Drake Maye player props are amongst the hottest for bettors for Super Bowl LX between the Seahawks and Patriots.
The Patriots' star quarterback was a close runner-up for the NFL MVP award, taking a major step forward from his rookie season last year. It's been a rocky postseason for Maye — can he turn it around on the game's biggest stage?
- For more Super Bowl LX coverage check out Chris Raybon's Seahawks vs Patriots preview, which includes his expert NFL picks for tonight’s showdown.
Continue below for my Seahawks vs Patriots picks for Maye in Super Bowl LX.
Drake Maye Player Prop Picks
Drake Maye Over 6.5 Rush Attempts (-135)
By Brit Devine
The Seahawks allowed the 6th-fewest rushing attempts to QBs this season, but looking through the games, they really didn't face too many QBs who have the ability to run as Maye does.
With both teams having stellar defenses against the run game via the RB, a reasonable game plan from each team to keep the sticks moving would be to quickly abandon the typical 1st-down runs that go for 1-2 yards and instead start throwing the ball early and often.
Maye had the 3rd-most rushing attempts of any QB this season, and in 3 postseason games, he has 24 attempts. Maye also led the league on QB scrambles in the regular season (62), and he has 9 in the postseason in 3 games.
In the regular season, Seattle's defense caused QB pressures at the 2nd-quickest rate in the league, so I'm expecting to see Maye use his legs early and often and be the key to the Patriots' "run game" by creating yards on broken pass plays.
Drake Maye Over 35.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
By Chris Raybon
I have Maye surpassing 40 rushing yards in this game. It's the Super Bowl and it's hard to imagine him not leaving it all out there one more time.
He hasn't been impressive as a passer in the playoffs, but he's been a factor in the run game.
In the AFC Championship game, Maye rushed 10 times for 65 yards and a touchdown; in the Wild Card Round, he rushed 10 times for 66 yards.
Maye also doesn't have the same level of pass-catchers at his disposal as Matthew Stafford did. Stefon Diggs and Kayshon Boutte are nice pieces, but they're not at the level of Puka Nacua.
There are some splits worth pointing out here.
In the games, Will Campbell and Jared Wilson were both in the lineup (from Weeks 13-18), Maye had a higher sack rate (10.7 with vs. 6.8 without) and scramble rate (10.4% with vs. 8.7 without). We've seen Campbell in particular get beaten off the ball quite a bit during the playoffs.
Even after adjusting for these being playoff games with an increased level of competition, Maye could be running for his life in this game.
Maye's rushing numbers before and after the Patriots' Week 14 bye:
- Yards per scramble: 6.6 before BYE; 10.8 after
- Designed run attempts: 1.1; 2.0
- Yards per carry on designed runs: 1.4; 4.3
He's doubled and tripled up his rushing production and efficiency in the Patriots' seven games since Week 14.
Maye's rushing yards over/under opened around 31.5 yards; that's ticked up around 5-6 yards since, but this is still bettable as long as it's in the 30s.
