Stanley Cup Final Game 4: Golden Knights vs Panthers Odds, Pick, Prediction

Stanley Cup Final Game 4: Golden Knights vs. Panthers Odds

Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Final gets underway on Saturday evening as the Florida Panthers host the Vegas Golden Knights.

Florida pulled off an unlikely comeback in Game 3, tying the game with just 2:13 left in regulation before Carter Verhaeghe buried the winner from just inside the blue line in overtime.

Will the Panthers even up the series, or will Vegas head back home with a 3-1 lead?

Here's a look at the odds, as well as my Golden Knights vs. Panthers betting pick and prediction.

Vegas Still is the Better Team

As someone who's still riding a 25/1 preseason ticket from our 2022-23 season preview, I absolutely love how the Golden Knights have looked in this series.

And before I get accused of bias, I wouldn't mind at all if the Panthers pull off the upset and hoist the Cup — they're an entertaining club to watch and Matthew Tkachuk is one of my favorite players in the league.

With that said, the Knights are the superior team. They dominated each of the first two games on home ice, winning by a combined score of 12-4.

Then they traveled to Florida in Game 3 and controlled that game for the first 57 minutes. That was before Tkachuk got net-front and buried a loose puck with Sergei Bobrovsky pulled and time winding down in the third.

The Panthers then had to kill a big penalty before Verhaeghe eventually secured the game-winner, but we need to remember that this is a game that Vegas dominated for the first 57 minutes.

In fact, according to MoneyPuck.com, the Knights win that game 70.6% of the time after 1,000 simulations.

Do the Panthers Believe Enough to Win Game 4?

My biggest concern in backing Vegas in Game 4 is that the Panthers have something you cannot quantify: they're now a team that believes.

Tkachuk played hero once again in Game 3 in what was a must-win game, considering that no team has come back to win a Cup down 3-0 since the Maple Leafs in the 1950s.

Florida is once again on home ice, and now believes it's in this series. While the Panthers' home rink is certainly not the same advantage that the Knights have when playing at T-Mobile Arena, it's still an advantage.

However, on paper, we're getting the better team at plus-money, which is too good to pass up.

Florida trailed Vegas in xGoals% in all three games of this series, which is not all that surprising given that the Knights are much deeper, boast a strong blue line and are more experienced in deeper playoff pushes.

Golden Knights vs. Panthers Pick

The one area where many thought the Panthers would out-duel the Knights in this series was in net.

Prior to the Cup Final, Bobrovsky was putting up historic numbers during the playoff push.

However, he’s finally come back down to earth in this series, allowing 10 goals on 73 shots for a fade-worthy .863 SV% through the first three games.

Meanwhile, Adin Hill continues to defy the odds for Vegas. A career back-up, Hill is 9-4 in this postseason with a .934 SV% and 2.12 GAA.

How sustainable those numbers are remains to be seen, but until he shows he cannot keep it going, I have no issue continuing to back Vegas.

Pick: Golden Knights ML (+100 | Bet up to -115)

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