The Anaheim Ducks and Vegas Golden Knights meet in the second round of the NHL Playoffs tonight. Puck drop is set for 9:30 p.m. EDT at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nev. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN.
The Golden Knights are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 6.5 (-100o / -120u). The Golden Knights are a -165 favorite to win outright, while the Ducks are +138 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Ducks vs. Golden Knights predictions and NHL picks.
Ducks vs. Golden Knights Odds, Pick
| Ducks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -177 | 6.5 -100o / -120u | +138 |
| Golden Knights Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +147 | 6.5 -100o / -120u | -165 |
- Ducks vs. Golden Knights Spread: Golden Knights -1.5 (+147 ), Ducks +1.5 (-177)
- Ducks vs. Golden Knights Over/Under: 6.5 (-100o / -120u)
- Ducks vs. Golden Knights Moneyline: Ducks +138, Golden Knights -165
Ducks vs Golden Knights Kalshi Odds
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Ducks vs. Golden Knights Preview
Anaheim Ducks
This matchup presents a different kind of test for Anaheim than what it faced against Edmonton.
The Ducks made relatively quick work of the Oilers, and while the series went six games, Anaheim felt in control for much of it, posting a 56.17% expected goal share and the second-highest xGF/60 mark in the round at 3.64.
The intrigue here is that Vegas takes a fundamentally different approach than Edmonton. The Oilers lean on offense to carry them, which is a game the Ducks can match. The Golden Knights, by contrast, play through their defense.
Vegas allowed the second-fewest xGA/60 of any team during the regular season at 2.69, and held that standard in the first round against Utah, surrendering just 2.37.
The regular season matchups offer an interesting reference point. Anaheim won all three meetings against Vegas by the same 4-3 score, averaging 28.3 shots on goal per game and generating chances consistently. Vegas still held the edge in quality, producing 28 high-danger chances to Anaheim's 24.
Another interesting angle is the Ducks also went just 1-for-5 on the power play in those games and ranked 23rd overall during the regular season at 18.6%. That said, Anaheim enters the series running hot with the man advantage, converting at a 50% clip against Edmonton. How much of that was driven by the Oilers' inability to defend remains to be seen.
For all the offensive attention this Ducks team draws, Jackson LaCombe on the blue line may ultimately be the most important player in this series.
He was outstanding offensively against Edmonton, leading the team with nine points, but his work against Connor McDavid, even with a foot fracture limiting McDavid, was one of the more impressive individual performances of the first round.
Vegas runs a disciplined two-way game from the back end, so LaCombe will need help. Jacob Trouba and John Carlson will both need to be factors if Anaheim is going to have any success limiting the damage and helping out Lukas Dostal.
In net, Dostal had a rough go against Edmonton, posting a league-worst -4.1 GSAx and a .874 SV% that ranked third-worst among playoff starters.
He did come up with some timely stops when the moment called for it, and his track record against Vegas is worth noting. In five career starts against the Knights, he has posted a .917 SV% and 2.75 GAA. This season specifically, Dostal started two of the three matchups and stopped 57 of 63 shots for a .905 SV%.
Vegas Golden Knights
Vegas may already have a blueprint for this series. Utah and Anaheim play a similar style, leaning on speed up front and generating offense in transition.
The Knights spent the first half of their first-round series figuring out how to slow Logan Cooley and Dylan Guenther, and that experience translates well to a matchup against Leo Carlsson, Cutter Gauthier, and Beckett Sennecke.
The Golden Knights also arrive here with serious momentum. After replacing Bruce Cassidy with John Tortorella, Vegas went 7-0-1 over its final eight regular-season games and carried a league-leading 58.09% expected goal share over its last 10, driven by a stingy 2.44 xGA/60. That has held up in the playoffs, where the Knights posted a 54.86% expected goal share and a 2.37 xGA/60 against Utah.
It would be a mistake, though, to paint Vegas as purely a defensive team. The Knights put up 23 goals across their six first-round games and have the personnel to match Anaheim's pace if the series calls for it.
Vegas has no shortage of weapons up front. Jack Eichel leads the team with nine playoff points. Mitch Marner delivered a dominant closeout performance with two goals and an assist in Game 6.
Pavel Dorofeyev, after being elevated to the first line alongside Eichel and Barbashev, posted four goals in the first round, a move by Tortorella that unlocked a different level from that group.
Vegas has options, and the ability to shift between defensive structure and offensive firepower gives them a versatility that Anaheim has not yet been tested against.
Defensively, the Knights ranked second in shots on goal against during the regular season, which also sets up an interesting battle given that Anaheim finished third in shots on goal but just 12th in the high-danger category.
Vegas has a way of making teams work for those looks, and if it can funnel the Ducks to the perimeter, the high-danger numbers tell you Anaheim may not convert at the rate needed.
Special teams are an interesting factor in this series as well. The Ducks rode a 50% power play conversion rate against Edmonton, but Vegas killed 15 of Utah's 16 opportunities in the first round and ranked in the top 10 in penalty kill percentage during the regular season.
If the Knights hold that standard, it puts the legitimacy of Anaheim's power play surge under real scrutiny. Crediting the Ducks' success to an Edmonton penalty kill that ranked 20th this season is not a stretch, and if that turns out to be the explanation, Vegas neutralizing the power play becomes a significant edge.
In net, Tortorella has been vocal about his confidence in Carter Hart, and Hart responded in the closeout game with a 23-save, one-goal against performance. The series numbers, a -1.6 GSAx and .892 SV%, were propped up slightly by three strong outings in Games 1, 2, and 6 despite allowing four goals three separate times.
Like Dostal, he made saves that mattered and, looking at the full picture, Vegas appears to hold a slight edge between the pipes.
Ducks vs. Golden Knights Prediction
Vegas' first-round experience works in their favor here. The Knights fell behind Utah 2-1 before winning three straight to close it out, and solving for that speed and transition game translates well to what Anaheim brings offensively. The Ducks deserve respect, but they operate from a similar blueprint to what Vegas just spent six games dissecting.
The flip side is that Anaheim faces a completely different challenge than what Edmonton presented. The Ducks handled Edmonton well, but this is a new test, and adjusting on the fly against a Tortorella-coached team is easier said than done.
In addition, Tortorella's handling of Hart has been quite positive. Vegas ranked 28th in team SV% this season, so having a coach commit to his goalie publicly matters. The Dorofeyev move to the first line was another good call that gave the offense another dimension at the right time.
Vegas has the edge in enough areas, and the Knights' penalty kill should slow down what has been a red-hot Anaheim power play. I’ll take Vegas at home in Game 1 in regulation.
Pick: Golden Knights 60-Min Line (-105, DraftKings)
