Since the dawn of gambling, the dream has been to turn a tiny amount of money into a lot. Lotteries, slot machines, etc. — they all offer the same appeal.
Since the legalization of online sports betting, we can add same-game parlays to that list. So, we have Lions vs. 49ers parlay picks for Monday Night Football.
Lions vs. 49ers Parlay
- Lions Alternate Spread -5.5 (+114)
- Isaac Guerendo Under 60.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
- Ricky Pearsall Anytime TD (+550)
Full Lions vs. 49ers Parlay Odds: +1888 | $10 Bet Wins $188.80
NFL parlays aren't the smartest bets — I'll be the first to tell you that. Given the complex correlations among the legs, fair odds are nearly impossible to calculate. However, parlays are fun. Much like lottery tickets, it's nice to dream every once in a while.
You could make some "sensible" SGPs with alternate legs and try to cash a +200 ticket, but that's not what this article is about. Inspired by my colleague Gilles Gallant's "180 Challenge," which has already hit twice this season, we're looking for bigger payouts.
Of course, with primetime games on multiple days every week, we'll need a winner each day of the week, but we'll also have more chances to bring it home. Without further ado, here's what I'm targeting for my Lions vs. 49ers Monday Night Football parlay for Week 17 on FanDuel.
Lions Alt Spread -5.5 (+114)
I'm trying to squeeze a bit of extra juice out of this parlay by taking the Lions on an alternate spread.
The way these teams match up this week, if and when the Lions get off to a lead, they should have no problem holding onto and expanding it, while San Francisco will struggle to catch up.
Detroit has the No. 1 run-blocking offensive line in the NFL while San Francisco ranks 24th in DVOA against the run but fifth against the pass.
On the other side of the ball, San Francisco is missing at least two (and probably three) of its top offensive tackles, making it incredibly hard to protect Brock Purdy. That's on top of their revolving door at running back.
Therefore, Detroit should be able to move the ball easily on the ground while the 49ers can't take deep shots in the passing attack. If Detroit wins, it probably wins big.
Isaac Guerendo Under 60.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
San Francisco's offensive line troubles are a big factor here considering Detroit has a top-10 run defense by DVOA on the season.
While that number is a little misleading because of all of the injuries in the Lions' front seven, it's still going to be tough for the 49ers to move the ball. Plus, the game script likely makes rushing difficult for the 49ers, especially if the Lions end up covering the alternate spread.
While Guerendo got in a full practice Friday, he's also been dealing with injuries that caused him to miss last week. There's no reason for the 49ers to run him into the ground in a meaningless game, so look for him to split carries with Patrick Taylor as well.
Ricky Pearsall Anytime TD (+550)
Pearsall's anytime TD prop is the biggest edge in our Prop Projections this week, and it makes a lot of sense.
Detroit plays man coverage at (by far) the highest rate in the NFL. Of all the 49ers receivers, Pearsall sees the biggest jump in targets against man coverage. His target share more than doubles relative to his workload against zone defense.
It would make sense for the 49ers to prioritize getting some reps for their first-round draft pick since the season is officially lost. There's no reason to risk more established veterans and Pearsall could use the work after missing the first half of the season.
Of course, the best part of this pick is the odds. Since we already have some pro-Lions props, this pick juices the total odds to +1888.
Full Lions vs. 49ers Parlay Odds: +1888 | $10 Bet Wins $188.80
