The Hugh Freeze era could be winding down in Auburn after the Tigers suffered a bad loss to Cal last weekend. Auburn has built a proud program with tradition, but Freeze is starting to inch his way onto the hot seat.
Now, the Tigers are getting set to take on New Mexico with a new quarterback, as redshirt freshman Hank Brown is set to take over for incumbent starter Payton Thorne.
On the other side, New Mexico finds itself in the midst of a massive transition as a program. The Lobos might be headed in the right direction under new head coach Bronco Mendenhall, but the results don't he field say otherwise.
This has all the makings of an ugly game on paper, but let's see if we can uncover the best betting angle in our New Mexico vs. Auburn prediction for Saturday, Sept. 14.
New Mexico vs Auburn Prediction
My New Mexico-Auburn best bet is on the Tigers to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at Caesars, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
New Mexico vs Auburn Odds, Picks, Predictions
| New Mexico Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+24.5 -112 | 59.5 -110 / -110 | +1200 |
| Auburn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-24.5 -108 | 59.5 -110 / -110 | -2400 |
- Point Spread: New Mexico +24.5 (-112) · Auburn -24.5 (-108)
- Total: Over/Under 59.5
- Moneyline: New Mexico +1200 · Auburn -2400
- Pick:Auburn -28
New Mexico vs Auburn Preview
New Mexico Football
The Lobos have one of the worst defenses in the country, and they have a tall task ahead of them, facing Auburn on the road. It might seem like an easy spot to back them as four-touchdown 'dogs, but let's go over some of these defensive numbers.
The Lobos rank outside the top 125 in the following defensive categories:
- EPA/Pass
- EPA/Rush
- Available Yards Allowed
- Defensive Success Rate
- Third-Down Success Rate
I should also mention that their first game of the season came against Montana State, which is certainly a respectable FCS program. However, the Bobcats completely shredded the Lobos defense.
UNM then hung tough with Arizona in the early portion of the game before getting completely boat-raced despite covering the number.
The Lobos' only chance of keeping it competitive is targeting the Tigers' secondary. They rank 61st in EPA/Pass, and Auburn sits 94th in that category defensively.
But the Tigers could easily control the clock for the majority of the game, and the Lobos will have limited possessions to keep it within striking distance.
All it will take is for quarterback Devon Dampier to commit a couple of turnovers for the Tigers to make it ugly early on. The problem with a team like the Lobos is that they're tough to back as a big underdog, considering their defense can only hold up against some teams.
I realize they covered against a potent Arizona offense team, but the Tigers defense is far superior. They will happily play keep-away for the majority of the game.
I can't trust New Mexico — even when it's catching this many points.
Auburn Football
The Tigers were outplayed by Cal last week and lost embarrassingly as double-digit favorites. It's been a disastrous start to the Freeze era, and things appear to have worsened.
Auburn could not have played any worse last week, turning the ball over five times. Thorne contributed four interceptions to that total and remains unreliable as a passer. That's why the Tigers are making the switch to Brown, according to a report from On3's Justin Hokanson.
In a Music City Bowl loss to Maryland last season, Brown completed seven of his nine passing attempts for 132 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions. In 2024, he went 3-of-5 for 96 yards and two touchdowns in a 73-3 win over Alabama A&M.
The Tigers will likely remain a snail on offense, which isn't surprising given their rush-heavy approach.
Somehow, they rank 23rd in Offensive Success Rate, and it climbs to seventh on the ground.
Thorne and running back Jarquez Hunter handled the majority of the ground game, and both averaged over 7.5 yards per carry. Most of those came from their Week 1 contest Alabama A&M, which is worth noting.
The Tigers have a great matchup against the Lobos, who have been one of the worst teams in the country against the run. I'd expect Auburn to lean heavily on its run game again, especially given how bad Thorne was last week.
Defensively, the Tigers should completely outclass the Lobos offense. UNM's offensive numbers aren't too bad, but the Tigers are 44th in available yards and 15th in EPA/Rush Allowed.
They've also been excellent at preventing their opponents from moving the chains, which should continue here.
Given their schedule, it's tough to decipher how legitimate these numbers are, but there's no question the Lobos will be outclassed on Saturday.
New Mexico Lobos vs Auburn Tigers Prediction
This might be the smelliest pick I'll have for the entire year, but I'm laying four touchdowns with the Tigers. This is just a tremendous buy-low spot for them.
Nobody's running to the window to back Auburn after last week, and I especially like that a ton of sharp money has poured in on this team over the last couple of days. As of Thursday evening, the Tigers have landed only 7% of the tickets but have generated 59% of the money
Auburn could run a triple-option offense and still win the game by 30-40. It should shred UNM on the ground, preventing Thorne from making dumb mistakes through the air.
The Lobos have arguably the worst defense in the country, and I doubt they can keep up with the Tigers through the air. It's disgusting, but it's what I have to do.
Pick: Auburn -28 (Play to -30.5)
How to Watch New Mexico vs Auburn Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, AL |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 14 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPNU |
New Mexico vs Auburn Betting Trends
- Auburn has taken only 7% of the bets but has generated 59% of the money.
- The under has landed 80% of tickets and produced 89% of the handle.
New Mexico vs Auburn Weather
