Notre Dame looks to rebound from a stunning upset at home when the Fighting Irish travel to take on their rivals Purdue in West Lafayette, Indiana.
The Irish fell as four-touchdown favorites at home to Northern Illinois on Saturday, which is one of the biggest upsets in college football in the last five years. The loss puts them in a position where they now have to be perfect for the remainder of their schedule to get to the College Football Playoff.
Losses like this hurt even worse because they are not tied to a conference. They don't have a potential conference championship game at the end of the season to sway voters, so they must hammer Purdue on Saturday and get their season back on the right track.
Purdue is coming off a bye after hammering Indiana State 49-0 in Week 1, but the Boilermakers are projected to finish near the bottom of the Big Ten. This is Ryan Walters' second season in West Lafayette, and the first was rough, with the Boilermakers only winning four games.
There is more continuity this year on the offensive side of the ball, but they are not close to the talent level of their opponents coming into this game and have lost eight straight to the Irish.
Let's dive into my Notre Dame vs Purdue prediction for Saturday, Sept. 14 below.
My Notre Dame vs Purdue Picks
All of the changes to the Purdue front seven have me worried about them stopping Notre Dame's rushing attack, so I will target the Boilermakers' lackluster offense.
Notre Dame vs Purdue Prediction: Purdue Team Total Under 17.5 (+100 via bet365)
Notre Dame vs Purdue Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Notre Dame Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -290 |
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +235 |
- Point Spread: Notre Dame -7.5 (-110), Purdue +7.5 (-110)
- Total: 47.5 (-110 both ways)
- Moneyline: Notre Dame -290, Purdue +235
Notre Dame Football vs Purdue Football Preview
Notre Dame Fighting Irish Betting Preview: Bounce Back Expected From D-Line
Things did not go well for Notre Dame offensively on Saturday against Northern Illinois. Riley Leonard is a good quarterback rusher, but he's limited as a downfield passer. He went 20-for-33 passing with only 163 yards and two interceptions.
The key for Notre Dame to succeed on offense is establishing the run. The Irish were able to do that in their opening game against Texas A&M, as Leonard and Jeremiyah Love both averaged over five yards per carry, which took the pressure off of Leonard having to throw the ball downfield at a high rate.
Mike Denbrock was supposed to be the perfect offensive coordinator for Riley Leonard after the success he had with Jayden Daniels at LSU in 2023. Quarterback runs are key for the Notre Dame offense to be successful, and Leonard was completely shut down against Northern Illinois.
Purdue was one of the best teams against quarterback-designed runs last year, ranking fourth in EPA per Rush allowed against those concepts, per Sports Info Solutions.
Notre Dame's defense wasn't that good against Northern Illinois, allowing a MAC team to move the ball at will and throw all over the secondary.
Because Northern Illinois established the run, Eli Hampton could average almost 10 yards per attempt on only 19 pass attempts, which is concerning.
The performance doesn't make much sense because Notre Dame has one of the best defensive lines in college football. The Irish have three returning starters from last season when they ranked 18th nationally in defensive line yards and 23rd in Stuff Rate.
They are facing a really bad Purdue rushing offense, so I expect a big bounce back here — look for the Irish to control the line of scrimmage.
Purdue Boilermakers Betting Preview: Bad at Establishing the Run
Purdue does have a lot of production coming back on the offensive side of the ball, but its offense was terrible last season.
The Boilermakers put up more than 20 points in only five of their 12 games, and a lot of that had to do with Hudson Card's play at quarterback.
The Texas transfer could only average 6.5 yards per attempt in 2023, with a PFF passing grade of 71.7.
Among the 200 quarterbacks who attempted at least 100 passes last season, Card finished 116th in EPA per Pass and only had a 65.6% on-target percentage, which ranked 107th in college football.
The problem is that he's much better in the short passing game and isn't really a great downfield passer. On passes over 20 yards last year, he only had a 68.6 PFF passing grade — and throwing downfield is going to be required against Notre Dame's secondary.
Purdue does have four starters back on its offensive line, but they were incredibly poor at establishing the run the last year. As a unit, they finished 102nd in stuff rate allowed and 94th in PFF's run-blocking grade.
Maybe more concerning was how poor they were in short-yardage situations. Power Success Rate measures the percentage of running plays on third or fourth down from two yards or less in which an offense converted into a first down.
Purdue was dead last in that category last year, and I don't see that drastically improving this year — especially in this game against Notre Dame's defensive line.
Walters knows how to coach defense. The Boilermakers struggled a bit in his first season, but they were solid against the run. The Boilermakers finished 36th in EPA per Rush allowed, but their problem was giving up big plays.
They lost a lot in their front seven, but Walters brought in a lot of Power 4 transfers to not only fill the void but also add depth, so there really shouldn't be a big drop-off in their run defense.
The secondary was bad last year. They were outside the top 100 in EPA per Pass allowed, but they get three starters back, so they can only improve. Plus, they should be fine facing a limited passer like Leonard.
<span >How to Make College Football Picks For My Notre Dame vs Purdue Prediction</span>
This is a really interesting spot for Notre Dame.
The Irish were 16-point favorites when this line was available before the Northern Illinois game and now have dropped a full six points down to only 10.
There were some really concerning things that happened for the Irish in that game against Northern Illinois that I am not sure are immediately fixable.
Leonard is not a good downfield passer. That was very evident when he was at Duke and even more now at Notre Dame. Denbrock has to find a way to establish the run and get Leonard going on the ground, but that will be difficult against a Walters-led defense that was one of the best in the nation at defending quarterback-designed runs in 2023.
I'm unsure how Purdue can move the ball.
Northern Illinois ran the ball OK, but Purdue ranked 70th in EPA per Rush last season and is one of the worst teams in short-yardage situations. On top of that, the Boilermakers are also terrible once they cross the 40-yard line, as they ranked 116th in finishing drives in 2023.
If Purdue cannot run the ball, that will put a lot of pressure on Hudson Card to throw the ball downfield, which he is well below average at doing.
All of the changes to the Purdue front seven have me worried about them stopping Notre Dame's rushing attack, so I will target Purdue's offense. With their limited ability to run the ball effectively, I like the value on their team total under 16.5 at +100.
Pick: Purdue Team Total Under 17.5 (+100 via bet365)
<span >How to Watch Notre Dame vs Purdue: Streaming, Channel, Time</span>n
| Location: | Ross-Ade Stadium |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 14 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | CBS |
Purdue vs Notre Dame Betting Trends
- Both of Notre Dame's games this season have gone under the total.
- Likewise, the total in Purdue's lone game this season went under.
