Wild vs Capitals Odds
| Wild Odds | -104 |
| Capitals Odds | -115 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 +112/ -138 |
The Metropolitan Division's Washington Capitals host the Central Division's Minnesota Wild on Friday night.
Low-scoring affairs are typically in store when these clubs square off as there have been six or fewer goals scored in three of their past four meetings over the past two seasons.
Will we see another low-scoring game on Friday night?
Here's a look at the Wild vs. Capitals odds, as well as my betting pick and prediction.
Minnesota Wild
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There is not much to like about how the Wild have looked through their first seven games, despite their 3-3-1 record. At 5-on-5, they rank 28th in the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60).
As has been the problem for this club over the past few years, they are too top heavy offensively and rely on just a few guys. That is especially problematic when a player like Matt Boldy, who is expected to miss Friday's game, is out of the lineup.
Yes, the blue line is just as bad as the offense with the absences of Jared Spurgeon and Alex Goligoski, but both of those guys are just as impactful on the offensive end of the ice as they are the defensive end. Furthermore, we could see a bounce-back performance from goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury, despite the poor defensive play in front of him.
Fleury surrendered five goals on 25 shots for a .800 SV% in his most recent start against the Los Angeles Kings, a brutal performance from the future Hall of Famer. I doubt we are going to see that quality of play from him in back-to-back appearances.
Washington Capitals
Fleury is likely to rebound against the Capitals, who could be in a let-down spot following Wednesday's 6-4 upset over the New Jersey Devils. Washington's offense exploded for six goals in that matchup, but the Capitals still rank just 22nd in the league in xGF/60 at 5-on-5.
Meanwhile, goaltender Darcy Kuemper is due for some positive regression. He is 1-2-1 with a .868 SV% and a 3.67 GAA through four starts, which is well below what we expect from a Cup-winning netminder with a career-.916 SV%.
Over his past three appearances against Minnesota, Kuemper is 1-0-1 with a .931 SV% and a 2.01 GAA. There were five or fewer goals scored in two of those three outings.
Wild vs. Capitals
Betting Pick & Prediction
Like Kuemper, Fleury boasts a strong track record against tonight's opponent. Over his past four starts against the Capitals, Fleury is 4-0 with a .912 SV% and a 2.93 GAA.
I certainly don't trust Minnesota's blue line, but going against a poor Washington offense with Fleury looking to bounce back is a spot where the damage could be limited. Furthermore, the Wild's offense can't be trusted without Boldy.
Catching plus money on the under at DraftKings is worth a shot. If the market moves that line, I recommend taking it down to -110.
