Sabres vs. Avalanche Odds
| Sabres Odds | +155 |
| Avalanche Odds | -190 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -125 / +105 |
After a convincing win on Monday, the Buffalo Sabres head west to face the Colorado Avalanche.
Once again clamoring for playoff aspirations, the Sabres stand seventh in the Atlantic Division and have gone 4-5-1 in their last 10 games.
While the Avalanche still lead the Central Division, December has been a tumultuous month for them. They’ve lost five out of their last seven games, which is concerning. Luckily, they came back from a two-goal deficit to beat the Flames on Monday.
Here’s a look at the NHL odds and my Sabres vs. Avalanche prediction.
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Buffalo Sabres
With all the talent Buffalo has, I still wonder why they’ve struggled so much.
Having a defenseman in Rasmus Dahlin leading in scoring is one factor. Luckily, Tage Thompson is back from injury, so he can help take the scoring load off Jeff Skinner and JJ Peterka’s backs.
The Sabres also missing Alex Tuch, who’s been a huge part of this team for the past two seasons, to IR.
The Sabres have had a hard time creating offense 5-on-5, ranking 24th in expected goals with a 47.94 xGF%. Defensively, they’ve been OK standing 19th with a 2.72 xGA/60.
Last year, Buffalo was among the best teams on the power play, but this year it’s abysmal and scoring at a only 14% clip. The penalty kill has been solid, though, succeeding 81.7% of the time.
My hunch is that we’ll see Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen tonight in his first start back from injury. The towering Finnish netminder has played solid with a .907 SV% and a -0.1 goals saved above expected (GSAx). Prior to getting injured, Luukkonen posted a .920 or better SV% in six out of his last seven games.
Let’s see if he picks it back up tonight.
Colorado Avalanche
Mikko Rantanen made his presence felt on Monday with three points and then clapped back at journalists calling him out (including one who just happens to be the father of his teammate).
To go with that, we all know the dominance that Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar bring. Some would say that the Avs could have the best trio in the NHL, all averaging well over a point per game.
Colorado’s 5-on-5 play has been relatively strong, but nowhere near where we’re used to seeing. The Avs are 10th with a 52.18 xGF%, and defensively they are 11th with a 2.53 xGA/60.
Surprisingly, the Avs haven’t performed as well on the power play as they usually do, scoring only 18.7% of the time. The penalty kill has been among the best, though, ranking seventh with an 85.2% success rate.
Alexandar Georgiev put the Avs in a tough position on Monday against the Flames. So much so that coach Jared Bednar put in Ivan Prosvetov to lead the charge for a comeback win.
Georgiev has had a mediocre year, and I expect to see him tonight in an attempt to rebound. He’s playing to an .897 SV% and a +2.3 GSAx.
Sabres vs. Avalanche
Betting Pick & Prediction
Both of these teams are quite vulnerable coming into this matchup, but I still like the Avalanche, especially in regulation.
Colorado is 10-4 when playing in front of its home crowd while Buffalo is a middle-of-the-pack 6-7-1 on the road.
I also think we see a little rustiness from Luukkonen. He’s been a really good goalie for Buffalo, but I expect the 10-day break to cause problems against a very dynamic Colorado team.
The Avs are superior at 5-on-5 as well. They may be going through some troubles at the moment, but before that, they were elite.
Buffalo has yet to make a consistent impact, and only once this season have the Sabres won a game after a win. That one time they did was in October. The trends and the numbers don’t lie, and I can see this being a rough start to their West Coast road trip.
I'm picking the Avalanche to win in regulation/in the first 60 minutes.
Pick: Avalanche in regulation (-130 at bet365)
