The Penn State Nittany Lions take on the UCLA Bruins in Pasadena, CA. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS.
Penn State is favored by -24.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -2500. The total is set at 49 points.
Here’s my Penn State vs. UCLA prediction and college football picks for Saturday, October 4.
Penn State Nittany Lions vs UCLA Bruins Prediction, Picks
- Penn State vs. UCLA Pick: Under 49.5
My UCLA vs. Penn State best bet is on the under. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Penn State vs UCLA Odds, Spread, Lines
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-24.5 -108 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -2400 |
| UCLA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+24.5 -112 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +1100 |
- Penn State vs UCLA Spread: Penn State -24.5, UCLA
- Penn State vs UCLA Over/Under: 48.5
- Penn State vs UCLA Moneyline: Penn State ML -2400, UCLA ML +1100
Penn State vs UCLA College Football Betting Preview
Penn State Nittany Lions Betting Preview
It's a tricky letdown spot for head coach James Franklin's team, which once again faltered in a big game last week. Oregon was by far the better team, and despite coming off a bye week, the Nittany Lions looked awful offensively.
Penn State’s offensive style has been efficient but methodical. The Nittany Lions rank 15th in EPA/rush (0.19) and thrive on the ground when benefiting from solid starting field position (their own 33, 10th nationally).
Their passing efficiency is modest (81st in EPA/pass, 0.04), but the offense consistently stays ahead of schedule with 0.15 EPA/play on early downs (23rd) and converts 59.3% of available yards (27th).
While not built on explosive plays, they effectively create long, sustained drives and avoid third-and-long situations (6.15 average 3rd down distance, 20th in the country).
Remember, Penn State got its first actual test of the season last week against Oregon, and it couldn't generate any consistent offense until the fourth quarter. Entering the fourth quarter, the Nittany Lions had less than 150 yards of total offense.
Defensively, this group is elite. The Nittany Lions are 32nd in EPA/pass allowed (-0.14), 10th in EPA/rush allowed (-0.21) and sit first in early-downs EPA/play allowed (-0.36).
Opponents rarely extend drives (30.8% available yards allowed, 17th) and often start in poor field position (own 24, fifth). This defense squeezes possessions and forces opponents into inefficient scripts.
It's a terrible spot for the Nittany Lions. They're coming off that emotional overtime loss against Oregon and now have to travel across the country to take on a dead-in-the-water 0-4 UCLA team.
I expect them to get the job done, but I'm very wary of whether they can accumulate an excessive number of points.
UCLA Bruins Betting Preview
UCLA has had a dumpster fire of a season thus far, and now it find itself as a near four-touchdown underdog at home against a top-10 team.
The Bruins offense has been inconsistent. While the run game flashes efficiency (0.15 EPA/rush, 24th), the passing attack ranks just 112th in EPA/pass (-0.14).
A lot of that is because of quarterback Nico Iamaleava's performance, as he has thrown only four touchdowns to three interceptions through four games thus far. They only mustered 14 points at Northwestern last week.
The Bruins generate 43.5% available yards (91st) and only 0.02 EPA/play on early downs (75th), limiting their ability to string together drives. Their average third-down distance (6.33, 33rd) is manageable, but the lack of passing consistency caps their ceiling against a top-tier Penn State defense.
Defensively, the Bruins have struggled across the board. They allow 0.28 EPA/pass (128th) and 0.14 EPA/rush (126th), and opponents convert a staggering 60.3% of third/fourth downs (135th).
Teams are generating 68.9% of available yards (last in FBS) against UCLA, and their early-down defense is bottom-tier (0.07 EPA/play allowed, 107th). Even if Penn State plays slower, UCLA’s defense offers little resistance.
This is one of the worst defenses in the country, but Penn State should take a run-heavy approach. I don't expect a ton of points, but there's no telling if UCLA will be able to muster any offensive success of their own.
Penn State vs UCLA NCAAF Week 6 Pick to Bet
Penn State has a decisive edge in the trenches, but its style is slow, physical and geared toward grinding long drives.
Against UCLA’s porous defense, the Nittany Lions will likely move the ball but methodically on the ground rather than with quick strikes.
On the other side, UCLA’s offense faces the nation’s first early-downs defense and will be forced into unfavorable situations all afternoon. Their run game might keep the Bruins afloat early, but sustained success is unlikely against Penn State’s front.
Even with UCLA’s defensive shortcomings, Penn State’s offensive tempo and UCLA’s inefficiency sets up a game with extended possessions and limited explosive scoring.
Given the situational spot for Penn State, this is a slam dunk under spot all the way.
Pick: Under 49.5
