Portugal and Croatia will take center stage at BMO Field tonight at 7:00 p.m. ET on FOX.
Portugal is priced as a -150 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Croatia is +450 to pull off the upset in regulation. The over/under is set at 2.5 (-145o / +115u).
Below, you can find our Croatia vs Portugal World Cup predictions, which include picks for a number of betting markets: any time goal scorer, total shots, saves, and both teams to score.
Croatia vs Portugal Picks & Props
| Game | Time (ET) | Best Bet |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:00 p.m. | |
| 7:00 p.m. | |
| 7:00 p.m. | |
| 7:00 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our World Cup Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Croatia vs Portugal Odds
| Croatia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 +125 | 2.5 -145o / 115u | +450 |
| Portugal Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -160 | 2.5 -145o / 115u | -150 |
Portugal vs Croatia Goalscorer Pick
By William Boor
Trailing only Marco Pašalić within the Croatian ranks, Ante Budimir has maintained an impressive 0.65 expected goals (xG) per 90 minutes, despite logging just 111 minutes of action across two group-stage appearances.
His veteran experience could prove invaluable in a high-stakes environment against Portugal, making him an intriguing target in the anytime goalscorer market.
After sitting out the opening clash against England, Budimir made the most of his first opportunity against Panama, where his decisive goal ultimately secured all three points.
While he went on to play 66 minutes against Ghana without making a direct impact, his underlying efficiency remains staggering: Budimir’s lone tournament goal is the product of the only shot he has taken in the competition so far.
That level of clinical edge will be absolutely vital if Croatia hopes to breach the Portuguese defense tonight.
Five different players have already found the net for Croatia over their first three matches, highlighting a balanced attack that relies on collective team play rather than a single individual.
However, Budimir's exceptional form ahead of the World Cup—where he fired home 17 goals in 37 La Liga appearances for Osasuna during the 2025/26 campaign—underscores his pedigree as a premier finisher.
While oddsmakers view Budimir as Croatia's most logical goalscoring threat tonight, his +275 price tag still represents excellent value for a striker who requires only a half-chance to change a game.
Pick: Ante Budimir Anytime Goal (+275)
Croatia vs Portugal: Will Both Teams Score?
Portugal needs to make some adjustments to make if they plan on launching a deep tournament run after a bumpy group-stage campaign, but their elite attacking pedigree remains undeniable.
A Seleção has found the back of the net in 15 of their 19 competitive matches since Euro 2024, averaging a potent 2.42 goals per game over that stretch. With that kind of firepower, they possess more than enough quality to bounce back and breach the Croatian defense.
Croatia has proven equally reliable when it comes to getting on the scoresheet, having been shut out in just three of their 19 fixtures since the last European Championships. They successfully found the back of the net in all three of their group-stage matches at this World Cup, with both teams scoring in two of those contests.
Once again priced as clear underdogs on the 1x2 market—a position very similar to their group-stage clash with England—Croatia is likely to display some defensive vulnerabilities tonight. In that 4-2 loss to the Three Lions, Croatia's backline surrendered 22 shot attempts and a hefty 2.2 expected goals, a weakness that Portugal's creative front line is well-equipped to exploit.
Tournament and head-to-head history heavily support a high-scoring affair on both sides. Since the start of the 2018 World Cup, Croatia has competed in eight knockout-stage matches, and both teams scored in seven of them, with the lone exception being a 3-0 defeat to Argentina where Croatia still managed 12 shots.
Furthermore, these two nations have squared off five times since the start of 2020, and both teams scored in all five encounters while averaging an entertaining 3.6 goals per game.
Pick: Both Teams to Score (-105)
Croatia vs Portugal Total Shots Prediction
While Croatia’s final two group-stage fixtures were relatively quiet in terms of offensive volume, their high-stakes knockout clash with Portugal promises to be a far more open affair.
Expect this matchup to mirror Croatia's tournament opener against England—a game defined by relentless goalmouth action—making Over 23.5 total shots a highly compelling wager.
According to the 1x2 market, oddsmakers priced Croatia's group-stage battle against the Three Lions very similarly to tonight's Round of 32 tie. That encounter ultimately exploded for 32 total shots as Croatia fell in a 4-2 thriller, and we should probably expect a similar barrage of attempts tonight.
Portugal's recent form also points directly toward a shot-laden spectacle. They are coming off a staggering 37-shot track meet against Colombia, which remarkably ended in a scoreless draw despite the immense offensive volume.
The Over 23.5 line also cashed in Portugal’s second group match, which saw 24 total attempts during their dominant 5-0 routing of Uzbekistan.
These shooting metrics prove that the Portuguese attack has adopted a much more adventurous, forward-thinking approach following their slow start in a drab 1-1 draw against DR Congo on matchday one.
Historical trends reinforce this over as well. This same bet has cashed in all five meetings between these two nations since the start of 2020, with those fixtures producing a stellar average of 28.6 shots per game.
Even their most recent competitive head-to-head encounter—a UEFA Nations League clash in November 2024—comfortably cleared the bar with 27 total shots.
Pick: Over 23.5 Total Shots (-110)
Croatia vs Portugal Saves Prop
Dominik Livakovic had seven saves on 12 shots against England in Croatia's debut match in this World Cup, and you can expect him to also be heavily involved in this Round of 32 matchup.
Three saves would be better, but for value alone, go with four. And if you parlay it with both teams scoring, you get +305 odds at DraftKings.
Pick: Dominik Livakovic 4+ Saves (+110)
