The Montreal Canadiens are set to host the Tampa Bay Lightning for Game 3 tonight in the first round of the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs.
There was no shortage of action during the first two games. The series is tied 1-1, with both teams snagging an OT victory in Tampa Bay. But which squad will take Game 3? And how many goals will each team score?
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Lightning vs. Canadiens Polymarket Odds
Most Traded Lightning vs. Canadiens Game 3 Outcomes On Polymarket
At the moment, there are three different markets that traders are locking in on: "Moneyline", "Spread", and "Totals" (over/under). In all, this game has generated over $255,000 in trading volume since opening on April 18th.
The greater majority of traders have been targeting the moneyline ($251,000), but there's still some value in buying contracts from thin markets such as totals and the spread. With the puck set to drop for Game 3 tonight at 7 p.m. ET, overall volume has picked up quite a bit today.
Lightning vs. Canadiens Prediction Market Analysis
Game 3 NHL odds have remained fairly stable on the moneyline since Monday morning (April 20th). At the moment, 53% of Polymarket traders are picking Tampa Bay to win while 48% are in on Montreal.
This makes some sense when you consider the Lightning are the higher seed, but it's important to remember that these teams each finished the regular season with 106 points — meaning the Canadiens aren't a true underdog.
In fact, Montreal hasn't looked overwhelmed at all. Both games were very even, an accurate snapshot of just how statistically similar these franchises have been all season. While the home team naturally has an advantage, that may not matter as much as usual tonight.
During the regular season, the Lightning had a .646 winning percentage both at home and on the road, while the Canadiens were actually better on the road (.683) than at home (.610).
When comparing these rosters, Nikita Kucherov (F) gives Tampa Bay the best player in the series, but Montreal wins the overall depth game up front. Still, the Lightning's roster has some key pieces from its dynasty days in the not-so-distant past, and has a clear advantage both defensively and in goal.
If you're a trader chasing moneyline value, you may just want to pick the team you actually believe will win. After all, the moneyline contract prices reflect the percentage each team is currently being traded at, with Lightning contracts going for 53 cents, whereas Canadiens contracts are 48 cents.
Fortunately, there's value to be found in trading the spread. As favorites, Tampa Bay (-1.5) is trading at 33 cents compared to Montreal (+1.5) trading at 70 cents. The great price of a Lightning spread contract likely stems from the first two games being won by a single goal, but not every game will go to overtime. When you factor in empty-net goals, even close games can often end with a spread of two or more.
As for the total, it would be shrewd to chase the best value of what's essentially a coin flip. The over/under is currently set at 6.5, with "Over" contracts going for 43 cents while "Under" contracts are 58 cents. Game 1 would have hit the over (7 goals), whereas Game 2 would have hit the under (5 goals), so buying value shares of the under is not a bad play — especially considering how defensively sound Tampa Bay often is.
When Will This Market Conclude?
Look to the list below for the official Polymarket rules surrounding the resolution of Game 3 outcomes:
- The resolution source is https://www.nhl.com/scores
- If the Lightning win, the market will resolve to "Lightning"
- If the Canadiens win, the market will resolve to "Canadiens"
- If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
- If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
- The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts.
- In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
