The Virginia Tech Hokies take on the Florida State Seminoles in Tallahassee on Saturday, Nov. 15. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on the ACC Network.
Florida State is favored by 14 points on the spread with a moneyline of -550. Virginia Tech, meanwhile, enters as a +14 underdog and is +400 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 55 total points.
Here’s my Virginia Tech vs. Florida State prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 15.
Virginia Tech Hokies vs Florida State Seminoles Prediction, Picks
- Virginia Tech vs. Florida State Pick: Virginia Tech +14
My Florida State vs. Virginia Tech best bet is on the Hokies to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Virginia Tech vs Florida State Odds, Line, Spread
| VA Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 +100 | 55.5 -105o / -115u | +430 |
| Florida St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -122 | 55.5 -105o / -115u | -590 |
Virginia Tech vs Florida State NCAAF Preview
Virginia Tech Hokies Betting Preview
Virginia Tech’s identity is built around a rushing attack that ranks inside the top 10 nationally in EPA/Rush.
That strength is primed to give Florida State real problems because the Seminoles’ rush defense has been middling at best, sitting around the low 60s nationally with a neutral EPA/Rush profile that has repeatedly allowed opponents to stay ahead of schedule.
That’s crucial because a run-heavy, clock-chewing approach limits the number of possessions, reduces variance and forces Florida State to execute consistently on offense. That’s something it has failed to do this season, especially early in games.
And while the Hokies’ pass offense is subpar, their early-down efficiency suggests they’re far more capable of moving the ball than their Pass EPA ranking suggests, especially against a Seminoles defense that has been inconsistent on early downs (-0.03 EPA/Play) and often lets opponents extend drives through manageable third-down situations.
On the other hand, yes, Florida State has the statistical edge with its offense, with a Pass EPA and Rush EPA that both rank in the top 40.
Still, context matters, as several key offensive contributors have been battling injuries, making this unit far more volatile and rhythm-dependent.
It also typically starts most of its drives deep in its own territory, which has quietly forced it to piece together longer drives than it’s built for, especially with an offensive line that has shown cracks whenever it’s not fully intact.
Florida State Seminoles Betting Preview
Folks, we're at the point in the season where teams have already started to quit. I'm here to announce that the Florida State Seminoles are firmly on quit watch entering the week.
The 'Noles just got smoked by a mediocre Clemson team last week.
The more you dig into this matchup, the clearer it becomes that Virginia Tech +14 is one of those underdog spots where the number is inflated by public perception rather than what these teams are actually putting on the field right now.
When you layer in Florida State’s current trajectory, this becomes an even stronger play.
Virginia Tech vs Florida State Pick, Best Bets
Florida State has looked flat multiple times this season, especially at home, where the energy swings wildly depending on how cleanly it starts.
If the Seminoles start flat again and VA Tech's run game starts dictating the pace, this spread sets up perfectly for a Hokie cover.
Tech doesn’t need to dominate here; it needs to keep the game within reach, limit explosive plays and lean into its run-game efficiency to stay inside the number.
When you combine its ball-control blueprint, FSU’s injury uncertainty, the emotional volatility of a Seminole team that hasn’t shown a full 60-minute effort in weeks and a line that gives Virginia Tech a legitimate backdoor chance, +14 becomes not just playable — it becomes the sharp side.
I’m confidently grabbing the points with the Hokies and trusting the matchup, the motivation gap and a Hokies team that has shown some pride under interim head coach Philip Montgomery.
Pick: Virginia Tech +14
