Ducks vs. Capitals Odds
| Ducks Odds | +150 |
| Capitals Odds | -182 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 +104o / -128u |
Here's everything you need to know about Ducks vs. Capitals on Tuesday, Jan. 16 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
These teams squared off at the end of November, with Washington claiming a 5-4 victory in a high-scoring game. Will we see another high-scoring affair on Tuesday evening, or can the goaltending step up this time around?
Let's dig into the NHL odds and make a Ducks vs. Capitals prediction and pick.
Anaheim Ducks
Anaheim has been involved in high-scoring outings recently, with seven or more total goals scored in three of its past four games. I believe this trend is likely to continue in this matchup for multiple reasons.
First, the offense is starting to pick up, as the Ducks are averaging 3.5 goals scored over those four games. Moreover, the defense continues to bleed goals at a high rate, which is likely to continue with rookie defenseman Pavel Mintyukov on injured reserve after separating his shoulder.
That is a big blow to a team that already ranks in the bottom third of the league in goals allowed per game, shots on goal allowed per game, penalty-kill percentage and penalty minutes. Positive regression is unlikely, as Anaheim also ranks 24th in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) at 5-on-5.
Backing up this poor blue line is goaltender Lukáš Dostál, who is projected to start between the pipes on Tuesday as John Gibson got the nod Monday. It has been a difficult campaign for Dostál, who is 7-10-1 with a .901 SV% and 3.55 GAA through 19 appearances in the crease.
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Washington Capitals
Goaltender Darcy Kuemper is slated to start across the ice, and he has been even worse than Dostál. Through 22 starts this season, Kuemper is 10-10-2 with a .891 SV% and 3.27 GAA.
Entering this matchup in particularly poor form, he is 2-4 with a .870 SV% and 4.26 GAA over his past six starts. These struggles are likely to continue against Anaheim, a team that Kuemper possesses a .892 SV% against over his past seven outings.
However, like Dostál, Kuemper has been dealt a bad hand playing behind this blue line. At 5-on-5, Washington ranks 27th in xGA/60.
There have been seven or more total goals scored in four of the Capitals' past seven games, but that does not really paint a full picture since Alex Ovechkin missed two of those games because of a lower body injury. However, Ovechkin is likely to return to the lineup Tuesday, and the Over is 4-1 across the past five games that he has played in.
Ducks vs. Capitals
Betting Pick & Prediction
There's a lot of reasons to like the Over 6.5 in this spot at +104 via FanDuel. We are likely avoiding a Gibson/Lindgren goaltending matchup, and a Dostál/Kuemper game is much more friendly to the Over.
Meanwhile, both defenses are terrible and Anaheim is missing the rookie defenseman who has been its best blue liner this year. We saw nine total goals scored in the first matchup between these two teams this season, and I don't think it's far-fetched we see a similar outing Tuesday.
I would not take this line past +100.
Pick: Over 6.5 (Play to +100)
