Super Bowl LX is finally here!
The Seahawks defense has been the best in the NFL all season, and the Patriots' Drake Maye came just a few votes away from winning MVP in his sophomore season.
It's a fascinating Super Bowl matchup with all sorts of angles and all the usual exotics and long shots. I've got 21 Super Bowl picks below — yes, you read that right, and yes, I'm really betting all of them.
If you're looking for a side, props, escalators, long shots, same-game parlays (SGPs), or even the Super Bowl Gatorade color edge, I've got you covered. For some bets, you can find more in-depth articles linked with a longer case, but all my picks are here in one place.
Always use our tools to shop around for the best lines available since some of these bets were made earlier this week, but if you like the angle and your line is close, fire away. Pick your favorite bets to tail, settle in, and let's have some fun and enjoy Super Bowl LX.
Super Bowl Predictions
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Patriots Team Total Prediction
Seahawks Defense vs. Patriots Offense: Will the Patriots Move the Ball?
This is more fascinating side of the matchup and the one I feel more certain about.
There are two units I've believed in the most all season: the Seahawks defense and the Rams offense. That's the matchup that highlighted this entire season, three times, and I believe it's the one that may have already crowned a champion.
Seattle led the league in Defensive DVOA, top two against both the run and the pass. Head coach Mike Macdonald's defense is filthy nasty, attacking from every angle and making life miserable on every opponent — every non-Rams opponent, that is.
Since Week 13, the Seahawks allowed 64 points in two games against the Rams but 44 points in all other games combined! That's 44 points on 62 drives, a measly 0.71 points per drive, with Seattle giving up just two touchdowns combined and only 7.0 PPG in those affairs (per @Clevta). And that includes two games against a San Francisco offense that had been has hot as any in football!
New England's offense has been anything but hot in the NFL playoffs ��� and I'm not sure the Patriots pass the smell test against good defenses.
The Patriots were largely untested in the regular season. They ranked dead last in schedule by DVOA both offensively and defensively, and now that the defensive schedule has ramped up in the playoffs, the offense has totally fallen apart.
New England's 18 PPG in the playoffs are the fewest for a team that reached the Super Bowl since the 1979 Rams. The Patriots' -0.73 EPA per drive in the postseason is approximately equal to the Jets' regular-season tally and the worst for any Super Bowl team this century, just barely ahead of the 2000 Ravens and 2015 Broncos — two teams renowned for historically great defense and precious little offense.
New England's 54 points are the fewest by any playoff team in a three-game win streak since the 1970 merger. The Patriots rank 30th percentile or worse in both Success Rate and EPA per drive in all three games, and Drake Maye ranks last among all quarterbacks with at least three starts in one playoff over the past decade, per The Ringer's Sheil Kapadia.
Maye ranks 33rd percentile in EPA per play in the playoffs and about the same on the season against top-10 defenses. He had a PFF grade of 60 or better (out of 100) nine times this season but did it against the Dolphins, Jets, Bills, Saints, Panthers, Titans, and Giants, and only four times since Week 7. He graded 50th percentile or worse at PFF grade and EPA eight times, including six times since Week 7.
And Seattle doesn't just just any defense — it is the best. The Seahawks held opposing quarterbacks to a 50th percentile PFF grade and EPA composite in 14-of-19 games this season.
Maye has a 32% Success Rate in the playoffs, the second lowest for a Super Bowl quarterback since 1978. He ranks right between Rex Grossman and Trent Dilfer.
There are plenty of reasons Maye hasn't had to pass much (and the weather played some part in it), but the ugly truth is that he has not been good against good defenses, and now New England needs him to play the game of his life.
There are serious matchup concerns for New England's offense, too.
For starters, don't expect them to find much success running the ball. The Patriots have been lackluster rushing the football all season by any metric available, and Seattle leads the league in rushing defense by EPA, with its secondary playing a big part.
New England finds its best offense through the air, and in particular, with explosive plays.
The Patriots led the league in explosives this season at 14%, including 20% of their passing plays, but they struggled to produce big plays against the team that ranked No. 1 in fewest explosives allowed (Denver) — and guess who's No. 2?
Seattle allowed an explosive play on just 7.8% of its defensive plays, top two against both the run and the pass.
