The Toledo Rockets take on the Miami (Ohio) RedHawks in Oxford, Ohio, on Wednesday, Nov. 12. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Toledo is favored by 3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -185. Miami (OH), meanwhile, comes in as a +3.5 underdog and is +155 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 45.5 total points.
Here’s my Toledo vs. Miami (Ohio) prediction and college football picks for Wednesday, November 12.
Toledo Rockets vs Miami (Ohio) RedHawks Prediction, Picks
- Toledo vs. Miami (Ohio) Pick: Miami (OH) +4
My Miami (Ohio) vs. Toledo best bet is on the RedHawks to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Toledo vs Miami (Ohio) Odds, Lines, Spread
| Toledo Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -108 | 45.5 -105o / -115u | -192 |
| Miami (Ohio) Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -112 | 45.5 -105o / -115u | +164 |
- Toledo vs Miami (Ohio) Point Spread: Toledo -4.5, Miami (Ohio) +4.5
- Toledo vs Miami (Ohio) Total: 45.5 Total Points
- Toledo vs Miami (Ohio) ML: Toledo ML -192, Miami (Ohio) ML +164
Toledo vs Miami (Ohio) Preview
When Toledo Has the Ball
Two weeks ago, Toledo was a short favorite for a trip out west and fell to Washington State, 28-7. It then returned home to the Glass Bowl and cruised to a 42-3 win over Northern Illinois.
While it's just two weeks, they encapsulate the stark difference between Toledo's home and away splits this season.
Toledo is 5-0 at home while outscoring its opponents, 237-37. Meanwhile, it's 0-4 on the road while being outscored, 94-59.
This week will be a welcome opportunity for the Rockets to reverse those trends. They head to Miami (OH) just one game behind the four teams tied for first place, including the RedHawks.
If the Rockets pull out a win this week, it will likely be with quarterback Tucker Gleason leading the way.
The fifth-year senior is coming off a season-high 309 passing yards while going 25-for-31 with two touchdowns. The performance earned him MAC Offensive Player of the Week honors and a Manning Award Star of the Week with seven other quarterbacks.
Gleason ranks second in the MAC in passing yards and is tied for first in passing touchdowns. His top target has been Junior Vandeross III, who has 58 receptions for 705 yards and leads the MAC with nine touchdown receptions.
Running backs Chip Trayanum and Kenji Christian form a physical duo and are each over 400 rushing yards. Trayanum leads the team with eight rushing touchdowns.
While Toledo has sputtered offensively at times away from home, the defense has traveled, allowing just 285.8 total yards in road games while outgaining two of its opponents.
The Rockets lead the MAC in total defense (232.6 yards per game), defensive pass efficiency and turnover margin. They also rank second nationally in scoring defense, surrendering 14.6 points per game.
The unit is led by safety Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, who was named as one of 15 semifinalists for the Thorpe Award. The senior has 55 tackles, one sack, one interception and three forced fumbles this season.
When Miami (Ohio) Has the Ball
An interesting aspect of this game is the quarterback battle.
Dequan Finn started ahead of Gleason at Toledo for three years while amassing 8,679 total yards, 88 touchdowns and 23 interceptions. After a year at Baylor, he transferred back to the MAC and now finds himself at Miami (OH).
Finn struggled in the nonconference portion of the RedHawks' schedule, throwing two touchdowns and four interceptions against UNLV and a pair of Big Ten opponents. However, he has picked it up recently, as Miami has won four of its last five games.
He threw for a season-high 260 passing yards in the victory over Western Michigan and remains a threat with his legs. He has added 395 rushing yards and four touchdowns this season.
Wide receiver Kam Perry leads the team with 657 receiving yards and four touchdowns on a whopping 26.3 yards per reception. As a result, Miami (OH) ranks 13th in passing explosiveness.
Fellow wideout Cole Weaver has emerged over the last two weeks with 15 receptions for 190 yards, but the 6-foot-5 sophomore is still looking for his first touchdown of the season.
While the RedHawks defense may not rank as highly as the Rockets', they've been stingy in their own right. They're allowing 327.4 total yards per game, which ranks fourth. The RedHawks have kept five of their last seven opponents to 20 points or less.
How well they pressure Gleason will go a long way toward deciding the outcome of this game. Linebacker Adam Trick leads the team and ranks 12th in the nation with 6.5 sacks.
As a team, Miami (OH) sits 13th nationally with 26 sacks. Conversely, Toledo has allowed just 10 sacks, tied for 17th-fewest (with Miami, among others) and is tied for 19th in Havoc allowed.
Toledo vs Miami (Ohio) NCAAF Week 12 Pick
Both teams enter this matchup 6-3 against the spread. However, Toledo has gone just 1-3 ATS on the road, while Miami (OH) is 3-1 at home both straight up and against the spread.
Additionally, the RedHawks are building momentum down the stretch. Over their past seven games, they're averaging 30.1 points per game while giving up 19 per contest.
Toledo may be the better team in this game, but it hasn't shown up on the road. At +4, I have to back the home team and don't mind a sprinkle on the moneyline as well. For what it's worth, Miami (OH) has gone 20-3 over its last 23 MAC games.
Pick: Miami (OH) +4
Toledo vs Miami (Ohio) Trend to Know
