College Football Best Bets for Week 14
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 10:30 p.m. | |
  | 11 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
It's been a fun college football season, but it's not over yet.
The evening slate of the final Saturday of the college football regular season is still ahead of us, so let's make the most of it while we still can.
Our college football writers hand-picked four best bets for Saturday night, including two rivalry games to start the window and a final late-night bet on the island to close things out.
Let's get to our Week 14 college football best bets for Saturday night — and be sure to check out our top picks for Saturday's noon and afternoon windows as well.
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Kansas State vs. Iowa State Best Bet for Week 14
I’ll back the home team that has much more to play for in what should be a fun one on Saturday night in Ames.
After surviving a scare at Utah last week, Iowa State controls its destiny to make the Big 12 Championship game in Arlington and should come out ready to go in this rivalry Farmageddon matchup.
Quarterback Rocco Becht should have plenty of opportunities to find his receivers down the field against a suspect KSU secondary.
Meanwhile, for the Wildcats, quarterback Avery Johnson has been inconsistent, particularly on the road, all season.
I expect him to make a couple of costly turnovers in front of a raucous Jack Trice crowd.
The Wildcats should find some success in the rushing game, but it won’t be enough to keep pace with an inspired Cyclones team.
Give me ISU to win and cover.
Pick: Iowa State -2 (Play to -2.5)
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Washington vs. Oregon Best Bet for Week 14
Show no mercy and offer no quarter.
This year’s iteration of the Washington-Oregon matchup means a little more to Dan Lanning than usual. The third-year Ducks head coach had his team’s College Football Playoff hopes dashed last season thanks to two losses to the Huskies.
Those two losses dropped Lanning to 0-3 SU and 0-2-1 ATS versus Washington, with all three defeats coming by exactly three points.
This season, the Ducks are undefeated with a major upper hand in talent, while Washington is counting its lucky stars that it won just enough games to secure bowl eligibility.
Oregon brings into this matchup a top-25 scoring offense that has cleared this number in four of its past five games.
The Ducks have scored over 30 points in nine of their 11 games, and while quarterback Dillon Gabriel is a Heisman candidate, Oregon is even more efficient at running the ball with Jordan James, who's one of five Big Ten backs with over 1,000 rushing yards.
Washington’s biggest weakness is its run defense. The Huskies are 15th in the Big Ten in that department and have been gashed for 220 or more yards twice in the last five games.
So even if Oregon elects to keep things conservative with the Big Ten Championship on deck, the Ducks will still be effective in moving the ball.
If Oregon gets out to a big lead, there’s no way Lanning calls off the dogs. This is personal. And against a defense that allowed 40 points to Iowa, there’s no telling what the Huskies could give up to a motivated Lanning and Co.
Pick: Oregon Team Total Over 34.5 or Better
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Air Force vs. San Diego State Best Bet for Week 14
By Joshua Nunn
Right or wrong, I'm riding with the Flyboys again this week.
Many were stunned to see Air Force whip up on Oregon State as badly as it did a couple of weeks back and then follow that up with a straight-up win on the road at Nevada last week.
The entire attitude of this offensive line has changed, and the ground game has finally found its rhythm, which was missing most of the season.
While looking at season averages and season-long advanced metrics, the numbers are still going to look poor for the Falcons. However, the offense has put up 932 rushing yards over the last three games while scoring 29 points per game.
Quarterback Quentin Hayes has led the charge after taking over for John Busha. Dylan Carson has been hitting holes hard from the fullback (B-Back in the triple option) spot, and Owen Allen and Cade Harris have found their footing as pitch men.
San Diego State has given up 200-plus rushing yards six times this season, including its last four games. The Aztecs' stop unit is consistently out of position defensively and doesn’t tackle very well.
Giving up 6.3 yards per carry over that four-game stretch is very concerning and certainly not a recipe for success against an Air Force team that will possess the ball and bashes its opponents five yards at a time.
Meanwhile, the SDSU offense continues to go nowhere fast. After racing out to a 13-0 lead last week, it didn’t score again until the final minute when the game was already decided.
The Aztecs' rushing attack has been better of late, but this unit is entirely reliant on Marquez Cooper to move the ball. No one else on the team has any production on the ground, so I expect Air Force to play sound assignment football on defense with Cooper being the focus.
Air Force is a proud group, and winning four straight games would be a big momentum boost to salvage an otherwise difficult season. It could also have an outside shot at a bowl at 5-7 if there aren't enough bowl-eligible teams, which is likely.
The attitude of this team has completely changed, so I'm riding with Air Force again.
Pick: Air Force -4.5 (Play to -6.5)
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New Mexico vs. Hawaii Best Bet for Week 14
What better way to close the regular season than with the final regular-season game of the day at 11 p.m. ET on the island?
New Mexico head coach Bronco Mendenhall has the Lobos 5-6 and one win away from reaching a bowl game for the first time since 2016.
UNM is coming off a big upset win over Washington State before a bye week, and the added time should alleviate any disadvantages of traveling out to Hawaii.
My favorite part of this Hawaii team is its secondary under new defensive coordinator Dennis Thurman, but that isn’t going to matter much here.
The Lobos are seventh in the country in Rushing Success Rate and have one of the most dominant one-two punches in the country.
Quarterback Devon Dampier is a human highlight reel. He's averaging 96.8 yards per game with 16 touchdowns on the year. Lead back Eli Sanders adds 85 yards per game with nine scores. Both of them have averaged more than 7.2 yards per carry.
Not only do the Rainbow Warriors rank 88th in the country in Rush Success Rate allowed and surrender 4.5 yards per carry, but they have had issues with mobile quarterbacks. Washington State's John Mateer rushed for two touchdowns, and UNLV’s Hajj-Malik Williams posted 122 yards and a touchdown.
Hawaii has allowed over 120 rushing yards five times this season. It lost all five of those games. Teams that can run on the Rainbow Warriors have beaten them, and the Lobos will be able to run it here.
New Mexico has won five of its last seven games and is highly motivated to fight for a bowl game that will mean a lot to this program. Hawaii is 4-7 and has won just two of its last seven games. It has nothing to play for anymore.
A win here would be a huge step for the Lobos program. Back Bronco’s boys to get it done on the island.
Pick: New Mexico -2.5 (Play to -3)
