Let's close out Week 13 with a bang.
I have three spots circled for the night slate, highlighted by a huge SEC battle between Tennessee and Florida in the Swamp.
Read on for my Week 13 college football picks and Saturday night predictions.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | New Mexico -3 |
  | 7:30 p.m. | Florida +4.5 |
  | 7:45 p.m. | LSU -21.5 |
New Mexico -3 at Air Force
7 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS Sports Network
New Mexico still has everything to play for with a chance to make it to the Mountain West championship.
Meanwhile, Air Force has now officially been eliminated from bowl contention following last week's loss at UConn.
Most importantly, Air Force lost starting quarterback Liam Szarka to a season-ending injury in that defeat. That's an absolutely enormous loss for the Falcons. Not only did Szarka bring a bona fide passing element to the triple option, but he also led one of the most efficient Group of 5 offenses in rushing.
It should be a significant drop-off to Kemper Hodges, especially through the air, which really matters in this particular matchup.
The Air Force offense ranks in the top five nationally in EPA per Pass, which would have likely caused significant problems for a porous New Mexico secondary that ranks outside the top 100 in most pass defense categories.
However, the Lobos have been very stout against the run (top 35 in Success Rate), which should help them immensely on Saturday, especially without Szarka.
Meanwhile, New Mexico's offense should get whatever it wants against one of the nation's worst defenses. Air Force is particularly poor against the pass (dead last in Success Rate), which is where the Lobos excel under head coach Jason Eck.
However, they should also succeed on the ground against a defense that ranks dead last in yards before contact allowed. You can expect the run to set up plenty of shots downfield that will lead to an abundance of explosive plays against an extremely slow-footed Air Force secondary.
Even Wyoming's Kaden Anderson went 23-for-39 passing against the Falcons, who have two FBS wins on the season against SJSU and Wyoming in games where they won the turnover battle 5-0 despite getting out-gained.
As long as New Mexico takes care of the ball, it should pick up a big road win in Colorado Springs.
Pick: New Mexico -3 or Better
Florida +4.5 vs. Tennessee
7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ABC
Florida has dominated this series over the past 20 seasons with a 17-3 overall record. That includes a perfect 10-0 mark at home (8-2 ATS) in the Swamp, which remains one of the best home-field advantages for big games in all of college football.
There were legitimate questions about whether Florida would mail it in the season after it never got off the bus in Lexington following a heartbreaking loss to Georgia.
Keep in mind, just a few weeks ago on a neutral field, the Gators closed as 7-point underdogs against the Dawgs in a game it arguably should have won if not for a fumble and a couple of questionable calls.
However, Florida did show up in Oxford, losing a hard-fought game to an Ole Miss team likely headed to the College Football Playoff. I expect a game effort from the Gators once again at home against a rival in prime time.
I still maintain this Vols team is a bit overrated.
The offense has been dynamite with transfer quarterback Joey Aguilar (even if he is a bit mistake-prone). Still, the defense remains very vulnerable following key offseason losses up front, as well as injuries to star cornerbacks Jermod McCoy and Rickey Gibson III, who will not suit up again this week.
And without some fortunate turnover luck, Tennessee easily could have lost to both Mississippi State (overtime comeback win) and Arkansas (3-point home win).
I'm watching the injury report for Florida, which has dealt with several key injuries on both sides of the ball throughout the season. The Gators will be without defensive end George Gumbs Jr., but I believe he's been playing hurt lately anyway.
The key one worth monitoring is safety Bryce Thornton (listed as questionable), who matters on the back end. The same goes for wide receiver Vernell Brown III, who I do think will return this week after warming up in pregame last week.
As Florida's leading receiver on the season, he'd provide another much-needed weapon on the outside, especially with both Wilsons (Tre and Dallas) out for the year.
Additionally, it looks like star defensive tackle Caleb Banks will return from an injury that has kept him out of action for almost the entire season.
The future potential first-round draft pick would provide a desperately needed boost to a defensive line that can't generate much pressure without blitzing. And pressure is the key to forcing Aguilar into mistakes.