New England's explosive plays have slowed down as the season has worn on. Maye completed 77% of his 20+ air yard throws through Week 8 but that has plummeted to 35% on such passes since.
Seattle also ranks No. 1 defending opposing WR1s, in this case, Stefon Diggs.
So if you take away Diggs along with New England's deep passing and its run game, what's left?! Not much.
One Seattle weakness, by design really, is defending short passes. The Seahawks rate around league average there, but that forces Maye to complete pass after pass and go on long, 10- or 12-play drives down the field against an aggressive defense without making a mistake.
A difficult ask, indeed, and Seattle's defense is also elite in the red zone while New England's offense ranks below average, so even a long successful drive could still come up short.
New England's offensive line has also become a serious liability.
The Patriots ranked 24th in pressure rate allowed in the regular season and have gotten worse in the playoffs, with the rookies on the left side of the line struggling mightily, especially LT Will Campbell.
Seattle ranks 4th in pressure rate, with a deep and talented defensive front that comes at you in waves. Maye's EPA per play under pressure so far these playoffs would rank dead last if it were regular-season metrics, and his 62.5% pressure-to-sack rate in the postseason in abysmal. He's been sacked five times in each of New England's three playoff games, and those negative plays are drive killers.
Maye is a special player and will make some plays, and the Patriots are bound to find a few big plays eventually, but it looks like tough sledding for their offense overall.
I like the Patriots to go under their posted team total of 20.5 points (-115, BetRivers).
New England has only gone under that number four times all season, but two of those unders have come in the playoffs against great defenses.
As for Seattle's defense? Remove the three Rams games and Seattle opponents have gone under 20.5 points in 13 of the 16 other games (81%) with an average of 15.0 PPG — and two of those three overs came in garbage time late, one in the final minute.
Both of these teams also rank bottom five in pace. This is more likely to turn into a defensive slugfest than a shootout.
I'm not positive Seattle's offense will score much, but it's really hard to imagine New England hanging a big, crooked number.
Let's open our account with Patriots under 20.5 points — a number New England could even go under and still win the game with.
Bets in this section:
- Patriots Team Total Under 20.5 (1 unit, -115, BetRivers)
Seahawks Offense vs. Patriots Defense: Do We Trust Sam Darnold?
This is the much more unpredictable side of the ball, and the uncertainty goes both ways.
Seattle's offense was awesome early in the season but faded hard from Week 11 through the end of the regular season. That was the first matchup against the Rams, when L.A. was the first opponent to make a point of playing Seattle for its early passing tendencies out of heavy instead of matching heavy bodies like-for-like, giving Seattle big bodies to pass against.
Before Week 11, the Seahawks led the league in Passing DVOA. From Week 11 onward, they plummeted all the way to 25th, bottom quarter of the league.
The rushing attack improved from 21st to 6th in that same stretch, but defenses were fine with that! The entire point was to limit Seattle's downfield passing and bait the run.
Of course, Seattle's offense was suddenly much better again in two playoff games. Did the Seahawks counter the counter during their bye week and find some answers? That's hard to tell in a small sample, but it also came against two reeling defenses.
If you're going to build a script for a Seahawks loss, there's little question you start with Sam Darnold.
Maybe Darnold just isn't good enough in the biggest game of his life. Maybe the ghosts return.
For all its dominance, Seattle actually had the second-most giveaways in the regular season with 28, including nine games — over half of them — with multiple turnovers.
The Seahawks have no turnovers in the last three games — two playoff matchups and one for the 1-seed. Did Seattle solve its problem, or is that just luck?
Either way, it's hard to see Seattle losing if the Seahawks don't turn it over. But that volatility makes Seattle unpredictable.
New England's defense is also tough to figure out.
Suddenly, the Patriots look almost as good defensively in the playoffs as the Seahawks. After cratering against the run down the stretch of the regular season, they've rebounded to an elite 2.4 yards per carry against the run in the playoffs. The pass defense also started bottom five by DVOA the first half of the season but has gotten progressively better since.
So what do we make of this sudden small-sample leap to elite defense?
Milton Williams is healthy and a big boost, but is he that much of a difference-maker? Christian Gonzalez was hurt early, but has he really taken that much of a leap? Is defensive play caller Zak Kuhr just on that much of a heater?
