Every Sunday night, I'll reveal the bets I'd recommend for the following week of the NFL season. Lines move quickly, so it's important that you make your NFL predictions as quickly as possible.
Here are the NFL Week 17 predictions I made before recording the recap episode of "The Action Network Podcast" on Sunday night.
NFL Week 17 Picks
Chargers vs. Patriots Prediction
This is just a bad line stuck in no man's land after the New England Patriots "hung in" against the Bills. They had a 14-7 lead and still would've lost by 10 if not for a garbage-time touchdown.
The Los Angeles Chargers still need to win to clinch a playoff spot and want to improve seeding. Let's go through some possibilities for playoff seeding:
- 7 seed — would face the 2 seed Bills
- 6 seed — probably would face the Steelers or Ravens
- 5 seed — Texans
L.A.'s huge win on Thursday night against Denver puts itself on the brink with extra rest, while the Patriots have a short week playing a day earlier than normal.
We can't ignore the massive coaching advantage here as well. While Jerod Mayo of the Pats got a "vote of confidence" from management, he's still a rookie coach with a rookie quarterback.
Meanwhile, Jim Harbaugh thrives when his squads are listed as favorites. He has a 64% rate ATS — the best of any coach in Bet Labs with 15 games this season. Not only that, he's also 26-7 ATS as a favorite by six points or less.
Chargers defensive coordinator Jesse Minter is one of the best assistants in the league, always coming in well-prepared. His scheme presents a confusing outlook, especially for a rookie QB in Drake Maye.
New England can't run the ball to save its life, ranking 32nd in run offense, and the defense is there for the taking.
I'd also expect a pretty big lead early on. The Chargers are 10-5 this season ATS in the first half, while the Pats are 5-10.
Either way, I see this being a pretty big win for the Chargers. I have this spread marked for at least 8, so take this at 4.5 while it's still there.
NFL Week 17 Teasers
It's so dangerous betting ATS on these fringe playoff teams in must-win games.
You have two teams with a 40-60% win rate, going against teams with an 8-25% rate, and history tells us that going against the spread doesn't work in our favor (30%).
Frankly, I think both of these lines are a touch high for favorites, so let's tease them.
Do I trust Anthony Richardson on the road? No shot. However, I do trust the 2-13 Giants to find a way to blow it.
The Giants control their own destiny for the number one overall pick in the NFL Draft for now. No tiebreakers here, just lose baby!
It'll be tough, though, since the Colts have been unpredictable this season. They were up 38-7 against the Titans, only letting up 111 yards before garbage time.
Richardson only completed seven passes against Tennessee, so just give it to Jonathan Taylor to run through a defense with nothing left in the tank.
Additionally, the Colts' defense is quietly in the top quarter of the league, including a top-five pass DVOA.
Round two of our teaser includes a personal teaser favorite in the Miami Dolphins.
They're a disappointing team, just reeking of mediocrity, but anything beats the Browns.
Dorian Thompson-Robinson doesn't seem to be a legit NFL quarterback, taking five sacks and throwing two interceptions against a porous Cincinnati defense.
Miami, on the other hand, has a top-10 run defense, which will force DTR to throw the ball. Can we really trust that?
I'm sure the Dolphins can find a way to pull through. Cleveland's defense has fallen off the wagon this season, so this looks like a decent spot for the Fins.
