It still feels weird seeing a Big Ten-SEC matchup on the calendar that features the UCLA Bruins (1-1, 0-1 Big Ten) and LSU Tigers (2-1, 1-0 SEC), but that’s where we find ourselves with conference realignment in 2024.
If not a compelling matchup on the field, fans will at least be treated to iconic Bruins blue and LSU purple on the same field.
UCLA’s first season in the Big Ten can best be defined as a failure to launch. The Bruins needed a late field goal to squeeze by Hawaii and had their doors blown off by Indiana last week in Pasadena.
LSU, meanwhile, escaped with a win over South Carolina last week in a game that it probably should have lost. However, that’s the type of game fans are accustomed to seeing Brian Kelly lose in his short tenure in the Bayou, so perhaps the Tigers are on a march in the right direction.
The line on this game has ballooned almost a full touchdown in favor of LSU since open. The Bruins have looked incompetent on offense this season, but are they really that much worse than LSU?
Let's dive into my UCLA vs. LSU predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Sept. 21.
UCLA vs. LSU Odds, Prediction, Pick
| UCLA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+21.5 -112 | 56.5 -115o / -105u | +980 |
| LSU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-21.5 -108 | 56.5 -115o / -105u | -1800 |
- LSU vs. UCLA Pick: LSU -24
SPREAD
I am betting the Tigers on the UCLA vs. LSU spread at LSU -24.
OVER/UNDER
I am not placing a wager on the total, which sits at 56.5.
MONEYLINE
While I think LSU will win in a blowout, I don't see any value on the moneyline.
PREDICTION
My UCLA-LSU best bet is on the point spread at LSU -24.
UCLA Betting Preview: On the Decline
Maybe that DeShaun Foster press conference at Big Ten Media Days was an accurate foreshadowing of what was in store for UCLA in 2024.
The Bruins aren’t only lucky to be 1-1 to this point of the season, but they’ve looked downright bad in the process.
The Eric Bieniemy-led offense has been a far cry from the type of rushing success that defined the Bruins in seasons past.
UCLA sits last in the Big Ten with 3.63 yards per carry and ranks 123rd in Rushing Success Rate. The Bruins have scored just a single rushing touchdown through two games, compared to last season when they averaged almost two a game.
Quarterback Ethan Garbers has seen a steep regression from 2023 as well. The senior quarterback is completing just 54.1% of his passes and has already thrown as many interceptions this season (3) as he did in 11 games last year.
With former defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn now wearing the red and gold of USC, UCLA's defense has also taken a step back. The Bruins lost six starters from their 2023 defense, and the growing pains have been clear.
Indiana’s Kurtis Rourke moved the ball with ease against UCLA last week, passing for over 300 yards and four touchdowns. The Hoosiers scored a touchdown on six of their first seven possessions that weren’t limited by the halftime clock — a big reason for the UCLA defense ranking 117th in Finishing Drives.
LSU Betting Preview: Pieces Coming Together?
Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good, and that was certainly the case last week for LSU at South Carolina.
The Tigers crawled out of a 17-0 hole to keep their playoff hopes in tact, and while the final score shows that LSU was lackluster, there are some positives to take away that point toward future success.
Perhaps the biggest development on that front was the emergence of freshman running back Caden Durham. Durham, who had previously played only 12 total snaps in LSU’s first two games, carried the rock 11 times for 98 yards and two touchdowns, the best individual rushing performance to date this season for the Tigers.
Durham’s continued success is much needed for an LSU team that racked up just 68 rushing yards against Nicholls and is facing a UCLA front seven that has struggled to bottle up the run at times this season.
Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier is no Jayden Daniels, but he certainly has not been holding the LSU offense back. The Tigers rank eighth in Pass Success and 24th in passing offense despite not having a certified stud at receiver yet like they've had the past several seasons.
The one clear area of improvement the Tigers needed to see in 2024 was on the defensive side of the ball, and LSU has made modest strides there.
While the surface-level box score shows the Gamecocks ran for 243 yards on the Tigers defense, a closer look shows they had a Success Rate of just 36%, with the majority of that yardage coming on explosive plays of 66 and 75 yards.
The secondary is still an area of concern, as USC’s Miller Moss demonstrated with over 10 yards per completion in Week 1, but Garber and the UCLA offense lack the type of aerial firepower to pose a similar threat.
LSU vs. UCLA Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how LSU and UCLA match up statistically:
UCLA Offense vs. LSU Defense
 |  Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 123 | 48 | |
| Line Yards | 69 | 53 | |
| Pass Success | 116 | 112 |  |
| Havoc | 92 | 22 | |
| Finishing Drives | 128 | 64 | |
| Quality Drives | 82 | 100 | |
LSU Offense vs. UCLA Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 117 | 60 | |
| Line Yards | 84 | 77 | |
| Pass Success | 8 | 107 | |
| Havoc | 23 | 6 | |
| Finishing Drives | 31 | 117 | |
| Quality Drives | 50 | 114 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 79 | 16 |
| PFF Coverage | 85 | 96 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 85 | 89 |
| Middle 8 | 57 | 41 |
| Seconds per Play | 31.1 (123) | 29.2 (99) |
| Rush Rate | 43% (129) | 40% (126) |
How to Bet My UCLA vs. LSU Prediction
Many saw LSU’s performance in Columbia as a cause for panic, but I don’t think it’s time to sound the sirens just yet — at least not against a struggling UCLA team.
This game has blowout potential written all over it, especially with an upward-trending LSU backfield that could take the Tigers offense to another level.
The LSU run defense is better than what the box score shows, and the Bruins have yet to really show any signs of life running the ball.
UCLA has scored two total touchdowns this season, and I don’t think it’ll find much more success — even against LSU's defense.
The Tigers are 9-2 against the spread at home under Kelly, and I think he’ll be motivated to keep the pedal to the metal at home in front of fans to assuage any doubts. Back the Tigers to win big.
Pick: LSU -24
How to Watch UCLA vs. LSU
| Location: | Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 21 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ABC |
LSU vs. UCLA Betting Trends
- UCLA has landed 41% of the bets but 51% of the money.
- The under has taken 82% of the tickets and generated 92% of the cash.
UCLA-LSU Weather
