Red Wings vs. Ducks Odds
| Red Wings Odds | -144 |
| Ducks Odds | +120 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -130 / +106 |
Here's everything you need to know about Red Wings vs. Ducks on Sunday, Jan. 7 — our expert NHL prediction and pick.
The under has been a profitable bet when these teams have met over the past decade, as there have been six or fewer total goals scored in 16 of the past 24 meetings. Will we see another low-scoring affair Sunday?
Let's dig into the NHL odds and make a Red Wings vs. Ducks prediction and pick.
Detroit Red Wings
Perhaps the most surprising part of Detroit's season has been the excellent play of goaltender Alex Lyon, who is confirmed to start between the pipes Sunday. Through 11 starts, Lyon is 7-4 with a commanding .919 SV% and 2.56 GAA.
The Red Wings' blue line has gotten a fair amount of criticism this season, which is somewhat understandable. However, I don't think the level of attention is fair.
At 5-on-5, Detroit ranks in the top half of the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60). I would argue that goaltenders Ville Husso and James Reimer are more to blame for the amount of goals given up this year.
Speaking of metrics, the Red Wings' offensive analytics suggest major regression is looming. While this team ranks fifth in the league in goals per game, it ranks 29th in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) at 5-on-5.
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Anaheim Ducks
Detroit's expected offensive regression could come in this matchup against goaltender John Gibson, who is slated to get the start in the crease. His surface-level stats do not immediately jump off the page, with Gibson posting a .903 SV% and 2.97 GAA through 25 appearances between the pipes.
However, he is playing much better than those stats suggest. Those numbers are also weighed down by an unusual seven-goal meltdown against the Edmonton Oilers, who boast the best offense in the league.
At 5-on-5, Gibson has stopped 0.233 goals above expected per 60 minutes, which is the 10th-best mark out of the 27 goaltenders to play at least 20 games this season. With that said, as has typically been the case during his tenure in Anaheim, scoring help will be hard to come by.
The Ducks rank 29th in goals scored per game and 25th in shots on goal per game. The underlying metrics are not much better, as they rank 21st in xGF/60 at 5-on-5.
Red Wings vs. Ducks
Betting Pick & Prediction
We have two strong goaltenders set to square off while catching plus-money on the Under 6.5 at FanDuel.
It's a bit of a long number because of Detroit's offensive success this season, but as I mentioned above, its analytics suggest regression is looming. Gibson is certainly the class of goaltender to help ignite that expected regression.
Meanwhile, Anaheim's offense should not be trusted, especially with Troy Terry, Ryan Strome and Leo Carlsson all out with injuries. Those three players have accounted for over 22% of the Ducks' points this year — and that's with Carlsson only playing 23 games.
With Gibson in net and this injury-riddled offense, it is not shocking that there have been six or fewer total goals scored in 10 of Anaheim's past 14 games.i
Pick: Under 6.5 (+106 at FanDuel | Play to +100)
