Let's get Week 2 of the college football season started with my three top NCAAF predictions for the noon ET slate, including an all-Texas matchup between Baylor and SMU.
My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 2, here's the full piece.
- 2022-23: 99-70-1 (58.6%)
- 2024: 70-53-1 (58.9%)
- 2025: 0-0 (0%)
- Overall: 169-123-2 (57.9%)
Week 2 College Football Picks, Predictions for Noon Slate
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | San Jose State +36.5 |
  | 12 p.m. | Pitt -21 |
  | 12 p.m. | Baylor +4.5 |
San Jose State +36.5 at Texas
12 p.m. ET ⋅ ABC
It would be extremely logical to think that Texas will come out with its hair on fire following a Week 1 loss in Columbus. As a result, the Horns should absolutely demolish a Mountain West team in their home opener.
While that may prove true with a massive talent gap, historically, that has not been the case for top-tiered teams in this spot. More often than not, large ranked favorites come out flatter than you may expect after a high-profile game.
Plus, the line can come out a bit inflated in the obvious bounce-back spot on paper.
The Texas defense looked excellent, holding Ohio State to just 203 total yards. However, the offense with plenty of new pieces looked pretty wonky.
Quarterback Arch Manning had major accuracy issues and didn't look completely comfortable in the pocket. While he will undoubtedly look much sharper this week against a much less inferior opponent, the offense might still take some time to work out all of the kinks.
There's also a chance Manning just never fully lives up to the hype. He also doesn't solve all of the red-zone issues Texas has had in recent seasons that burned it once again last Saturday.
Meanwhile, San Jose State also comes off an opening-season loss as a double-digit home favorite against Central Michigan.
It was certainly a disappointing result for a veteran team expected to compete for a Mountain West title, but I'm willing to give it a bit of a pass against a brand-new CMU offense that really caught it off guard early in the game.
After jumping out to a 10-0 lead in the first quarter, the Chips mustered only 215 total yards over their next 49 plays (4.4 yards per play) and added a pair of field goals en route to a 16-14 victory.
The Spartans also lost the turnover battle, 3-0, and missed a pair of fourth-quarter field goals in a two-point loss.
It's going to be tough sledding for the San Jose State offense.
I doubt it will have much success running the ball, and Nick Nash isn't walking through the door to help out the passing attack — although, Sacramento State transfer Danny Scudero did have nine catches for 189 yards in his team debut.
However, this is still an experienced club that should come out with a fully focused effort (with an extra day of preparation) after a sour opening-season loss.
Plus, as I mentioned previously, Texas could come out flatter than you might predict in its home opener without any difficult opponent on the horizon for the next month.
Most importantly, this is just too big a number compared to my projection of under five touchdowns. This is a large number to cover against a competent team, especially if the offense continues to struggle a bit.
Notable Nugget: Top-15 teams coming off a top-15 loss as 30-plus point favorites have gone 26% ATS over the past 20 seasons, failing to cover by an average of 7.5 points per game.
Notable Nugget
Top-15 teams coming off a top-15 loss as 30-plus point favorites have gone 26% ATS over the past 20 seasons, failing to cover by an average of 7.5 points per game.
Projection: +32.3
Pick: San Jose State +36.5 (Play to +35.5 · Monitoring market to see if this rises back to 37 or38 before locking in)
Pitt -21 vs. Central Michigan
12 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPNU
I just talked about the Chippewas benefiting last week from unveiling their unique run-heavy offense that uses multiple quarterbacks against an opponent that had no idea what to expect.
Well, that won't be the case this week since Pitt will have film on the run scheme and personnel new head coach Matt Drinkall utilized last week.
Additionally, you need to attack this Pitt defense through the air and take advantage of its aggressive coverage on the outside. Central Michigan simply doesn't have the ability to complete that task.
The strength of this Panther defense lies up front, highlighted by an outstanding group of linebackers. They're built to stop a ground-and-pound offensive attack like this.
Expect plenty of run stuffs and negative plays, putting CMU behind the chains, where it will likely be helpless.
I don't love laying three touchdowns against a team that profiles like a service academy (Drinkall came from Army) since they want to shorten the game and limit the amount of overall possessions, which isn't ideal for covering a big number.
However, I'm making an exception here based on the spot, matchup and my projection.
Pitt at least plays with pace and should find plenty of explosive plays through the air and ground with Eli Holstein and Desmond Reid. This team is built to blow out clearly inferior competition.
Lastly, it's not the most ideal situational spot for CMU. Fresh off a hard-fought upset win on the West Coast, it comes back across the country for another road game against Pitt (which stays in its own neighborhood after cruising to a win over an FCS opponent) before taking on in-state big brother Michigan.
Things could get ugly in Acrisure Stadium.
Projection: Pitt -24.2
Pick: Pitt -21 (Play to -22.5)
Baylor +4.5 at SMU
12 p.m. ET ⋅ The CW
I'm buying Baylor this week after its defense got shredded by Jackson Arnold and the Auburn rushing attack in Week 1.
The Tigers dominated in the trenches, but the test likely won't be as difficult this week against, especially against an SMU rushing attack that struggled to get push in a sloppy effort against East Texas A&M.
It's also worth noting that SMU might be without a starting receiver and linebacker, who were both hurt in the opener.
So, what went wrong for Baylor last week?
The offensive line had issues at times, but you can't really fault Sawyer Robertson and company. They finished with more yards and a higher yards per play (6.7!), even with a long run getting called back due to a questionable hold.
They just shot themselves in the foot inside the red zone a few times, coming away with no points. Auburn also had a kick-return touchdown, which certainly didn't help matters.
The problems came on the defensive side of the ball.
Head coach Dave Aranda talked about stopping the run countless times leading up to the game, but he simply sat back in coverage, allowing Auburn to run for over 300 yards.
The lack of adjustments was concerning, especially once they lost stud defensive lineman Jackie Marshall (with another key defender banged up along the interior) in the first quarter.
They just didn't have the horses up front to slow Baylor down without help.
I'd imagine the game plan changes some on that side of the ball, where they should see the return of a key defensive back and don't have to face Auburn's elite wide receiver corps.
However, even that same approach should have much more success against a more pass-heavy SMU offensive attack that looks as if it won't have an elite ground game.
Ultimately, I just trust the Baylor offense more at this point, especially against an SMU defense that lost an abundance of talent from a dominant 2024 unit.
Projection: Baylor +1.8
Pick: Baylor +4.5 (Play to +3)
