Defense wins championships.
So goes the old adage, and defense has been the story for both the Seahawks and the Patriots on the road to Super Bowl LX.
Mike Macdonald's defense has been one of the stories of the NFL season, his Seattle unit one of the best in football from wire to wire. New England had a more tumultuous route but found its own in the playoffs under defensive playcaller Zak Kuhr, totally shutting down the Chargers, Texans, and Broncos en route to the big game.
But there's something about defenses that seems to spike a little extra big play potential on the grandest stage of them all.
And that's why I always bet on defenses making big plays in the Super Bowl by betting on a defensive touchdown and even a defensive Super Bowl MVP.
Seahawks vs Patriots Super Bowl Picks, Props: How to Bet on Defenses
Defenses Often Score in the Super Bowl
For whatever reason, defenses consistently find a way to score touchdowns in the Super Bowl.
Just look at the pair of Chiefs-Eagles Super Bowls we just got.
Last year with the Eagles up 10-0 in the second quarter and the Chiefs pushing to come back, Philly corner Cooper DeJean picked off Patrick Mahomes, 38 yards to the house, game over.
In the previous matchup, Jalen Hurts lost the ball on a designed run and Chiefs linebacker Nick Bolton scooped it up and scored. Later, Bolton appeared to tally a second TD but saw the play overturned in a bang-bang review, or he'd have been a surefire MVP.
Believe it or not, that has been a pattern in Super Bowls.
We've now seen an incredible 23 touchdowns scored by the defensive side in Super Bowl history, with at least one defensive TD in 20 of the 59 Super Bowls.
That's more than once every three Super Bowls! Think about that. Do you expect five defensive TDs on a typical Sunday slate with 15 games? Not even close.
But for whatever reason, the Super Bowl is an anomaly.
Perhaps it's the league's best defenses with extra time to prepare for offensive tendencies, or maybe it's just desperate teams with nothing left to lose in the final game of the year putting the ball a little more up for grabs than usual. Whatever the reason, it just keeps happening!
Those two Chiefs-Eagles TDs are the only ones in the last seven Super Bowls, but before that, we saw an incredible 12 defensive touchdowns in the previous 17 Super Bowls! That's over 0.7 defensive TDs per game in that stretch and means 14 defensive TDs in the last 24, better than 50/50 implied!
Defenses score touchdowns in the Super Bowl.
Betting a Defensive Touchdown in Seahawks vs Patriots
That's why I always bet on a defensive touchdown in the Super Bowl.
Year after year, regardless of the teams playing or any matchup on the board, this is a blind bet. The odds are just never priced correctly.
This year, the bet feels even better.
Seattle's defense has been one of the best in the NFL all season, aggressive from the jump and constantly forcing plays. But Seattle's offense has been sloppy, ranking second in the league in giveaways, and that could give New England's defense a chance for a big play too.
The Patriots scored two defensive touchdowns in the regular season, then another in the playoffs — two of them by CB Marcus Jones, who moonlights as the current best punt returner in NFL history. Seattle had three defensive TDs, too.
And while this isn't necessarily a special teams angle, it should be noted that Seattle had one of the best special teams units all season and added five special teams TDs as well, while the Patriots scored three special teams TDs themselves.
So how do we bet it?
Be careful, and pay attention to the details — and always shop around for long-shot lines like these.
At FanDuel, we can bet on a Seattle Defense anytime touchdown at +550, which at first glance looks much better than what appears to be the same bet at DraftKings priced at +400. Ditto with New England at +850 and +500, respectively. But at FanDuel, we're betting only a defensive score. At DraftKings we're betting D/ST, which means we get special teams scores too.
This isn't a special teams specific angle, but Seattle has scored five special teams TDs already this season and New England has three. We've already seen 13 special teams TDs in the Super Bowl, including eight the last three decades. We want those extra outs.
If you want to just keep things simple and clean, you can bet on either team to score a defensive or special teams touchdown at +265 at Circa. That's an implied 27.4%, compared to the Super Bowl history of 36 D/ST touchdowns in 59 Super bowls, implying a 61% chance of a score.
That's pretty clear and definite value — though you can bet No D/ST touchdown at -320 instead, if you think this is all a bunch of baloney.
But we can bet even smarter.
The defense has scored 23 touchdowns in Super Bowl history, and all but three of them came from the winning team.
