NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Golden Knights vs. Stars Game 6 (Monday, May 29)

Golden Knights vs. Stars Odds

Overcoming a 3-0 series deficit is an extremely rare feat, but it can happen.

The Vegas Golden Knights have twice failed to close out their Western Conference Finals series against the Dallas Stars, which has caused the pressure to mount for Vegas going into Game 6 on Monday.

Can the Golden Knights finally close out the Stars and advance to the Stanley Cup Final? Find out in my Golden Knights vs. Stars Game 6 preview, which includes a betting prediction.

Vegas Golden Knights

Despite a 3-0 series lead, the Golden Knights were more vulnerable than they seemed. In terms of expected goals, Dallas has outplayed Vegas in every contest outside of Game 1, per Moneypuck.

Vegas' struggles were initially masked by Stars goaltender Jake Oettinger's uncharacteristically poor performance while Adin Hill, who had no NHL postseason experience before 2023, played like an All-Star. For example, Dallas outshot Vegas 34-16 in Game 3, but Oettinger was chased early and Vegas went on to win 4-0.

By contrast, the Golden Knights have been held to four goals over the last two games. Oettinger's rebound is part of the reason why the Golden Knights offense has dried up, but Vegas' forward core could also be doing more to help its cause.

Mark Stone, in particular, is someone to keep an eye on. He has been held off the scoresheet for three straight games, marking his longest drought of the postseason. The Golden Knights captain did fire three shots on Saturday though, which was his most in a an outing in this series.

Jack Eichel has chipped in an assist in each of Vegas' last four games, so he's been doing his part, but he's also on a six-game goal slump despite recording 10 shots over the last two contests. He seems primed for a breakthrough in that regard.

Dallas Stars

As touched on above, Oettinger stabilizing has been key to Dallas' resurgence. He's a top-tier goaltender who played a key role in pushing the Stars into the playoffs, but over the first three games against Vegas, he posted an ugly 4.63 GAA and .848 save percentage. Head coach Peter DeBoer kept going back to him though, and it's paid off.

Oettinger's not the sole reason Dallas forced a Game 6. With Jamie Benn (suspension) and Evgenii Dadonov (lower body) out for the last two games, Jason Robertson has stepped up, providing three goals in that span.

Of course, Robertson had 46 goals during the regular season, so him taking charge isn't unexpected. What's more surprising is Ty Dellandrea scoring two goals on Saturday after being limited to a marker over his first 13 playoff contests, as well as nine tallies in 82 regular-season appearances.

Dellandrea shouldn't be counted on to perform like that again — but he also shouldn't have to.

Benn is back from suspension and is likely to serve in a top-six role and on the first power-play unit. He's been effective in the postseason, providing three goals and 11 points in 16 outings. While the actions he took leading to the suspension displayed poor judgment and was extremely ill-timed, he'll at least be rested.

Roope Hintz is another Stars forward worth keeping an eye on. He had 10 goals and 22 points through the first 14 playoff games, but he has been held to just two assists over the last four contests. He's still tallied at least three shots in each of his last three outings, including five shots on Saturday, so it wouldn't be surprising to see him bounce back. If he does, that could be enough to force Game 7.

Golden Knights vs. Stars Pick

The Western Conference Finals going to seven games wouldn't shock oddsmakers, given that Dallas is being treated like mild favorites on the moneyline. I think that's fair given Oettinger's bounce back, Benn's return and the Stars' solid overall play.

I am hesitant to bet on Dallas evening the series, primarily because I don't think the low potential payout is enough to outweigh the risk. Instead, I'm going to recommend under 5.5 goals.

You get a better projected return and it ties in nicely with Oettinger's recent play along with Hill's overall performance. The Stars and Golden Knights have also combined for an average of just five goals per game over the last four. On top of that, we're likely to see both teams tighten up as the series progresses.

Pick: Under 5.5 (-104)

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