France and Paraguay will face off today in the Round of 16. The match is scheduled for 5 p.m. ET at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, Pa., and will broadcast on FOX.
Paraguay vs France odds list France as a -550 favorite on the moneyline and Paraguay a +1500 underdog. The over/under is 2.5 (-162o / +138u).
Let's get into my Paraguay vs France predictions for today's World Cup match
Paraguay vs France Predictions, Picks
- Pick: France to Win Both Halves (+125 at bet365)
My Paraguay vs France best bet is for France to win both halves. Les Bleus have been an offensive powerhouse throughout the tournament, while Paraguay's defense has shown vulnerabilities against top-tier attacks, making this a strong possibility.
Paraguay vs France Odds, Lines
| France Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -170 | 2.5 -162o / 138u | -550 |
| Paraguay Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +130 | 2.5 -162o / 138u | +1500 |
Paraguay vs France Preview
This Round of 16 clash presents a classic attack-versus-defense scenario. France has been unstoppable, scoring 13 goals from an expected goals (xG) figure of 9.20, demonstrating their clinical finishing. They are averaging an impressive 8.5 shots on target per match, a tournament high.
In contrast, Paraguay reached this stage through sheer defensive grit. They lead the competition in defensive interventions, averaging 25 tackles and 40 clearances per game. Their strategy will be to sit in a low block and attempt to frustrate the French attack, much like they did against Germany. However, their own offensive output is severely limited, ranking among the worst in the tournament with just 1.46 xG across four matches.
France's ability to find another gear in the second half is a significant advantage. They have scored eight of their 13 goals after halftime, a period when Paraguay's defense will be most vulnerable after enduring sustained pressure. Against Germany, Paraguay conceded a goal and 0.64 xG in the second period, highlighting a potential weakness France can exploit.
Historically, France has had the upper hand. They have won both of their previous World Cup meetings against Paraguay. Their most recent encounter was a 5-0 friendly victory in 2017, which underscores the significant gap in quality between the two nations. Given France's current form and historical dominance, a comfortable victory is the most likely outcome.
Check out the best soccer odds before making your France vs Paraguay picks.
Paraguay vs France Picks, Betting Analysis
- France To Win Both Halves (+125 at bet365)
- France To Win To Nil & France To Score in the Second Half (+100 at bet365)
France enters this knockout stage as the most efficient attacking team in the competition, and their star players are performing at an elite level. Kylian Mbappé has already scored six goals, while Ousmane Dembélé has four and Michael Olise has delivered five assists. This offensive firepower makes Les Bleus one of the most dangerous sides remaining.
The bet for France to win both halves has been a winning selection in three of their four matches in the 2026 tournament. The underlying metrics support this trend, with no team taking more shots on target than France's 34. Their incredible conversion rate of 17.81% suggests they can capitalize on their chances early and often.
Paraguay's defensive approach was exposed in their opening 4-1 loss to the USA. While they managed to hold off Germany, France presents a completely different challenge. Paraguay has faced 81 shots so far, the most in the tournament, and they will struggle to contain a French team that is relentless in attack.
Furthermore, France's tendency to score after the break is a key factor. Eight of their 13 goals have come in the second half. Against a Paraguayan side that will likely tire from absorbing constant pressure, France's ability to maintain intensity makes a win-to-nil combined with a second-half goal a valuable consideration.
Paraguay vs France Props
- Match – Over 31.5 Throw-Ins (1.83; bet365)
Paraguay has forced an average of 26.75 throws per game at this World Cup, considerably more than the tournament average, which sits around 18 per game.
Due to Gustavo Alfaro’s side forcing lots of throws, their matches also rank highly in terms of throws, with an average of 44 per game at this World Cup. Three of their four matches at this tournament have exceeded the 31-throw mark.
The exception was against Germany. In that game, Julian Nagelsmann’s side dominated possession but lacked cutting edge, so there were just 30 throws in normal time. If we include extra time, there were 35 throws in the match.
Like Germany, France should also control possession against Paraguay, but their star-studded forward line will mean they put the opposition under significantly more pressure, which should lead to an increase in throws.
At this World Cup, France are forcing an average of 19.5 throws per game, so Paraguay should make a good contribution to the overall throw count in this clash.
Paraguay vs France Starting Lineups
Paraguay Expected Lineup (4-4-2)
- Goalkeeper: Gill
- Defenders: Caceres, Gomez, Canale, Alonso
- Midfielders: Almiron, Bobadilla, Cubas, Galarza
- Forwards: Avalos, Enciso
France Expected Lineup (4-2-3-1)
- Goalkeeper: Maignan
- Defenders: Kounde, Upamecano, Saliba, Digne
- Midfielders: Tchouameni, Rabiot; Dembele, Olise, Barcola
- Forwards: Mbappe
Paraguay vs France Betting Trends
- 95% of bets and 93% of the money are on the over
- 95% of bets and 96% of the money are on France's moneyline
Paraguay vs France Weather
The Paraguay-France match could be impacted by weather as Philadelphia is in the midst of a heat wave. Temperatures could reach triple digits with potential storms
