Every week during the 2024 season, I share my three favorite NFL picks against the spread (ATS) on my betting card for every Sunday slate.
For reference, here are my season-long records.
- 2023: 37-17
- 2024: 13-19-1
- Overall: 50-36-1 (58.1%)
If you're looking to bet on some ugly underdogs this week, you've come to the right place. Here are my expert NFL predictions and Week 12 picks for Sunday with all three in the early window.
NFL Predictions: Week 12
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Prediction: Colts +7.5
I might be on an island with this one going against the juggernaut Lions, who have gone an astounding 41-16 ATS over their past 57 games, including a league-best 8-2 against the number so far this season.
However, I simply can't get to this number. In fact, I can't even get to 7 yet alone 7.5. Keep in mind the Bills recently closed -4 at Indianapolis. However, after another Lions blowout victory, I think we are getting a bit of value on the other side, which tends to happen after teams win by more than five touchdowns in the NFL.
Since 2003, teams coming off a win by more than 35 points have gone 39-56-4 ATS (41.1%) in their following game. That includes a 27-41-1 ATS (39.7%) mark as a favorite (11-20-1 on the road).
Plus, if there ever was a potentially flat spot for the Lions, this might be it. After another easy win, they hit the road for a non-conference game ahead of a short week divisional game on Thanksgiving. Meanwhile, the Colts are in complete desperation mode with a 5-6 record, needing every win for their wild card hopes.
There's also a few things I like from a matchup perspective.
The Colts defense, which has gotten healthy after dealing with a number of key injuries earlier this season, runs as much zone coverage as any team in the league. That predictability can hurt them some weeks, but it actually gives them the best shot at slowing down this Detroit offense. While Jared Goff has been nearly flawless against man coverage this year, his numbers against zone are very pedestrian.
On the other side of the ball, Anthony Richardson is coming off his best passing game as a pro by a wide margin. Not only can he build on that performance, his legs should pose problems for a Detroit defense (with a few injuries) that has really struggled to contain mobile quarterbacks under defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn. The Lions run a ton of cover 1, which I think Richardson can have plenty of success against moving forward.
While Detroit has undoubtedly been the best team in the NFL to date, it has also benefited from a below-average strength of schedule with a number of hidden breaks along the way.
- Seahawks and Cowboys when their defenses were completely decimated by injury
- Mac Jones was under center for the Jaguars
- Texans didn't have Nico Collins
- It had 262 return yards and a +4 turnover margin vs. the Titans
- Jordan Love clearly wasn't fully healthy in their victory over the Packers
Meanwhile, the Colts have played a top-5 schedule to date and have been in virtually every game with a 10-point loss to Buffalo marking their only game that hasn't been decided by a one possession margin. I think we're in store for another close game here, so I'll happily take the hook.
Trending: Who wants to fade a team with a 90% winning percentage and averaging 33.6 points per game? Well, just to provide some historical context. In the month of November and December, teams averaging more than 31 points per game with a 90% (or better) winning percentage have gone just 5-20 ATS (20%) as a road favorite over the past 20 years, failing to cover by more than five points per game on average. Of those 25 home dogs, 21 either won outright or lost by 7 or less.
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Prediction: Titans +8.5
It's been about a month since I've gone back to this deep well that I fell into too many times early in the season, but time heals all wounds and I'm willing to give Tennessee more one shot (for now).
Amazingly, the Titans are 1-9 ATS on the season, which is extremely rare in the efficient NFL market. In fact, only one other team (2007 Ravens, who I remember well) to start 1-9 against the number through 11 weeks over the past 30 seasons.
Have we hit rock bottom in the market? I believe so. It's not like the Titans have been uncompetitive, and they've played one of the five toughest schedules to date.
They've just invented ways to not cover — some of their own undoing (penalties, horrid special teams, and asinine turnovers) but others due to factors out of their control. For example, last week against the Vikings, they were absolutely hosed by the officials throughout the entire game.
It was one of the most lopsided officiated games I've ever watched and I can say that as an unbiased observer with zero dollars on that particular game. To wit, on the season, Tennessee has been the second unluckiest team (ahead of only the Giants), per our latest Luck Rankings.
Tennessee's defense continues to play at a very high level, ranking sixth in Success Rate. While the special teams remain a mess, there's definitely always some variance in those numbers over the short term.
It's the offense that has started to improve just a bit that gives me some form of confidence in backing them this week. Just take a look at their yards per play margin over their past four games where they have out-gained their opponents by more than 250 total net yards:
- +0.3 (5.7-5.4) vs. Chargers
- +0.6 (5.3-4.7) vs. Vikings
- +1.1 (5.9-4.8) vs. Lions
- +1.0 (5.5-4.5) vs. Patriots
Since returning from injury two games ago, Will Levis has played better against a pair of very good defenses (Chargers and Vikings). Over that two-week period, he ranks 21st among 32 qualified quarterbacks in Adjusted EPA per Play. That may not sound great, but he ranked 39th out of 42 quarterbacks (min. 50 plays) over the first nine weeks — ahead of only Spencer Rattler, Deshaun Watson, and Bryce Young.
The right tackle situation remains an abomination, but I've liked some of the play-calling adjustments with Levis using his mobility a bit more as well. I'm sure Levis will be under fire all game against a Texans defense that can really generate pressure (expect a handful of drive-killing sacks), but I expect the same when the Texans have the ball.
