There’s nothing like a Mountain West battle. We head to the City of Trees, where the Nevada Wolf Pack (3-7, 0-4 MWC) visit the 12th-ranked Boise State Broncos (7-1, 4-0).
Nevada hasn’t had it easy this season, falling victim to 3 straight losses, including last week against Colorado State by the score of 38-21.
Brendon Lewis and Cortez Braham were the only sources of offense it had, with Lewis throwing for 252 yards and running for 107 with 2 touchdowns. Braham, in turn, hauled in 9 receptions with 141 receiving yards.
It’s clear that the Broncos are the Mountain West's elite.
After battling against UNLV and winning, 29-24, they throttled San Diego State and its beautiful helmets by the score 56-24. Ashton Jeanty continues to be a mutant, while Maddux Madsen threw for over 300 yards and 4 touchdowns.
Where does the betting value lie? Read further for my Nevada vs. Boise State predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 9.
Nevada vs Boise State Odds
| Nevada Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+24 -110 | 60.5 -110o / -110u | +1350 |
| Boise State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-24 -110 | 60.5 -110o / -110u | -3500 |
- Nevada vs Boise State Spread: Nevada +24 (-110) · Boise State -24 (-110)
- Nevada vs Boise State Over/Under: 60.5 Points
- Nevada vs Boise State Moneyline: Nevada +1350 · Boise State -3500
Nevada vs Boise State Picks and Predictions
Prediction
My Nevada vs Boise State best bet is on the over, with the best line currently available at Caesars, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Moneyline
I'm passing on a moneyline wager.
Against the Spread
I'm passing on a spread wager
Over/Under
Nevada vs. Boise State Pick: Over 60.5
Nevada Wolf Pack vs Boise State Broncos College Football Preview
Why Nevada Could Win: Tons of Skill, Zero Execution
Bless Lewis’ heart. The kid is playing his tail off on a program that’s so far away from being legitimately competitive.
I rarely ignore metrics like Success Rate and PPA, but for Nevada, I will.
Lewis is a special player, completing 66.7% of his passes and running for 5.6 yards per carry. He has a strong arm, he’s accurate, and when all else fails (which occurs more often than not), he can scramble for positive yards.
Luckily for him, he’s had help on the offensive end, with Savion Red being a total machine on the ground, while the three-headed receiver monster of Braham, Jaden Smith and Marcus Bellon have created separation at a high level.
Nevada’s defensive miscues have been a major reason for this porous record. Not only do the Wolf Pack allow an average of 30 points per game (95th in FBS), but they’re 77th in passing yards allowed per game and 71st in rushing yards allowed.
That will not be good enough to stop Jeanty, who has yet to rush for less than 120 yards in a game.
Why Boise State Could Win: Among The Elite
Every week, it seems like Boise State just gets better and better.
If it weren’t for a 37-34 defeat against Oregon in Week 2, the Broncos would be undefeated. Aside from Jeanty, I have been encouraged by what I’ve seen from Madsen.
His Passing Down Success Rate isn’t very good (61st), but Madsen has done a wonderful job at limiting turnovers. He’s only thrown two interceptions and has completed passes at a 64% rate.
Having receivers like Cam Camper, Latrell Caples and tight end Matt Lauter makes Madsen’s job that much easier. However, because of Jeanty, the aerial attack comes secondary.
Sometimes, I feel like it’s redundant to mention it since Jeanty’s accomplishments are always highly touted, but I can’t get enough of the way he runs and storms through opposing defenses.
Nevada isn’t the best at stopping the run, so I’m curious to see how quickly it’ll take for him to reach 100 rushing yards.
I’ve never been keen on Boise State’s defense, and it hasn’t needed to make much of an impact this season. When your team is the second-highest-scoring program in the country, who needs defense?
Nevada vs Boise State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Nevada and Boise State match up statistically:
Nevada Offense vs. Boise State Defense
 |  Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 24 | 53 | |
| Line Yards | 58 | 48 | |
| Pass Success | 60 | 58 |  |
| Havoc | 49 | 10 | |
| Finishing Drives | 59 | 77 | |
| Quality Drives | 33 | 45 | |
Boise State Offense vs. Nevada Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 19 | 107 | |
| Line Yards | 34 | 77 | |
| Pass Success | 8 | 55 | |
| Havoc | 6 | 83 | |
| Finishing Drives | 1 | 107 | |
| Quality Drives | 10 | 127 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 130 | 128 |
| PFF Coverage | 41 | 18 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 130 | 79 |
| Middle 8 | 83 | 22 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.7 (121) | 27.5 (80) |
| Rush Rate | 59% (34) | 56% (40) |
How To Make College Football Picks For My Nevada vs Boise State Prediction
I thought about taking Nevada to cover the spread because of my affinity for Lewis, but I don’t feel comfortable doing so. The Wolf Pack need to figure themselves out on defense before I can back them.
The over makes a lot more sense to me. Combining both teams, they have hit the over 12 times out of 18.
Defense is clearly a nonfactor and each team has a dynamic playmaker who can run up the score.
Nothing’s ever a lock, but I’m very comfortable backing this, and as I’ve mentioned in past articles, feel free to chirp me on Twitter if this doesn’t hit.
Pick: Over 60.5
Nevada vs Boise State Start Time, TV Channel, How to Watch
| Location: | Albertsons Stadium, Boise, ID |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 9 |
| Kickoff Time: | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | FOX |
Nevada takes on Boise State on Saturday at 8 p.m. ET on FOX.
Nevada vs Boise State Betting Trends
- 74% of bets and 85% of the money are on Nevada to cover the spread
- 95% of bets and 34% of the money on the moneyline are on Boise State to win outright
- 44% of bets and 76% of the money are on the over
Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.
Nevada vs Boise State Weather
