Midfielders: Roldan, Berhalter; Weah, Reyna, Tillman
Forwards: Pepi
Turkiye Expected Lineup (4-2-3-1)
Goalkeeper: Cakir
Defenders: Celik, Demiral, Kabak, Kadioglu
Midfielders: Calhanoglu, Yuksek; Guler, Kokcu, Yildiz
Forward: Akturkoglu
