The UCLA Bruins (3-8) take on the No. 17 USC Trojans (8-3) in Los Angeles, California. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC.
USC is favored by 21.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -2000. UCLA, meanwhile, enters as a +21.5 underdog and is +1000 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 58.5 total points.
Here’s my UCLA vs. USC prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 29.
UCLA vs USC Prediction
- UCLA vs. USC Pick: USC -21.5
My USC vs. UCLA best bet is on the Trojans to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
UCLA vs USC Odds, Betting Lines, Total
| UCLA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+21 -110 | 58.5 -110o / -110u | +900 |
| USC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-21 -110 | 58.5 -110o / -110u | -2000 |
- UCLA vs USC Spread: USC -21.5, UCLA +21.5
- UCLA vs USC Over/Under: 58.5 Points
- UCLA vs USC Moneyline: UCLA +900, USC -2000
UCLA vs USC Game Predictions
Why UCLA Will Win
UCLA was a nice story for all of three weeks after one of the worst starts in program history (not even including the fact that it lost the first 1:1 QB swap of the NIL era).
The bad news is that I don't think it particularly matters who lines up under center for the Bruins. To say Nico Iamaleava has not lived up to the billing (that, to be fair, he and his camp mostly put on himself) would be an understatement.
The UCLA QB has a 74 PFF offensive grade, good for 74th (yes, I double-checked) in the country. If he's announced as definitely active, maybe we see this dip to 20.5. Maybe.
The main issue for this team lies on the defensive side of the ball. I'm not exaggerating when I say this may be the worst defensive team in the country. Certainly the Power 4. The Bruins rank (deep breath):
- 135th in Success Rate allowed
- 135th in Points Per Opportunity allowed
- 130th in total Havoc
- 135th in standard down allowed rate
- 126th in PFF Defensive Grade
That's not great.
The truly unfortunate thing is that they're incompetent against both the pass and the run. They rank:
- 129th in Pass PPA/Play allowed
- 135th in Pass Success Rate allowed
- 120th in Rush PPA/Play allowed
- 129th in Rush Success Rate allowed
Three of their last four opponents have scored 48 or more points. Their win over Penn State is looking worse and worse each year.
The best thing UCLA can do with this season is forget it happened.
Why USC Will Win
If you read the UCLA section and this is the first college football wagering article you've read all year (no shade, happy to have you), you may be hoping the Trojans don't have an offense good enough to take advantage of the inept Bruins defense.
Unfortunately, that's not the case.
The Trojans have one of the best offenses in the country, led by quarterback Jayden Maiava. Maiava has been the engine powering this USC offense, ranking 22nd in PFF grade. He's not a dink-and-dunk player either, ranking 12th in Big-Time Throw Rate.
There's really not a lot of hope for this Bruins defense. USC moves the ball efficiently, but it also has the capacity for big plays. The Trojans rank:
- 8th in Success Rate
- 7th in Points Per Opportunity
- 21st in explosiveness
- 25th in Havoc allowed
- 3rd in third-down offense
- 21st in PFF Offensive Grade
Unsurprisingly, USC excels at staying in front of the chains, ranking 10th in standard down rate. Even on the rare occasions when USC is behind the chains, Maiava has been more than poised enough to elevate the offense, as it ranks sixth in passing down Success Rate.
Look for a steady rate of run and pass, as USC runs the ball about 51% of the time. As mentioned, it doesn't really matter if teams run or pass the ball against UCLA; the really important thing is that you have 11 football players on the field.
Add in the fact that USC has scored 30 or more points in eight of its 11 games, and I'm confident in the Trojans running wild through Los Angeles.
How To Make My UCLA vs USC Picks and Best Bets
These are two teams in drastically different points in their season. While unlikely, USC ranks 17th in the country and may be telling itself that it has a chance at an at-large bid for the College Football Playoff.
Meanwhile, UCLA probably wants this season to be over as soon as possible.
USC has won 51 games in this series to UCLA's 34, and I expect that number to bump up to 52 for the Trojans by the end of the weekend. The only question is how many points they will win by.
USC head coach Lincoln Riley has expressed that he's 100% going to be back in 2026, which is a sharp contrast from UCLA' s fluid coaching situation. In the NIL era, I have to imagine a good number of these players have one foot out the door already.
I'll take the Trojans offense to run wild over the Bruins. This series has been relatively even as of late (2-2 in the last four years), but this game will not be close.
Pick: USC -21.5
How To Watch UCLA vs USC
- Location: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, CA
- Date: Saturday, November 29, 2025
- Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. ET
- TV: NBC
UCLA vs USC Betting Trends To Know