Houston's offense remains broken in large part due to the issues along the offensive line, which Tennessee can take full advantage of with Jeffery Simmons and T'Vondre Sweat, who make up one of the league's best interior fronts.
Plus, Tennessee, which ranks sixth in Rush Success Rate allowed, can contain Joe Mixon, who is really the head of the snake of this Houston offense at the moment. That should lead to plenty of third-and-long situations in which the Titans can generate some negative drive-killing plays of their own in known passing situations.
If you couldn't tell, I also like the under in battle of two slow-paced division foes whose defensive lines should dominate the line of scrimmage. Points should come at a premium in a game where explosives should be few and far between, which obviously makes the +8.5 even more valuable, especially against a Texans team that hasn't thrived as favorite under CJ Stroud (6-10 ATS) in part due to a coaching staff that gets too conservative at all of the wrong times.
Trending: Road divisional dogs with a low total (less than 44) have gone 354-291-17 ATS (54.9%) since 2003.
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Prediction: Giants +6
This is the ultimate hold your nose spot with Tommy DeVito getting the nod under center. I'm almost positive DeVito is horrendous after watching him last year (and in college) where he finished 45th out of 49 quarterbacks (min. 100 plays) in Adjusted EPA per Play.
Although, I will note that everybody said the same exact thing about Malik Willis, who ranked way worse in that same metric prior to this season and now leads the entire NFL in 2024.
Quarterbacks can improve, but more importantly, their situations can get better. Like Willis, DeVito was playing behind one of the league's worst offensive lines with a horrid wide receiver room. The offensive line is a bit better overall this season and the weapons are better on the outside — although it's worth noting that Malik Nabers missed practice on Friday with a groin injury.
If he can't suit up, that would be a major blow, especially considering he wasn't on the injury report all week, so I obviously placed this bet assuming he'd be in the lineup.
Ultimately, I just can't get to this number since I'm much lower than the market on the 4-6 Bucs. And it's not like Daniel Jones was playing at an All-Pro level. There have been guys open all year that he just hasn't hit, while refusing to take shots downfield, which DeVito (who also has some mobility like Jones) will be more willing to do. And it's not like this Bucs defense has been a stalwart.
On the season, Tampa's defense ranks 29th in EPA per Play allowed and 30th in Success Rate. In comparison, the Giants rank 22nd and 20th, respectively. While the Bucs have played the tougher overall schedule, keep in mind the Bucs played the Eagles without DeVonta Smith, AJ Brown and Lane Johnson, who all played against the Giants.
The Bucs also benefited from playing Jayden Daniels in his first ever NFL start (and on the road, which has never gone well for rookie quarterbacks) and the Saints with Spencer Rattle under center. Their best win to date came on the road against the Lions in a game they had no business winning after being out-gained 463-216 with Detroit inexplicably going 1-7 in the red zone.
While Tampa has caught some breaks, New York ranks dead last in our Luck Rankings with five one-possession losses that you could argue is really six if you count their loss against the Bengals, who broke a run in the final minute to win by 10. The Giants also only have a league-low one interception and are the only team to score a touchdown on fewer than 40% of their red zone trips. Conversely, the Bucs rank third behind the elite Cincy and Baltimore offenses.
I wouldn't be surprised if some turnover regression worked in the Giants favor this game. Not only are they overdue for an interception or two, the Bucs offense has plenty coming on the horizon. Not only has Tampa recovered 10 of its 13 fumbles, Baker Mayfield has 24 touchdowns to just 9 interceptions despite a 13:15 big time throw to turnover worthy play rate even with a minuscule 6.4 ADOT.
Plus, Baker should be under pressure all game where he has historically seen his numbers fall off a cliff. New York's biggest strength lies along its defensive front, which should get Kayvon Thibodeaux back from injury on Sunday. The G-Men are fully capable of wrecking havoc on this game up front.
That's particularly troubling for Tampa, which will likely be without star left tackle Tristan Wirfs, who is one of the best in the business. It's a massive drop-off to his replacement Justin Skule. He has plenty of experience, but has also received more help blocking than any other tackle in the league in 2024, while Wirfs has received the least.
New York also has allowed the second fewest YAC in the league, which matters in this particular matchup, as the Tampa offense paces the entire NFL in that category. Bucky Irving should have a big day at the office against a suspect NY run defense, but I expect Baker to cough it up once or twice when the pressure gets home.
Lastly, it's not like the Bucs are fully healthy. I already mentioned Wirfs, but Chris Godwin remains out. It does look like Mike Evans will suit up, but he could be on a snap count. Tampa's cornerback group also still has some lingering injury issues worth monitoring throughout the game.
Now, the injury news could work against me with Wirfs and Nabers, which wasn't even a consideration when I placed this bet, but I still think the Giants can keep this close in what should be a lower scoring game between two slow-paced offenses on a cold and windy day in East Rutherford. I anticipate Daboll will try to shorten this game and rely on Tyrone Tracy, who should have a productive day.
Hopefully, we get the Tommy Cutlets from the Green Bay game last year. It can't be much worse than what we've seen from Daniel Jones in his home games.
Trending: Baker Mayfield is 16-27-1 ATS (37.2%) as a favorite, including 10-18-1 (35.7%) when laying at least a field goal, failing to cover by almost three points per game.
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