Stars vs. Predators Odds
| Stars Odds | -130 |
| Predators Odds | +110 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 +100 / -120 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Dallas Stars vs. Nashville Predators on Thursday, February 15 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
Two Central Division foes lock horns tonight as the Predators host the Stars at Bridgestone Arena in Tennessee.
Dallas is coming off a thrilling win over the Carolina Hurricanes on Tuesday night, securing its position atop the division standings. The Predators aren't so fortunate, though, after stumbling into this intra-divisional affair off one of their worst performances of the season.
Nashville is desperately clinging to its playoff aspirations but has lost ground over its recent sample. They can reverse course on that underwhelming trend with a solid performance on home ice.
Dallas opened as short favorites, but there's reason to believe the Stars implode against the Preds.
Here's my Stars vs. Predators pick and prediction.
Dallas Stars
Before Tuesday's wins over the Canes, Dallas had put together one of the most dominant stretches of hockey of the season. The Stars had outplayed their opponents in seven straight games, compiling a 65.2% expected goals-for rating.
Predictably, those efforts had yielded the expected results with the Stars going 5-1-1 over that stretch. However, Dallas was substantially outplayed on home ice against the Hurricanes, revealing a more concerning trend that's starting to emerge.
Dallas was outplayed against Carolina, posting a disastrous 33.8% expected goals-for rating. In that contest, the Stars gave up 28 scoring and 15 high-danger chances en route to a 4-2 victory. More concerningly, that was the second time in three games that the Stars had given up at least 10 high-danger opportunities, getting out-chanced in both contests.
Surely, those inefficiencies will be exposed as the Stars play five of their next six on the road.
The other factor we're weighing is the anticipated regression from Jake Oettinger. The projected starter for Thursday's Central Division, Oettinger has looked unimpressive over his recent sample. He's posted a save percentage below 90.0% in four of his last six, a stretch in which he is a perfect 6-0-0.
Oettinger's performance is analogous to the team as a whole, and we're expecting the Stars and their netminder to enter a correction phase over the coming weeks.
Nashville Predators
The Predators have nowhere else to go but up after their appalling effort against the New Jersey Devils last time out.
In that contest, Nashville gave up a mind-numbing 23 quality chances, equaling the number of opportunities from their three previous contests. As implied, the Preds have been better than that lately, and they should turn things around in a hurry on Thursday night.
Tuesday's contest notwithstanding, the Preds had strung together some above-average defensive performances. Nashville had limited five of its last six opponents to eight or fewer quality chances for an average of 6.5 per game. Similarly, opponents haven't had any success in increasing scoring chances. Over that same six-game sample, only one team exceeded 21 scoring opportunities, with a rolling average of 18.8
Nashville will have to lean into that defensive structure against the Stars, but thankfully they have a good track record on home ice. In 28 home games, the Preds have limited opponents to an average of 21.2 scoring and 8.4 high-danger chances.
More importantly, they've out-chanced teams in both categories, resulting in 51.1% scoring and high-danger chance ratings.
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Stars vs. Predators
Betting Pick & Prediction
As good as the Stars have looked lately, the Preds might have the antidote. Nashville's success is premised on suffocating defense. Moreover, the Preds have leveled up their play over their recent sample.
Combined with Dallas' collapsing defense and anticipated regression between the pipes, the Stars could be destined for a few more losses sooner rather than later.
We're using Thursday's spot to back the underdog home side, expecting them to get the better of their division rivals on home ice. Backing Nashville at any plus-money number just makes sense.
Pick: Predators (+115 at FanDuel)