Makes sense, right? In a game between two of the league's best teams, with a game often priced closed to a coin flip, one weird bounce of an oblong ball and an unexpected free seven points have a huge change of swinging the game in either direction.
It's no coincidence that the Chiefs won the Super Bowl with their defensive TD but lost to the Eagles when Philly pulled off the feat.
The winning Super Bowl team has scored a defensive touchdown in a whopping 17-of-59 Super Bowls. That's over 29% of the time, more than once every four Super Bowls, and that's not even counting special teams!
If you cut out the unlikely scenario of a defensive score in a losing effort, we can really zero in on value by placing two SGP bets:
- Seahawks D/ST anytime TD & Seahawks ML (+833, theScore)
- Patriots D/ST anytime TD & Patriots ML (+2703, theScore)
And yes, we're playing both angles! We hit this exact bet last season with Cooper DeJean and Philly at +850!
These defensive scores are unpredictable and can swing the game. Even if you like the favored Seahawks, don't you like them a whole lot less if you know Sam Darnold throws a pick-six? A surprise D/ST score is a great way for an underdog to steal the game.
Playing both angles together gives us combined implied odds of +600, or about 14.3%, and that's a huge edge on Super Bowl history.
But if a defensive player does score a touchdown … could he also win Super Bowl MVP?
Super Bowl MVP: Defenders Can and Do Win
Defenders can and do win Super Bowl MVP — and a lot more often than you'd think!
We've seen 10 defensive players win MVP. Two of them won it as co-MVPs, but even so, that's nine defensive MVPs in 59 Super Bowls or 15.3%. That's more than once every seven Super Bowls!
In fact, would you believe more defenders have won Super Bowl MVP than receivers or running backs?
That fact might encourage you to sprinkle on one of the game's defensive stars as an unlikely MVP pick.
Again, it can be wise to just keep things simple. There are 11 defensive starters on each team and a plethora of other defenders that will also see the field in relief.
We can bet any defensive player to win Super Bowl MVP at +1500 at theScore. That's 6.3% implied, giving us over 2.4x value on the historical odds of a defensive MVP.
Of course, we're greedy and want the exacta winner too, so let's sprinkle three long-shot names.
And it doesn't necessarily need to be the best defenders on the field.
Seattle fans, do you recall the Super Bowl MVP of your last title? Not many remember LB Malcolm Smith, who won it in 2014. Dexter Jackson and Larry Brown are other relatively anonymous defenders who made a big play when it mattered most and stole MVP.
Christian Gonzalez is a lock-down corner for New England, and Leonard Williams is a force up the middle for Seattle, but those guys don't necessarily make splash plays. We're looking for big, game-changing plays — sacks, turnovers, even a touchdown.
Let's take a stab at three long-shot defensive MVPs.
Start with New England's Marcus Jones (+15000 at BetRivers). He's the third corner but that makes him more of a target, and that means opportunity. Jones has four interceptions this season and returned two of them for scores. He's also an electric punt returner and has two scores that way.
Next up is Seattle's DeMarcus Lawrence (+15000 at BetMGM), who had six regular season sacks and added one in each of Seattle's playoff games so far, along with three forced fumbles. He's got a juicy matchup against rookie LT Will Campbell, who has struggled mightily in these playoffs. Lawrence has four career touchdowns, including a league-leading two off fumbles this season.
Last, let's add Ernest Jones (+20000 at theScore). Three of the four defensive MVPs this century have been linebackers, right in the middle of all the action, and Jones led Seattle in both interceptions (five) and combined tackles (30 more than anyone else). He plays nearly every snap and should rack up tackles and opportunities, and he'll be in great position to jump a rushed Drake Maye checkdown.
Defense wins championships.
And in the Super Bowl, defense turns profits for bettors too. Place your bets and wait for the big play.
In summary, here are my defensive bets:
- Either team to score a defensive or special teams touchdown (+265, Circa)
- Seahawks D/ST anytime TD & Seahawks ML (+833, theScore)
- Patriots D/ST anytime TD & Patriots ML (+2703, theScore)
- Any defensive player to win Super Bowl MVP (+1500, theScore)
- Marcus Jones to win Super Bowl MVP (+15000, BetRivers)
- DeMarcus Lawrence to win Super Bowl MVP (+15000, BetMGM)
- Ernest Jones to win Super Bowl MVP (+20000, theScore)