Again, there are reasons to doubt.
Weighted DVOA reflects the ginormous leap New England's defense has taken the last couple months, but it may be lying to us.
In its last six games, New England has faced four backup quarterbacks, three of them third stringers. This elite playoff stretch has also included two bad weather games as well as two against horrendous offensive lines.
The Patriots faced only two quarterbacks the entire regular season that rank in the consensus top half of the league. This unit just hasn't been tested much, and though Seattle's offense is hardly elite, it may well be New England's biggest defensive test all season. Only Buffalo ranks higher by Offensive DVOA, and the Patriots gave up 55 points in those two games.
There's been a lot of hype for Williams and Christian Barmore on the interior, along with Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis at corner, but the second name in each of those duos has a serious weakness.
Barmore is great as a pass rusher but ranks 133rd of 134 interior defenders against the run at PFF. Davis gambles too often and gets beat in man coverage; he's also susceptible to pass-interference calls.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba will relish every opportunity he gets against Davis — we'll get back to that below — and New England's defense also ranks dead last in red zone DVOA on the season.
New England's defense has real weak points, but it does have some real matchup advantages.
The run defense looks great, and Seattle has the lowest neutral pass rate in the NFL. New England plays a heap of light box defense and won't get baited into heavy coverage but can limit all those Seahawks runs anyway and slow down the game. That's a good script for the underdog.
The Seahawks are heavily reliant on their play-action passing, with Darnold ranked 1st in play-action passing by DVOA, but the Patriots have ranked near the top of the league defending play action all season.
New England's defensive scheme is a pretty good matchup for Klint Kubiak's offense on paper, with one exception. The Patriots play the 9th most man coverage, and Darnold has been far better against man than zone this season; Smith-Njigba also torches man coverage.
Seattle's offensive line could be its weak link, too, particularly on the interior. RG Anthony Bradford and perhaps C Jalen Sundell could be an issue on the interior against the Patriots' star defensive linemen.
The Seahawks have enough firepower to find some answers offensively, but it's imperative they stay on the front foot.
Seattle leads the league in first-down passing by DVOA but drops all the way to 25th on third down. When Darnold gets put into passing downs, his play falls off dramatically and has for his entire career. When the defense has to play both run and pass, he prospers.
New England's defense has been exactly the opposite this season.
The Patriots are stout on the money downs but leaky on early downs, below average in many metrics. If the Patriots can get Seattle to third-and-long, they can win. But will Seattle even get there?
The Seahawks offense has been far better early in each half, top six in DVOA in the first and third quarters but below average in the second and fourth. That's an offense that's at its best on Kubiak's script, with a QB following a well-prepared gameplan.
That's held true in these last three Seattle games.
Seattle had a touchdown and a field goal on its first two drives against the Rams in the NFC Championship Game. It had a field goal and a touchdown on its first two drives against the 49ers in the Divisional Round (not counting the opening kickoff return TD), and it had a touchdown and a 66-play drive that ended on a turnover on downs against the Niners in the regular season finale.
Seattle's offense has been at its best early in these games — and that could be trouble for a Patriots defense that's been at its worst in the first quarter. New England ranks 30th in first quarter DVOA defensively, and that's played out in the playoffs, too.
The Chargers got to the 2- and 5-yard line on their first three drives. They only got three points out of that, but those were their only points of the game.
The Texans got to the 1-yard line on their second drive, settling for a field goal, then scored their only touchdown four plays into the second quarter. The Broncos scored a touchdown on their second drive, then turned it over on downs in the red zone the next possession.
In all three playoff games, New England's defense has been at its most vulnerable early. The Patriots have only allowed 26 points all postseason — 20 of them came on those early drives.
It's probably not worth much considering all the players and coaches are different, but it could also be worth noting that New England has scored just three points total in nine Super Bowl first quarters this century.
If you want to bet Seattle 1Q -0.5 at +105 (DraftKings), that makes sense. I like Seattle early. But first-quarter bets can be finicky since there's no urgency at the end of the quarter and since we don't know who gets the ball first.
My favorite way to invest in the Seahawks is Seattle to score first and win the game at +125 (Circa).