More importantly, Florida should get its ground game going with ease against Tennessee, which will, in turn, make life easier for quarterback DJ Lagway and the entire offensive operation.
On the season, Tennessee's defense ranks in the bottom 10 nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed, which will be extremely problematic against a Florida offense that ranks in the top 20 in that department.
The Gators' front, which excels in run blocking, should get a consistent push up front for running back Jadan Baugh.
Lastly, Florida will have a special teams edge, which could prove to be the difference in what's expected to be a competitive game.
Don't sleep on the Swamp, and don't get caught up in looking at the difference in these teams' respective records. Florida has played the single most challenging schedule in the country, while Tennessee's strength of schedule barely sits in the top 50.
Accounting for home-field advantage, this line implies that Tennessee is more than a touchdown better than Florida. I don't see that in a game where I believe the Vols shouldn't be favored by more than a field goal on the road.
Pick: Florida +4 or Better
LSU -21.5 vs. Western Kentucky
7:45 p.m. ET ⋅ SEC Network
I make this spread over 24 points, so this is my biggest edge, from a pure numbers perspective, for the entire weekend.
It's fair to question whether LSU will care about this non-conference matchup after a thrilling win over Arkansas, with a chance to play spoiler at Oklahoma up next.
However, while I certainly could be wrong, I don't really have any concerns from a motivational standpoint.
After all, this is LSU's final home game of the season and will be played in primetime. Plus, the Tigers seem to be playing very hard for interim head coach Frank Wilson.
I actually have more questions about how Western Kentucky will approach this likely unwinnable game with a huge showdown next week against Jacksonville State that will likely decide its chances at getting to the conference championship game.
Is the staff spending the week preparing for that game? Do they sit anybody dealing with nagging injuries? Both are certainly possible.
Meanwhile, LSU could get linebacker Whit Weeks back from injury, which would provide a considerable boost to an already nasty defense.
It doesn't look like Garrett Nussmeier will suit up at quarterback, but I'm fine with Michael van Buren under center for this matchup, especially since Nussmeier has been playing hurt for most of the season.
While the Nus Bus has not lived up to the hype, the primary culprit for LSU's underwhelming season has been poor offensive line play. The protection hasn't been good enough against SEC fronts, and there has been no run game to speak of.
That should change on Saturday night against a Western Kentucky defense that ranks outside the top-100 in yards before contact allowed and gets almost no pressure (bottom-10 in sack EPA) despite playing one of the nation's easiest schedules.
Speaking of strength of schedules, this is one of the widest disparities of the weekend.
Per Sagarin, LSU has played the sixth-most difficult slate to date, while Western Kentucky ranks 154th (including FCS teams).
The difference between this year's extremely deep SEC and a very down C-USA is hard to put into words. Just take a look at the Hilltopper wins this season:
- Sam Houston
- North Alabama
- Nevada (out-gained)
- Missouri State (Bears quarterback got hurt in close WKU win)
- Delaware (out-gained by almost 100 yards in a flukey WKU win)
- Louisiana Tech (by 1 in OT; needed an improbable late 4th down conversion)
- New Mexico State
- Middle Tennessee
It doesn't get much easier than that path to eight wins with a couple that probably should have been losses. In fact, I don't have any of those eight teams power rated inside the top-100.
Since taking over as the starting quarterback, Rodney Tisdale has had two impressive starts, but both came at home against bottom-feeders (NMSU and La Tech). His numbers under pressure remain very worrisome, especially given the lack of quality competition. The freshman may make quite a few critical mistakes in a very hostile environment against a defense that can certainly throw some exotic looks at him.
Western Kentucky (which also lost at home by 19 to FIU) has really only faced one (barely) above-average team in Toledo in a game it lost 45-21 on the road. This is a significant step up in class for the Hilltoppers, while it will provide a nice reprieve for an LSU squad that could use a feel-good blowout victory after a disappointing year.
As long as the Tigers care, they should be able to stretch their legs and win this by more than three touchdowns.
Pick: LSU -22.5 or Better
