Kentucky nearly pulled off the upset of the season last week, almost toppling Georgia at home.
Head coach Mark Stoops made the questionable decision to punt near midfield toward the end of the game, and it ended up costing the Wildcats any chance of sniffing the big upset.
Now, Kentucky (1-2, 0-2 SEC) has a home matchup against Ohio (2-1, 0-0 MAC) on Saturday afternoon at 12:45 p.m. ET on SEC Network.
The Wildcats enter the game as -20.5 favorite with an over/under of 42.5. To my surprise, many public bets have flooded the over.
Let's make some Ohio vs. Kentucky predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Sept. 21.
Ohio vs Kentucky Odds, Spread, Lines
| Ohio Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+19.5 -108 | 42.5 -112 / -108 | +800 |
| Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-19.5 -112 | 42.5 -112 / -108 | -1350 |
- Point Spread: Ohio +19.5 (-108) · Kentucky -19.5 (-112)
- Total: Over/Under 42.5
- Moneyline: Ohio +800 · Kentucky -1350
- Pick: Under 42.5
Ohio vs Kentucky Preview
Ohio Bobcats Betting Preview: Bobs in Trouble?
I expected Ohio to be a dark horse in the MAC heading into the season, but its 2-1 start has me questioning those thoughts. The Bobcats have yet to play a conference game, but they have not looked overly impressive — especially on offense.
Quarterback Parker Navarro has two touchdowns and four interceptions to begin the season, and two of those games came against Morgan State and South Alabama.
The Bobs' passing attack ranks 38th in Success Rate, but the EPA/Pass numbers suggest they should be worse.
Another issue is that they rank 111th in Havoc Allowed. Remember, the Wildcats just contained one of the best QBs in the country with their defensive front; I can only imagine what they'll do to the Bobs' offensive line.
Ohio also sits in the middle of the road in Finishing Drives and Quality Drives, so there are a lot of question marks about whether or not it will be able to capitalize when it crosses the 40-yard line.
Regardless, the offense ranks 72nd in Line Yards, so I wonder if the line will find a way to generate any push.
Defensively, the Bobcats have been excellent against the run and in the trench. But their strength of schedule indicates they could be in trouble.
Kentucky's offense is nowhere near lethal, but the concerns in the secondary make me think it could be a long game for a Bobs defense that ranks outside the top 100 in Havoc and Defensive Passing Success Rate.
I just don't see a path where they can control the ball long enough to flirt with an upset here. They've also struggled to keep their opponents out of the end zone when they cross the 40-yard line, which is never a good sign.
Kentucky Wildcats Betting Preview: Defense is the Story
The Wildcats look to quickly forget their tough loss to Georgia and have been gifted a soft matchup this week. Honestly, Kentucky should've won last week, but its offense refused to get into the end zone.
The defense is the story for the Cats, as they're an elite group. They rank in the top 20 in the following defensive metrics:
- Rushing Success Rate (18th)
- Line Yards (3rd)
- Havoc (3rd)
The Bobs have had mediocre success running the ball thus far, but they have yet to face a defensive front like this. I have a really hard time envisioning the Cats' defensive trench getting pushed around. They should dominate from the opening kick.
Quarterback Brock Vandergriff has completed 52.7% of his passes with three touchdowns and two picks. Granted, their schedule has been much tougher than most FBS teams thus far, but those are not encouraging numbers moving forward.
Besides, Kentucky primarily relied on its running game, which the coaching staff relies on 65% of the time. The Wildcats are top-25 nationally in rush rate and are among the slowest offenses in the nation.
In the third phase, their special teams have been elite thus far and should help the defense out if the offense is struggling early.
There's no way I want to lay over 20 points with the state of the offense, but I could totally envision the defense pitching a shutout here.
Ohio vs Kentucky Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Ohio and Kentucky match up statistically:
Ohio Offense vs. Kentucky Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 55 | 18 | |
| Line Yards | 72 | 3 | |
| Pass Success | 38 | 98 | |
| Havoc | 111 | 3 | |
| Finishing Drives | 68 | 81 | |
| Quality Drives | 72 | 45 | |
Kentucky Offense vs. Ohio Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 18 | 25 | |
| Line Yards | 42 | 39 |  |
| Pass Success | 131 | 106 | |
| Havoc | 121 | 74 | |
| Finishing Drives | 99 | 92 | |
| Quality Drives | 51 | 89 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 14 | 76 |
| PFF Coverage | 84 | 69 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 52 | 4 |
| Middle 8 | 94 | 20 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.1 (100) | 29.5 (107) |
| Rush Rate | 60% (40) | 65% (22) |
Ohio vs Kentucky Pick & Prediction
It may seem too good to be true, but it's really tough to take anything here but the under. Both offenses fit the mold to go at a snail's pace, as they're both outside the top 100 in seconds per play.
The Bobcats defense worries me in the secondary, but I wouldn't expect the Wildcats to throw the ball that much. Both offenses should have to grind the clock to capitalize, so there shouldn't be many explosive plays.
I trust the Cats defense a lot more, and honestly, I wouldn't be shocked to see the Bobs get shut out here.
The only way I see the game going over is if Navarro hands Kentucky a few gifts via turnovers.
Pick: Under 42.5 (Play to 41.5)
How to Watch Ohio vs Kentucky Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Kroger Field, Lexington, KY |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 21 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12:45 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | SEC Network |
Ohio vs Kentucky Betting Trends
Kentucky has landed 69% of the tickets but has generated a whopping 97% of the money.
The under has been the clear sharp side here, taking 28% of the bets and 63% of the money.
Ohio vs Kentucky Weather