If Seattle's offense is bad early or falls behind, that's not a script I'm going to feel great about anyway with Darnold. I want this team playing on its front foot, like it has so much of the season.
Seattle is a perfect 11-0 when scoring first this season, the only unbeaten team in the league, and the Seahawks have scored first in five straight games. If they make it six, this thing could be a wrap early.
Bets in this section:
- Seahawks to score first and win the game (1.5 units, +125, Circa)
Seahawks vs Patriots Spread Prediction
Seattle Has the Little Edges, Too
If we like Seattle's offense just enough against New England's defense and love the matchup on the other side of the ball, that should be enough to make the side clear.
But if it's not, Seattle has a few other advantages too.
Like usual, special teams should be a huge advantage for the Seahawks.
The Patriots are actually the only team that ranked better by DVOA on punt returns this season — Marcus Jones and Rashid Shaheed rank first and second all-time in yards per punt return at the moment — but New England was below average or bad at every other facet of special teams, notably including its own punting and coverage.
Seattle is good to great at every facet of special teams. The Seahawks are the best team in the league at kickoffs, both kicking and covering.
All those little special teams edges may not seem like much, but when Seattle consistently starts its possessions 10 yards ahead of where New England starts, that's like a free first down on every possession. It adds up in a hurry!
The Seahawks also have a significant rest and health advantage.
Unlike Seattle, the Patriots didn't get a bye week. Instead, New England has played three close, tough games, two of them in difficult outdoor conditions.
The Seahawks had that first week of the playoffs off to heal and will also have a massive preparation advantage. Seattle has faced only one new opponent since Week 15. This coaching staff has had plenty of time to self scout and get ready for every facet of the Patriots.
That rest advantage also leads to health advantage. Drake Maye's shoulder concern has been a story for two weeks, and New England also has key injuries to guys like Robert Spillane and Harold Landry in defense.
And as much as the scheduling thing has been overblown — whoever you beat, you're here now — it does matter.
New England played 11 of its 17 regular season games against an opponent that'll have a new head coach next season, plus two more against the Jets and three others against the woebegone NFC South.
Seattle, on the other hand, already has an NFL-record six wins against teams that won 12+ games this season, and they can add to that record with a victory here.
Seattle is battle-tested time and again against big time opponents. That will matter in the game's biggest moments.
New England actually has the better record on the season, thanks to having to play in the opening round, but teams with the better winning percentage are an awful 1-17 against the spread (ATS) in the Super Bowl since 2003 — and the one cover was the Patriots team that first trailed 28-3.
The Patriots also failed to cover in the Conference Championship, showing some vulnerability, and that doesn't happen often. Since 1970, teams that fail to cover in the Conference Championship are 2-11-1 ATS in the Super Bowl.
I grabbed Seattle -3.5 at open but it's been stubbornly stuck at -4.5 since. That's a hefty line as well as Super Bowl underdogs have played in recent years, and New England hasn't lost by more than a touchdown all season.
But Super Bowl winners cover. They're 50-7-2 ATS, an awesome 88% cover rate, that that includes 31-1 ATS with a spread of six or less.
New England's three playoff wins have mostly felt like an opponent beating itself.
Seattle is the better team and the Seahawks control their destiny. Either Seattle will win or Darnold and the Seahawks will beat themselves.
I'm not investing too heavily in a side when there are better ways to play it, but if you're playing, it's Seattle -4.5 or nothing.
Bets in this section:
- Seahawks -4.5 (0.5 units)
Seahawks vs Patriots Defensive Bets
Always Bet on Defense in the Super Bowl
In most Super Bowls, we focus on the quarterbacks and the offenses — but for whatever reason, defenses seem to find the end zone at outlandish, outsize rates in the Super Bowl.
We've seen 23 defensive touchdowns in 59 Super Bowls, with at least one by the winning team in 17 of them (29%). In fact, we just saw that exact scenario last year, and actually, in both of the Chiefs-Eagles Super Bowls. We've now seen 14 defensive TDs in the last 24 Super Bowls.
Whether it's extra preparation from the defense or desperation in the final game of the season, defenses consistently make big plays in the end zone, and defenders can sometimes steal MVP with one big play. We've had 10 defensive MVPs, almost one in every six Super Bowls.
