While a top-five duel between Georgia and Alabama headlines the Week 5 college football slate, we're diving into the afternoon games as a pre-party for the SEC showdown.
Our betting experts have three best bets for Wisconsin vs. USC, Mississippi State vs. Texas and more.
So, without further ado, here's our Week 5 NCAAF best bets and three afternoon picks for Saturday, September 28.
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Week 5 NCAAF Best Bets
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 4:15 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Wisconsin vs. USC
USC will make its home Big Ten premiere as it hosts Wisconsin at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on Saturday afternoon.
While this debut should work out in favor of the Trojans, it’ll lack the usual spark that Hollywood is accustomed to.
In a turn of events for Lincoln Riley-led teams, defense is now a mainstay in the game plan and has quickly become the strength of this USC team.
The Trojans rank 29th in the nation in scoring defense, allowing just 15.7 points per game. When we look at the USC strength of schedule, which is second in the nation, this becomes even more impressive.
The USC defense draws an excellent matchup as it faces a struggling Wisconsin offense. The Badgers head to L.A. with the 109th-ranked scoring offense in the nation.
Through three games, the Badgers are averaging just 21.7 points per game, as they’ve failed to manifest anything beyond what can be described as a lethargic passing game.
This won’t be the game in which Wisconsin has a breakthrough in the aerial attack, especially considering the relative strength of the USC passing defense (25th) to its rushing defense (91st).
The Trojans should have no issue clamping down the Badgers’ passing game and forcing them into clock erosion on the ground.
Now, the risk to this bet is that the Trojans go back to last season’s roots as a light it up team, but we just haven’t seen that out of them this season with new starting quarterback Miller Moss under center.
Like USC, Wisconsin has a relative and exploitable weakness in its rush defense, and USC will feature heavy run packages to take advantage of this.
The lights will be bright, but don’t expect the sparks to fly as USC makes its Hollywood debut. Back the under as defense and the run game will be on display.
I recommend betting the under at 48.5 or higher.
Pick: Under 50.5 (Play to 48.5)
Georgia Southern vs. Georgia State
By John Feltman
There are some weather concerns for Saturday due to Hurricane Helene, but the Georgia Southern Eagles and Georgia State Panthers are ready to battle it out for the Commissioner’s Cup.
The Eagles were absolutely trounced by Ole Miss last week, and the Panthers are coming off a bye after defeating Vanderbilt on the road as double-digit underdogs.
The Eagles are 15th nationally in finishing drives, and QB JC French has been efficient through the air thus far. Something has to give in this matchup, though, considering the Panthers are 133rd in finishing drives allowed.
There’s also a massive discrepancy on special teams; the Panthers are 127th in the category. That edge could be all of the difference in a matchup that could be impacted by potential wind.
The Panthers have been strong against the run thus far, but their secondary has been gashed. They’re 115th in defensive passing success rate.
The Georgia State hype has gotten out of hand this week by bettors, and I’m glad to take Georgia Southern +3.5.
I realize how awful the Eagles looked last week, but any Group of Five team would look outmatched against a powerhouse SEC opponent.
French's numbers seem manageable, but I like that he's been efficient through the air and has protected the ball. The Eagles have a dream matchup against a horrific Panthers secondary.
The Eagles' special teams edge is massive, and their PFF Coverage ranking suggests their defense is not as bad as many deem it.
The Eagles can put up points through the air, which was on full display during the Boise State game.
If the game were a pick'em, I would lean Georgia State, but 3.5 points is far too much of an overreaction. Plus, I think the Eagles will be fired up after being embarrassed last week.
Consider me a citizen of France on Saturday afternoon because I’m all in on French and the offense to step up.
Pick: Georgia Southern +3.5 (Play to +3)
Mississippi State vs. Texas
By Brett Pund
This is a game in which Texas can name its score against an awful Mississippi State team. With this being the SEC debut in Austin, I like the Longhorns to get off to a hot start.
Among the many poor metrics, one thing that stands out for this bet is how bad the Bulldogs have been in the first half. Jeff Lebby’s team was down 14 points at halftime after giving up 28 points to Florida last week.
This came after MSU allowed Toledo to roll up 28 points through two quarters to own a 28-3 advantage in Starkvegas.
Meanwhile, the one trip on the road came at Arizona State, where the Sun Devils led 27-3 at the break.
Regardless of who plays quarterback for Texas, we can all agree that this is a big step up in competition here for Mississippi State.
To make matters worse, starting quarterback Blake Shapen is out for the year after an injury he picked up against the Gators.
So, Lebby turns over the offense to true freshman Michael Van Buren Jr., who’s making his first collegiate start at Darrell K Royal Memorial Stadium. He does so behind an offensive line that ranks 123rd in sacks allowed.
Once you add in the fact that the Bulldogs are second in the country in seconds per play, Texas should have plenty of possessions early. The Longhorns should have success against a defense that’s rated outside the top 100 by PFF in tackling and coverage grades.
Texas will want to make a statement in the school’s first game in the SEC, and Mississippi State is the perfect opponent to do so.
