I'll close out the Week 3 slate with four college football picks for the evening slate, including multiple juicy SEC plays and four underdog selections against the spread.
My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 3, here's the full piece.
- 2022-24: 169-123-1 (57.9%)
- 2025: 4-3 (57.1%)
- Overall: 173-126-2 (57.9%)
4 Week 3 College Football Picks for Evening Slate
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:30 p.m. | Florida +7.5 |
  | 7:30 p.m. | Eastern Michigan +24.5 |
  | 7:45 p.m. | Vanderbilt +5.5 |
  | 8 p.m. | Tulsa +14 |
Florida +7.5 at LSU
7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN
Who wants to back Florida after last week? I guess I'll be the lone person to buy low on the Gators above the key number of 7.
We've seen the Gators have these early-season head scratchers under head coach Billy Napier before, but we've also seen them rebound when nobody expected them to get off the mat.
It's also worth noting that Florida should get back defensive lineman Caleb Banks from injury. That will be an enormous addition up front, especially with LSU starting center Braelin Moore dealing with an injury.
If he can't go, LSU would turn to DJ Chester, who just isn't an SEC-caliber starting center at the moment. The Tigers may also have to make do without tight end Trey'Dez Green, who will be particularly missed in the red zone.
Admittedly, I came into the season bullish on the potential upside of LSU (and still am), but part of that had to do with the offensive line coming together to provide more balance for the offense with a viable rushing attack.
The Tigers still have a way to go in that department after averaging under four yards per carry against Louisiana Tech last week. And that picture gets much murkier if Moore can't go.
Lastly, the LSU hype train started after a huge road upset at Clemson, but it's possible that result spoke more about Dabo Swinney's squad than it did about the Bayou Bengals after what we saw last week.
I like that the Gators get to hit the road after an embarrassing loss and expect them to keep this competitive throughout.
Notable Nugget
As a head coach, Billy Napier has thrived as an underdog with a gaudy 26-12 ATS record (68.4%), covering by seven points per contest.
That includes a 12-5 (70.6%) ATS record when catching over a touchdown in addition to a 13-6 overall mark (68.4%) when getting any points against SEC competition.
Pick: Florida +7.5 or Better
Eastern Michigan +24.5 at Kentucky
7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPNU
This might be the ugliest dog of them all. I apologize in advance if you decide to partake in this painful-to-place wager on an EMU team that just lost at home to the Long Island Sharks. Yikes.
However, this is when you back a Chris Creighton team.
He just finds ways to make games close and thrives in the underdog role since he knows how to shorten games with a team that will rarely ever beat itself with turnovers, penalties or special teams mistakes.
After such an embarrassing loss, I expect a focused effort here on the road against a Kentucky team that might be a bit flat after a close loss to Ole Miss.
The Wildcats will have a new starting quarterback under center for this one in Cutter Boley, who actually may end up serving as an upgrade over Zach Calzada.
Time will tell, but I'm trusting the Eagles to keep this close against a Kentucky squad that might just slowly grind its way through this one to, let's say, a three-touchdown win with six potentially ranked SEC foes on deck following a bye week.
The EMU defense is an absolute mess. Therefore, it's entirely possible Kentucky just breaks way too many explosive runs en route to a points bonanza.
However, I'm still trusting an excellent road underdog coach to get us to the window after a humiliating home loss.
Notable Nugget
As a road underdog, EMU head coach Chris Creighton is 34-18-1 (65.4%), covering by 3.5 points per game. He's the most profitable active head coach in that role.
Although, while the sample size is small, it did surprise me to see Mark Stoops has gone 7-2 ATS as a favorite of more than 17 points against FBS foes (4-1 vs. the MAC), covering by nearly a touchdown per game.
Pick: Eastern Michigan +24.5 (Play to +24)
Vanderbilt +5.5 at South Carolina
7:45 p.m. ET ⋅ SEC Network
Earlier in the college football season, bettors are starved for data points, especially in this new era with heavy roster turnover. Well, you can't ask for better data points when it comes to this matchup, as both teams have played Virginia Tech.
In South Carolina's case, it basically played Virginia Tech to a stalemate on a neutral field but pulled away late after an 80-yard punt return touchdown.
Conversely, Vanderbilt went into Blacksburg and absolutely dominated the Hokies, outgaining them, 490-248, with an 8.6-4.1 yards-per-play edge. The Gamecocks actually got outgained, 336-328.
And it's not like South Carolina followed that up with a super impressive performance last week against South Carolina State. The 42.5-point FCS underdog actually finished with more yards (270-253) and almost the same yards per play (4.5-4.4).
Quarterback LaNorris Sellers finished just 11-of-19 for 128 yards, and the rushing attack was once again nonexistent.
This Gamecock team has issues on offense, and its defense lost a plethora of talent to the NFL. Even the special teams (where Vandy should hold an edge) lost all of its key pieces.
Lastly, that South Carolina defense, which already had to deal with an offseason talent drain, is now dealing with significant injuries as well.
Contrary to their respective rankings and public perception, I don't think there's much separating these teams at all. Give me Diego and the points.
Notable Nugget
With Diego Pavia at quarterback, Vanderbilt is 8-2 ATS as an underdog (4-0 ATS on the road) with five outright upsets.
Pick: Vanderbilt +5.5
Tulsa +14 vs. Navy
8 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+
I'm going back to the well, fading Navy for a second straight week as a favorite of at least two touchdowns. You know that potential fade will always pique my interest if you've read this article or listened to our podcast over the years.
Navy still has some issues along the offensive line and on the back end of its defense after losing some real talent at both position groups.
I came into the season higher than the market on Tulsa after really liking the hire of head coach Tre Lamb, who's a massive upgrade over Kevin Wilson.
It was a disappointing effort last weekend in Las Cruces in a game the market bet the Golden Hurricane like it knew the final score.
Quarterback Kirk Francis ended up having a disastrous game before being replaced in the second half (concussion) by Baylor Hayes, who I thought looked very good and came with new head coach Tre Lamb from ETSU. The freshman signal-caller finished an impressive 14-of-17 for 135 yards and has some wheels that give him higher upside in this offense.
Tulsa won't decide on a starting quarterback until later this week, but part of me hopes it's Hayes. Either way, I'm fine with buying low on Tulsa at two touchdowns or more after everybody else abandoned ship.
I expect a spirited effort from Tulsa in front of a good crowd that has some newfound enthusiasm for the program under Lamb in his conference opener.
Notable Nugget
As 14-plus point favorites against FBS competition, the three service academies — Army, Navy and Air Force — have gone 30-46 (39.5%) ATS since 2005. Navy itself has gone 7-18 ATS (28%) in that scenario.
Pick: Tulsa +14 or Better