I always bet on defense in every Super Bowl, regardless of matchup, and I like this angle even more than usual this season with Seattle's defensive aggressiveness but propensity to turn the ball over on offense. I dug deep into the numbers here, and these are my bets:
Bets in this section:
- Either team to score a defensive or special teams touchdown (0.5 units, +265, Circa)
- Seahawks D/ST anytime TD & Seahawks ML (0.5 units, +833, theScore)
- Patriots D/ST anytime TD & Patriots ML (0.5 units, +2703, theScore)
- Any defensive player to win Super Bowl MVP (0.25 units, +1500, theScore)
- Marcus Jones to win Super Bowl MVP (0.1 unit, +15000, BetRivers)
- DeMarcus Lawrence to win Super Bowl MVP (0.1 unit, +15000, BetMGM)
- Ernest Jones to win Super Bowl MVP (0.1 unit, +20000, theScore)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Player Props
JSN Set for a Big Game — and Maybe Super Bowl MVP
All season long, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been the star around which the entire Seattle offense has revolved, and there's little reason to expect anything different in the Super Bowl.
New England ranked dead last against opposing WR1s by DVOA this season despite being mostly untested, and JSN is responsible for an outrageous amount of Seattle's passing attack — 44% of Sam Darnold's passing yards and 40% of his TDs.
The Patriots also play a lot of man and JSN led the league at 4.16 yards per route run against man coverage in the regular season.
Smith-Njigba has caught at least eight passes in 10-of-13 Seattle games this year that didn't end in a 21+ point win. I like JSN to get his usual volume of passes, and if he does, he'll be an excellent candidate for Super Bowl MVP.
I wrote at length about how I'm investing in JSN and why I'm tripling down on him for MVP after already holding +2800 and +1500 tickets:
Bets in this section:
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba over 6.5 receptions (0.75 units, -139, DraftKings)
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba 8+ receptions (0.75 units, +130, Fanatics)
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba 100+ receiving yards & Super Bowl MVP (0.5 units, +850, FanDuel)
Super Bowl Props, Escalators, Gatorade Color
Alright, those are all my biggest Super Bowl LX angles. Now let's run through a handful of other props and angles I'm eyeing.
If many of these angles look familiar, it's because they're mostly running back angles we've already played — and often hit — in these playoffs.
Rashid Shaheed Over 2.5 Rushing Yards
Let's start by running back Rashid Shaheed rushing props. This is the most fun bet you can make this Super Bowl.
Shaheed has at least one rushing attempt in eight of his 11 games since being traded to Seattle. The Seahawks are using him like Percy Harvin, and he's lining up in the backfield even more now that Zach Charbonnet is out.
Shaheed will be the fastest player on the field on Sunday, and if he gets even a sliver of space, he could bust a big one. He has at least two yards rushing in 6-of-11 Seattle games, and he's already had Seahawks runs of 10, 10, 30, and 31 yards.
And guess which team has allowed the most rushing yards to wide receivers this season — why it's the Patriots!
The Patriots allowed 149 rushing yards to opposing wideouts, along with the sixth-most attempts, and that includes at least three rushing yards to a receiver in 10-of-17 games. It also includes seven double-digit yardage WR runs, including a 31-yarder.
Every year, we see coaches break out their favorite gadget plays in the Super Bowl. This is the moment Seattle went out and got Shaheed for.
I'm betting over 2.5 rushing yards (-110, BetMGM), and I'd love a 10/20/30 longest rush escalator, if you can find odds.
I haven't found it, but I do see Shaheed badly mispriced at +3000 to record the longest rush of the Super Bowl at DraftKings. If we're not expecting either team to run the ball all that well traditionally, even a 15- or 20-yard run could win that market.
This is the most fun bet you can make for Super Bowl Sunday, in part because we'll probably only get one shot. All night long, you'll be watching those neon green Shaheed cleats, waiting for the one sweeping end around and one shot at glory.
By the way, any guess who led Seattle in rushing the last time the Seahawks won the Super Bowl?
Harvin, of course. He led both teams with 45 yards, including an early 30-yard run that cashed longest rush.
Your move, Shaheed.
Hunter Henry Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (+105)
I'm not investing in too many Patriots in this one, but I do expect Hunter Henry to have a nice night.
