College football Week 11 is here, so let's dive into our favorite favorites on the board.
You may be familiar with our weekly moneyline underdog article. Well, we decided a couple of years ago that we needed to show love for the other side by also sharing our two favorite college football favorites that we share weekly on the Big Bets on Campus podcast.
We affectionately refer to them as "overdogs," thanks to one of our beloved callers.
This week, there are plenty of intriguing favorites on the board this week.
Collin will get things started with a Big Ten matchup between Ohio State and Purdue, while I'll stay in Big Ten country as Penn State hosts Washington in a cross-country conference clash.
Let's take a look at our Week 11 college football predictions and favorite NCAAF favorites for Saturday, Nov. 9.
Collin Wilson: Ohio State -38 vs. Purdue
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+38 -110 | 53 -110o / -110u | +5000 |
| Ohio State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-38 -110 | 53 -110o / -110u | -100000 |
I'm gonna go with Ohio State for my overdog here.
I believe the College Football Playoff committee has created a beauty contest for teams that are ranked fifth to 11th and aren't in pole position to win their conference championship.
Now, Ohio State can definitely get to the Big Ten Championship, but in case it doesn't win and falls to two losses, it needs serious style points. Well, matchups against Purdue are where a lot of teams are picking up plenty of style points.
Notre Dame put up 66 on the Boilermakers earlier this year, and the last time Purdue went on the road in Big Ten play, it gave up 50 points to the offenses of Illinois and Wisconsin.
These two teams are on completely opposite sides of the spectrum when it comes to the passing game. Ohio State ranks second nationally in Passing Success Rate, and Purdue comes in at 129th in Passing Success Rate allowed.
The same is true when it comes to Rushing Success: Ohio State sits at 11th with Purdue at 71st.
For what it's worth the Buckeyes also rank top-15 in both categories on the defensive side of the ball.
This is a "name your score" game. That's exactly what Ohio State needs with its current positioning in the College Football Playoff rankings.
I got down on 37.5 and put it in the Action Network app. I think it's at 38 now, and I'd still buy it there.
Stuckey: Penn State -13 vs. Washington
| Washington Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | +400 |
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -550 |
This is a brutal spot for Washington, which has to travel across the country again to take on Penn State at home off of a loss in a prime-time "White Out" game in Happy Valley.
Over the past six weeks, UW has also traveled to road games against Rutgers, Iowa and Indiana with the latter two each ending as losses by at least two touchdowns.
It's also worth noting the Huskies definitely got a bit fortunate last week in their five-point win over USC. They were outgained by almost 100 total yards but benefited from a +3 turnover margin and two fourth-down stops late in the game.
That unit was also on the field for 80 plays, which could lead to some fatigue this week in Happy Valley.
From a matchup perspective, Penn State's terrific running back tandem should run at will on Washington, which ranks 92nd in EPA per Rush.
The Huskies feature one of the nation's elite pass defenses, but that strength is neutered a bit considering PSU's primary weakness lies at the wide receiver position.
On the other side of the ball, Washington has a very good offense, but it still doesn't do the little things right.
Penn State should also dominate the line of scrimmage against an overmatched Washington offensive line. That will likely lead to a key mistake or two from quarterback Will Rogers, which should allow the Nittany Lions to build margin.
I'm not a huge fan of laying points with this methodical Penn State offense that just hasn't passed the smell test in 2024, and I don't love backing teams off of marquee losses in the so-called "angry role."
However, this is not a great spot or matchup for Washington in a game I project at over two touchdowns.
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