Kraken vs. Blues Odds
| Kraken Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -255 | 6.5 -105o / -115u | -105 |
| Blues Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +205 | 6.5 -105o / -115u | -114 |
The first Saturday of the NHL season is always loaded with intrigue. It's the busiest night in the Chell, and teams are always ready to perform under the bright lights and a packed house.
The St. Louis Blues could use the boost after getting beat by the Dallas Stars in the season opener.
The Seattle Kraken are in a worse position, dropping their first two games of the season and getting outscored by a 7-1 margin.
The betting odds for Kraken vs Blues Saturday night imply this game is a coin flip, but we're making a decisive play on the home side in this Western Conference showdown.
Seattle Kraken
Earlier in the week, we discussed the Kraken's unfortunate schedule and how it could negatively impact the start of their season.
Seattle plays seven of its first 10 games on the road, wrapping up a brief three-game road trip against the Blues.
Early returns aren't promising for the NHL's newest squad, and it could be outmatched again on Saturday night.
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The typically stout Kraken have encountered some defensive lapses in the first two games. They have been out-shot and out-chanced in high-danger chances in each game, a departure from what we saw from them last year.
Still, the most concerning trend is the cratered offensive production we've seen from Seattle. The Kraken have scored on just one of their first 56 shots for a disappointing 1.8% shooting percentage.
These early-season performances could be part of a more significant trend throughout the season.
The Kraken substantially overachieved relative to their underlying metrics, tallying 209 goals at 5-on-5, above their expected benchmark of 172.4.
That gap only widens across all strengths, with the Kraken jumping from 246.5 expected goals-for to 289 actual.
Consequently, regression could be an inevitable part of their upcoming campaign.
St. Louis Blues
Similarly, the Blues got off to an underwhelming start to the season.
St. Louis was outmatched by the Stars on Thursday night, posting a 43.9% expected goals-for rating and getting out-chanced 11-8 in quality chances.
However, unlike the Kraken, St. Louis benefits from skating on home ice in this game, which it can use to line-match and neutralize the Kraken's attack.
On average, Blues opponents were limited to 9.5 high-danger chances per game last year, but that standard improved over the latter half of the campaign. Throughout their final 21 home games, opponents' quality chances dipped to 8.9, resulting in a boost in their 5-on-5 save percentage.
Over that same stretch, Blues netminders combined to stop 92.0% of shots, an improvement over their 90.7% prior to that.
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Therein lies another advantage benefitting the Blues. Like most goalies, Jordan Binnington has superior metrics at home. The Stanley Cup-winning goaltender has a .613 winning percentage at home compared to a .545 on the road.
As expected, that correlates with a slightly improved save percentage and goals-against average in his friendly confines.
We saw everything that Binnington had to offer against the Stars, and he's poised to maintain that level at home against the Kraken.
Kraken vs. Blues
Betting Pick & Prediction
Seattle's bid to pick up where it left off last season is riddled with barriers. The Kraken have an unfriendly schedule and are clearly being impacted by regression.
Those issues won't be relieved on Saturday against a stingy Blues squad.
Binnington has been the backbone of the Blues' success, and he looked like his vintage self on Thursday night. He should be able to maintain that form at home against a snake-bitten Kraken squad.
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We're tempted to make a few plays in this one. First, there's value in backing the Blues at a pick'em price at home.
Second, the total is riding high at 6.5, leaving an edge in taking the under.
Lastly, with goals in short supply and neither team looking promising on offense, we wouldn't be surprised if this one gets sorted out in overtime or a shootout.
The Picks: Blues -110 (BetMGM), Under 6.5 -110 (Caesars), 60-Minute Tie +370 (FanDuel)