Since Week 8, no non-Rams wideout has cleared 50 yards against Seattle's secondary, so opposing RB and TE targets are piling up.
On the season, Seattle opponents have a healthy 24% target rate to tight ends, and the Seahawks are top six in most receptions and yards allowed to tight ends. Seven opposing TEs have already caught at least six passes against Seattle.
New England probably won't hit too many deep passes and likely won't run much, but it should find some success on shorter passes — and that's where Henry can rack up some looks. He has only six catches in three playoff games, but those games were heavily game script and weather impacted.
Henry had at least four catches in just over half his regular season games, but over 3.5 receptions is juiced to -140 and that's a bit much. But when Henry gets the volume, the yards are there too — and sometimes the yardage is there even without the receptions.
Henry had only two games this season with 4+ receptions but under 45 yards, but he had four other games with under four catches where he still hit 39+ yards. Henry has 39+ yards in 11-of-20 games (55%), and Seattle has allowed 39+ to a TE in 10 regular season games along with both playoff games.
Let's build ourselves a little Hunter Henry escalator.
Start with the traditional over 39.5 yards at +105 (Caesars), then place a good portion of your bet on 50+ yards at +155 (bet365). Henry has 49+ yards eight times this season, and Seattle has allowed that number 10 times, including both playoff games.
Sprinkle a small touch on 80+ yards at +630 (FanDuel), a number Henry has topped twice and Seattle has allowed four times.
New England probably won't be the only team checking it down. If both offensive lines are a bit suspect, we may see both teams hit a higher volume of short passes underneath.
Kenneth Walker Over 2.5 Receptions (-120)
That leads us to Kenneth Walker, but as a receiver, not a runner.
Walker's receiving numbers are way up in his last 10 games — 2.7 catches for 27.8 yards on 3.1 targets. That may not seem like much, but compare that to 1.2 receptions for 9.2 yards on 1.3 targets before that and you see the receptions and targets double and yardage triple!
We played and hit Walker as a receiver against the 49ers, and now he's getting even more time on the field with Charbonnet out.
We've also been playing RB receptions against New England, because the Patriots are top five in most RB receptions allowed. This season, 12 opposing RBs have at least three catches against New England.
Walker has 3+ catches in seven of his last 10 games, so bet Walker over 2.5 receptions (-120, Fanatics).
In those seven games with 3+ receptions, Walker averages 39 YPG, and he has 29+ yards in all but one of them. The Patriots have allowed 29+ yards to a RB seven times this season themselves. Add a small yardage escalator for Walker at 30+ receiving yards for +160 (bet365).
And what's a good Super Bowl without a Gatorade bath at the end?!
Most books these days allow you to bet on the color of Gatorade dumped on the winning coach, and if you're betting the Super Bowl, you gotta have a little fun with the novelty bets.
Orange appears to be the favorite at many books, but we haven't seen Orange cash in any of the last five Super Bowls. It did hit in Seattle's last Super Bowl victory back in 2014, and that appears to be why it's the favorite.
Blue was the color in the last two New England Super Bowl victories, though, and Blue has hit in three of the last seven Super Bowls. Both teams also wear blue, so this feels like a bet that could hit for either side.
So for one final pick to end the season, let's end it in style: Blue Gatorade at +290 (FanDuel).
Official pick: Seahawks 25, Patriots 13.
Now let's cash that Seattle +7000 Super Bowl ticket from last February and pair it on our mantles with Stafford MVP +5000 before a long, victorious February nap.
Bets in this section:
- Rashid Shaheed over 2.5 rushing yards (1 unit, -110, BetMGM)
- Rashid Shaheed longest rush of the game (0.5 units, +3000, DraftKings)
- Hunter Henry over 39.5 receiving yards (0.75 units, +105, Caesars)
- Hunter Henry 50+ receiving yards (0.6 units, +155, bet365)
- Hunter Henry 80+ receiving yards (0.15 units, +630, FanDuel)
- Kenneth Walker over 2.5 receptions (0.75 units, -120, Fanatics)
- Kenneth Walker 30+ receiving yards (0.75 units, +160, bet365)
- Color of Gatorade poured on winning coach: Blue (0.25 units, +290, FanDuel)
