Senators vs. Maple Leafs Odds
| Senators Odds | +150 |
| Maple Leafs Odds | -178 |
| Over / Under | 7 +105 / -125 |
The Ottawa Senators head to Toronto on Wednesday to take on the Maple Leafs, and boy has it been a rough start for them.
The Senators are coming off a loss against the Lightning, but that’s not the only adversity they’re facing. They’ve lost five out of their last six games overall, and Senators fans are getting fed up.
Toronto is also going through some troubling times. Yes, the Leafs won in overtime against Tampa, but before that, they lost four in a row. They’re always a threat to make noise, though, because they have three of the more dynamic players in the league.
Here’s a look at the odds, as well as my Senators vs. Maple Leafs prediction and betting pick.
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Ottawa Senators
Regardless of the pain the Sens are enduring, there’s certainly a lot to like. That includes loads of young talent who have proved themselves as legitimate NHLers.
Captain Brady Tkachuk leads the team in goals with eight in 10 games, but he is tied for points with Claude Giroux and Tim Stutzle. Jakob Chychrun has also proved to be a vital part to this defensive core with nine points.
Ottawa has struggled on both ends of the puck on 5-on-5. Everyone pondered if this was the year to make the playoffs, but this has been a bad start.
The team is currently 30th in expected goals with a 43.13 xGF%, and defensively it’s 29th with a 3.25 xGA/60.
With the amount of offensive weapons the Senators have, they surely thrive with the man advantage, scoring at a 22% clip. However, the penalty kill is hampered, succeeding only 75% of the time.
Ottawa has consistently battled through goaltending woes for years, and this year is no different. It was thought Joonas Korpisalo was the answer, but so far, he’s been underwhelming. The Finnish netminder is posting mediocre numbers, playing to a .902 SV% and a -1.2 goals saved above expected (GSAx).
Toronto Maple Leafs
By now, we all know about the “Big Four” in Toronto. It’s led primarily by Auston Matthews, who is probably the league’s premier goal scorer, already with 13 goals in 12 games.
Mitch Marner and William Nylander are both behind him in points, though all they have to do is give Matthews the puck.
Lastly, captain John Tavares is posting a point per game, but it looks like his game is starting to slow down.
Regardless of how dynamic the Leafs can be, it’s not showing in the even-strength metrics. At 5-on-5, the Leafs play only to a disappointing 45.78 xGF% (they’re usually near the top 10).
Defensively, they’re not much better, ranking 25th with a 3.01 xGA/60.
Similar to its opponents, Toronto’s special teams are pretty one-sided to no one’s surprise. The power play scores at a 29% clip whereas the penalty kill succeeds only 75% of the time.
There’s a good chance that Joseph Woll becomes the permanent starting goaltender in Toronto. Woll showed up last year in the playoffs, and he's picked up where he left off this year. So far, he’s off to an amazing start, playing to a .930 SV% and a +6.3 GSAx.
Senators vs. Maple Leafs
Betting Pick & Prediction
This is going to be a game that’s all over the place. The Senators have yet to figure themselves out, and they can score on the power play.
Toronto has elite scorers, and the Maple Leafs are similarly dominant on the power play.
I’m expecting a massive amount of goals tonight, but since I’m not liking the number of -142 at over 6.5 goals, I’ll go a different route.
I think the Leafs are going to have their way with the Senators. Ottawa is dreadful at even-strength defense, and the Leafs will feast if they ever get a man advantage.
I’m also bullish on Toronto’s goaltending. Woll has turned out to be a legitimate starter, and I can see the Senators struggling to consistently get pucks past him.
I’ll be taking the puck line in this bout since Toronto is the superior team.
Pick: Toronto -1.5 (+140 at Caesars)
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