The New York Jets (2-7) and New England Patriots (8-2) meet tonight for Week 11 Thursday Night Football on November 13. Kickoff is set for in 8:15 p.m. ET from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass. The game will broadcast on Prime Video.
The Patriots are 13-point favorites on the spread over the Jets (Patriots -13; -110); the game total is 43.5 points. (-108o/ -112u). The Jets are +625 underdogs and the Patriots are -950 moneyline favorites.
Let's get into my Jets vs Patriots predictions for Thursday Night Football, plus the latest NFL odds, betting trends, injury reports, viewing information and more.
Jets vs Patriots Predictions, Picks
- Jets vs Patriots pick: 1st Half Total Under 22.5
My Jets vs Patriots best bet is the 1st-half game total under 22.5 points. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Jets vs Patriots Odds
| Jets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+13 -110 | 43.5 -108o / -112u | +625 |
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-13 -110 | 43.5 -108o / -112u | -950 |
Thursday Night Football Preview, Prediction
When the Jets Have the Ball
Justin Fields is expected to remain the starting quarterback after “leading” the Jets to a 27–20 win over the Browns.
Fields wasn’t asked to do much, completing 6-of-11 passes for 54 yards. It’s become a recurring theme — ridiculously low passing numbers from this offense all season.
The Jets posted the second-lowest pass rate over expected (-22.4%) of the entire season on Sunday, and without Garrett Wilson, I’d expect another run-heavy game plan.
The problem with that approach is that New England's defense has been more of a pass funnel, ranking 28th in DVOA against the pass and ninth against the run, while allowing the lowest rushing yards over expected per attempt (-0.44) in the NFL.
When Fields does drop back, the Patriots blitz at a bottom-10 rate, which doesn’t help him — he ranks eighth of 33 QBs against the blitz, but 32nd in EPA/dropback when facing four or fewer rushers.
There’s really no angle that suggests the Jets can put up many points tonight — at least not more than the market expects. Two of their three touchdowns against the Browns came on special teams (a 99-yard kick return and a 74-yard punt return), which are fluky and non-predictive.
Our expected score metric (used in the Luck Rankings) pegged the Jets closer to 18 points instead of 27, meaning the market might still be overrating them slightly, even though sentiment is already near rock bottom.
When the Patriots Have the Ball
The Patriots offense is playing at a high level, with Drake Maye breaking out in Year 2 — ranking fourth in EPA/dropback — and still developing chemistry with a mostly new WR corps.
Stefon Diggs and Mack Hollins are the Patriots' top new weapons, and with Kayshon Boutte expected to miss another game, DeMario Douglas and rookie Kyle Williams (coming off a 72-yard TD) should keep things humming. This might actually be the optimal WR rotation for New England.
The same logic applies in the backfield.
With Rhamondre Stevenson ruled out and Terrell Jennings questionable, TreVeyon Henderson should lead the way again after his 14/147/2 breakout against the Bucs. It’s likely how head coach Mike Vrabel should be deploying him all along.
The Jets, meanwhile, traded Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams, making this matchup even softer for the Patriots than season-long numbers suggest.
DE Will McDonald IV and DT Harrison Phillips are questionable, and CB Azareye’h Thomas has been ruled out. This could be a defense missing multiple starters by kickoff.
Even with some offensive injuries, I expect the Patriots to operate close to their ceiling. That said, they’re coming off a game where they scored 28 points but had just 20 expected points — three TDs came on plays of 55+ yards, the kind of explosive production that tends to regress.
Jets vs Patriots Predictions, Over/Under Bet
I project this closer to Patriots -10.5, so the spread feels a bit high at -12.5.
I agree that the sharp side is probably the Jets, but I don’t love betting “not as bad as people think” narratives when the value is thin and not on key numbers.
The total of 43.5 is right in line with my projection, but the first-half under is where I see the best angle.
The Patriots should move the ball, but on a short week and coming off a big win, it could start slow. Meanwhile, the Jets will likely open ultra run-heavy (which plays into the strength of the Pats defense), keeping the clock moving early. Both teams rank bottom eight in neutral-script pace, which supports a slower first half.
If the Jets fall behind by multiple scores in the second half, we could see Justin Fields benched for Tyrod Taylor, who’s better suited for a pass-heavy trailing script — potentially boosting late scoring, especially with TreVeyon Henderson capable of breaking long runs and Drake Maye connecting deep when defenses sell out against the run.
That’s why I prefer the 1st half under rather than the full game.
As long as the number stays above 21.5, this remains the most attractive play across sides and totals. Follow me in the app for official plays — I’ll likely be locking in some props before kickoff.
Pick: 1st Half Total Under 22.5 (-110)
Jets vs Patriots Spread Prediction
The Patriots are 13-point favorites at most sportsbooks at the time of writing. I have them around -10.5, so I'm not in line and this is a pass for me.
Jets vs Patriots Moneyline Pick
I have no play on the moneyline.
Jets vs Patriots Over/Under Prediction
I'm in line with the market at 43-43.5 points, but the first half under 22.5 is my play for this game.
Jets vs Patriots Betting Trends
Jets Trends
- The Jets are 1-8 straight up (SU) in road primetime games since 2017
- The Jets are 2-16 SU in their last 18 games against the Patriots
Patriots Trends
- The Patriots are 6-1 against the spread (ATS) during their seven-game winning streak
- Mike Vrabel is 33-11 straight up and 27-16-1 ATS vs. teams under .500 as head coach of the Patriots and Titans
Team-specific trends courtesy of Evan Abrams' Week 11 Betting Primer
Jets vs Patriots Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass. |
| Date: | Thursday, Nov. 13 |
| Time: | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming Options: | Prime Video |
For the latest on NFL injuries, be sure to check out our NFL Injury Report page.
